Ah, to hell with it. Here are some thoughts on the Vita/3DS/Wii U, John Lucas. I already imagined you'd try that as a main road. I can go a bit deeper later on if anyone wants me to, but it's an okay train of thought for starters;
Why the Wii U is not the 3DS, by far
Now, to understand the relative and temporary success of the 3DS, one also has to look at the Vita and its dire fate.
The Playstation Vita had the horrible misfortune of releasing in the rising tide of the smartphone/tablet revolution and as fate would have it, it released with features and hardware that was very directly comparable to these devices, all the way down to the touch screen it uses.
Why is that a problem, you say?
Well, a dedicated handheld console plays games, first and foremost and everything else is secondary but the Vita insisted on trying to become a portable multi-tasker along the lines of the market leading mobiles/tablets.
A phone/tablet simply does all those things a lot better, and they are set in a market teeming with hardware revisions, software updates, myriad of applications designed specifically for these revisions and changes in functionality and, their greatest strength; they are an extension/evolution of two of the most important out-of home devices in our time; the cellphone and the laptop, both of which were always a lot broader in scope, impact and appeal than any console ever released.
A mobile phone in any form, at this point, probably has a close to 90-95% penetration rate in Western markets and laptops have been absolutely everywhere since the late 90’s.
What makes people forego a device such as the Vita in favor of an expensive smartphone or tablet?
Perceived value, convenience, and market constant through breadth of service, the perceived value of a smartphone simply cannot be beat in today’s consumer electronics market.
The Vita is a bumbling baboon in a flock of graceful gazelles, and it attempting to be a “pocket” sized PS3 as well shows that Sony are attempting market convergence here, they want Playstation gamers and mobile enthusiasts alike to pick up their product by offering what they imagine is a platform that can appeal to both.
They have no constant on either part, their non-gaming features offer nothing you can’t get in a better version elsewhere and with little breadth, the same goes for the gaming part; it offers no breadth or convenience and they have even chosen a hardware setup that requires an entirely different developer approach with the ARM setup, same as most smartphones (that aren’t receiving PS3 like games for many reasons). Basically, the Vita is a cluster of mistakes and a poor imagining of a platform that attempts the impossible; appealing to two entirely different markets by means of forced, poorly implemented convergence of concepts and philosophy.
What does any of this have to do with the 3DS and the Wii U? Well, it’s part of equation, the 3DS has no and never had any proper competition, it is the last remaining of its kind; the dedicated handheld. It has a dose of the above mentioned features as well but has the main effort concentrated around the gaming part and it offers decent constants by employing some Nintendo created online services in a market where there is no Sony or MS threat, and that are not dependent on outside influence to such an extent and it also has a good constant through good software support.
It also has the added advantage of Japan being a country very much moving away from home console and into more convenience territory.
Now, despite all that, the 3DS is still doing a lot worse than the DS and won’t come anywhere near the DS’ lifetime sales, especially with Japan moving more and more towards the mobile/tablet segment.
The Vita has already been devoured because it offered poor breadth, tried to force convergence where the 3DS was more aimed and it focused more heavily on non-gaming features.
The 3DS has bought itself an extra few years on the market due to being more directly aimed and better planned as a gaming platform, but the numbers are showing just how much harder the handheld market has gotten. Nintendo will be forced into playing on the away field in time; they will have to compete with companies that have massive pedigree, influence and appeal in the mobile convenience gaming segment.
What does that mean? That they’re in for a hard time, in the handheld division as well as the home console division. We’re already seeing this strain upon handhelds through their need for constant hardware revisions today in order to maintain sales and momentum.
What does any of this have to with the Wii U though? Well, see that’s the thing here, the Wii U actually has a lot more in common with the Vita than it does with the 3DS, especially from a marketing perspective and most of all where it counts the most; perceived value.
The Wii U is not only attempting market convergence, as I’ve mentioned before, but is also trying to compete a lot more heavily on non-gaming features than any other Nintendo consoles did (in fact; no other Nintendo console ever tried it at all) and it’s doing a horrible job at it.
It wants you to prefer Nintendo’s online solutions that still haven’t gotten around producing a proper account system, the Wii U also believes that it can offer streaming, browsing and social integration services that are on par with or beyond what the competition offer.
It has chosen a hardware architecture that has now been largely discarded by the gaming world by using a PowerPC CPU where all others have now gone fully x86 for the purposes of ease of development, making it stick out like a sore thumb (more on that in another section).
The Wii U is offering very little breadth of software, making it miss the market constant horribly and it does not have the casual audience to fall back on this time, they have long since jumped into the mobile/tablet market and won’t be coming back to home consoles, that would be stepping back in the convenience factor and considerably down into lower perceived value. We can clearly observe that Nintendo still don’t understand that this has happened, most simply by looking at their recent and ongoing ad campaign, which makes no attempt to conceal the fact that it is now aiming squarely at kids and families, and still they’re having enormous trouble shifting units.
First they attempt the convergence, failing that they then try to aim more directly at a more Wii-like customer base through advertising, attempting to sell the very product that has two ugly faces and half a brain!
