Can Vita Outsell Sega's GameGear LTD?

[Nirvana_Nut85]

Michael-5 said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

Michael-5 said:

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

As YOY sales of the Playstation Vita begin to drop  into unforseen levels and with the absolute lack or interest for that matter of Sony themselves in developing any significant software for the platform,

Vita is selling better in 2014 then in 2013. Sold 30k this week in Japan alone, last year it sold only 14k. Plus WW sales ending the week of January 4th show Vita selling 140k (53% better then last years 90k).

So if Vita sold over 3 million last year, and is currently at 7 million, that pretty much guarentees 10 million. All it would have to do is still be on the market in 2015, and not drop over 66% in sales to top the GameGear.

From what I read Vita is selling about as well as Gamecube did, so 20 million is very likely. That's more then eny Sega (except the Genesis) managed to sell.

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Also GameGear sold 10.62 million, that 11 million on Wikipedia is an approximation after rounding.

Yes, the Final Fantasy X bump has provided some temporary help but I do not forsee that lasting too long and should lead to sales going back down to normal levels like the Wii U.

Your assumption is that it will move 3 million this year with less compelling software than the previous 2 years (minus a few gems for Japan). In my mind I do not understand that logic as software sells hardware.

I believe it is far more plausible that Vita will maintain a 30% decline again for this year and can see Sony discontinuing it  mid 2015 and going back to the drawing board. There is no point in keeping it afloat after that point. Therefore it is a reasobnable estimate to believe it will sell less than GameGear.

As for selling on par with GameCube, can you link those YoY numbers as I am interested to see that.

Well I disagree on less compelling software, FFX has yet to release outside of Japan, and I think that's the best game for the Vita. Plus Western gamers will see Gravity Rush 2, Freedom Wars.

As for Gamecube, on second glace Vita is noticably below Gamecube at the same time period. Gamecube sold about 10 million units in 2 years (including 3 holidays seasons) Vita sold 7 million in 10 years (including only 2 holiday seasons since it released in February). Still Gamecube sales only fell 10% during the third year, and if Vita followed the exact same pattern as Gamecube (by % drops annually) that would put Vita at

2.8 million in 2014 (-10% from 3.1 million)
2.2 million in 2015 (-20%)
1.3 million in 2016 (-40%)
0.4 million in 2017 (-70%)

Total: 6.7 million + the 7 million it was at at the start of 2014. That's 13.7 million, which is weak.........especially considering how much bigger the market is now.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Nintendo_GameCube

Anyway, if anything the Vita is today GameGear. It's looking to sell a bit better, but considering the market has grown it's actually selling worse.

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30% of a drop for 2014 is too much, especially now that that PS4+ Vita bundle exists. PS4 did boost Vita sales I recall, and FFX is a big deal. I think 14 million or so is likely, which is more then the Sega Master System (13 million)

Edit: I just realized that I compared Gamecubes fiscal years (March-March) to Vita's actual years (Jan-Dec). Still, the same pattern emerges, Vita should have 2 more years of decent sales before it drops.

FFX is a great game no doubt but I do not see it moving massive hardware in the West. Same goes with Gravity Rush 2 and Freedom Wars. They are not compelling enough to drive sales of the Vita, especially in the West. I wouldn't put my money on either of those games as being system sellers.

Let's say hypothetically, the Vita manages to only drop 10-15% instead of improving sales. Do you really think Sony will invest any more money in developing games for it? I highly doubt it as it would not be worth the investment. They literally would need a significant increase in order to make it viable to do so as I bet you it cost more to make AAA games for the platform then what the returns are. Again, lets just say they managed the slight drop your hoping for, I could still see them discontinuing production by next year which would in turn create the possibility of selling under 11 million units.

I would also like to point out that 2nd year sales of the gamecube increased 34% compared to the 1st year whereas the 3rd year dropped 13% compared to the 2nd. Vita is the opposite with a 30% drop in it's 2nd year. You also have to admit that Uncharted, LBP,Persona 4,  Killzone, etc were much more compelling titles to get people to purchase the system than the "anticipated" titles of this year. If those titles could not sell the Vita to the public, do you really believe the games you listed will?