It will be 5 years. The only reason why Wii lasted longer was due to its heavy success and the fact that Nintendo didn't seem to get their act together early enough on Wii U software development. So approximately 4 more years from this November.

I am not at all sure the direction of their next console, but I am guessing they will retain the screen.

The 5/6 year lifespans are kinda arbitrary with Nintendo consoles, it's kinda like saying you've been married for 7 years when you've only lived with your wife for 5 of those 7 years and you haven't spoken with her in over a year.

Nintendo generally runs out of gas with their consoles by the end of year 4 and third parties are usually long gone by that point too.

It's hard for one company to support a console platform basically all on their own though.

Depends on how long they want the 3DS to keep going, since I think next-gen they will unify their hardware consoles, if not they will at lest unify software devlopment to a certain degree. Anyway I think 2016-2017.

Anyway I don't think ps4 and xbox one are going to last 10 years at all, they aren't beasts and MS and Sony aren't going to take big losses like in the early ps3/360 era.

They'll release a new console in 2016 imo.

tricky question. I'd be conservative and say 4 years, because with the unification of both handheld and home console teams, Nintendo may be up to something that will kill both the 3ds and wii u in the moment it gets announced. If you understand my hyperbole, that is.

fun facts of the graph in the OP: After the NES, everyone's got a d-pad, after the snes everyone console's got front (shoulder?) buttons, after the N64 everyone has got analog sticks.

After the Gamecube, everyone got a Playstation 2.

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I'm thinking 5 years until the successor which usually happens, so 2017. I agree with the idea that Nintendo will merge their hardware lines and will make a 'portable home-console' next gen, so the 3DS will be replaced in 2017 by that same next-gen product as well. Maybe they'll keep it around for a while though in case the next system fails as a replacement for handhelds. Full discontinuation for at least the WiiU should have happened by 2018.

Lol

6 years, but dont expect that last year to have 1st party SW. By then we will have a new portable which could double as a home console. All the focus will be on that.