Utterly and entirely mind-blowing failure at reading the market and strategy adjustment there, the core design of the product, with the Gamepad being the primary villain, is just not up to the task of competing with Playstation and Xbox on one side and mobile/tablets on the other.
What does all that result in though?
Failure to appeal, no amount of Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong, price cuts or advertising is going to prevent the core product from remaining the same. Why did the 3DS’ price cut help? Because there was an actual saleable product underneath the price tag with aim and appeal and no competition at all and coming off of the massive momentum and attention the original DS fronted and built.
Nintendo have stumbled on their own tradition and think that half-hearted attempts at mimicking the driving forces on the modern market will somehow create a mass appealing package that everyone would potentially want, again, the Gamepad being the primary example here.
A tablet with almost no tablet functionality and worse resolution, attached to a home console which severely limits the range, bulky and big with short battery time and buttons and analogue sticks attached to it, how did that even get past conceptual design? It’s a disastrous idea.
It offers a less appealing, less connective and functional and less refined version of a mock tablet or it offers an incredibly clunky alternative to a traditional controller. It’s not a genius mix of two; it’s a catastrophic miss on both. It is nothing like the Wii-mote in any way; it is not fresh, immersive, simple, compatible, elegant or clever in any kind of way.
To top it all off, Nintendo are trying to accomplish this from a seat of no influence and power and facing potentially huge competition and coming off of an inherited, unprecedented loss of trademark momentum from the Wii.
In many ways, it’s the opposite of the 3DS; less refined and with poor aim, no trademark momentum, failed convergence strategy and actual competition.
The 3DS made it; it managed to attain a level of decent sales under conditions far different.
Brand recognition; which other company has held a throne as long as Nintendo has in the handheld market? Ever since the Gameboy, they have essentially been the market.
Absolutely no competition to speak of; as we already established, the Vita is a massive failure and everyone knows it. The PSP took a shot and did okay but is no longer a factor, obviously, it was also a product with aim and purpose and an actual set demographic.
Aim and appeal; the 3DS is aimed more or less exactly at the very same people who bought and loved the DS, they built the 3DS on existing concepts and actually even improved upon some of them, all the while maintaining focus with a particular demographic in mind. The original PSP was also much closer to the DS/3DS in this sense than the Vita ever was and had a clear cut identity.
Pedigree; the 3DS plays on Nintendo inherent strength when it comes to developing hardware with a unique flair and look and the concept is smart and even incorporates a modern market factor in a near revolutionary way with its goggle free 3D output, while the Wii U is stumbling around with touch controls and is actually using “can be used a TV remote!!!” as a marketable trait.
If one fails to see the differences and the impact they have, you have no place discussing anything sales, marketing or gaming related.
Now this is Nintendo’s effort on an arena they have owned and controlled all along and is still proving challenging under these circumstances, while the Wii U is trying to conquer, or at this point, become visible on several arenas where they have no support, pedigree or knowledge. Their experience over the years have pretty much taught them a philosophical version Microsoft’s more tangible approach; where Microsoft simply think “a problem, throw money at it”, Nintendo are saying “a problem, throw Mario at it”.
The Wii U doesn’t improve upon any concept, it moved away from Nintendo’s own sense and effort in implementing motion gaming and instead chases after a market that is already filled and very, very poised at the moment with their lackluster touchscreen attempt.
It is certainly not a good alternative to good old controllers either, the Gamepad’s size, weight and button layout makes for a pretty unwieldy and less than ergonomic device and the screen appears superfluous at best.
The online capabilities makes use of very few unified standards and their own standards are obscure at best; Nintendo have no pedigree at all in creating competing online environments, catering to social integration and braiding an OS into multiple functions and branches (as became painfully evident upon launch, the OS was historically sluggish), among other things.
So, in essence, the Wii U is not philosophically sound as a Nintendo platform and it is not a viable alternative to the other, more precise consoles aimed at market constants, by far.
Where exactly does that leave it? Nowhere, it has literally no market and the charts reflect this notion. One can blame the lack of advertising, this one is about to become among the weakest of them all since this holiday season saw the biggest campaign Nintendo have had in many years to raise awareness and sales via TV, radio and even airline give-away’s and it evidently produced nothing but a record low for a console’s holiday sales. One can try to argue that it’s the price; this is a problem for several reasons; one being that stoic Nintendo fans such as John Lucas claimed that price is not a factor during the entire 7th generation. Another is that you can, once more, use the PS3 as an example, it sold 7.9 million in the first full year at an utterly ridiculous price.
One of the biggest problems with the price argument though is trying to turn this into “well, the PS3 and 360 are really, really cheap”, which means one would have to concede that the Wii U is competing with two generations where one is beating it on price and the other seemingly on nothing since the other two 8th gen consoles actually cost more and have poor line-up’s for now.
Ah, lack of games; another argument that can be shot down by, you guessed it, using the PS3 as an example again, it had a bunch of really shit and inconsequential software (such as Lair, "shudder") to drive the 7.9 million sales of the first full calendar year.
“It will pick up steam and rise amazingly in sales”; based on what? It has no chance at the constant, not even through massive 1st party efforts since development cycles are so much longer this time around and Nintendo refusing to diverge outside the comfort zone or acquire outside talent (2nd party) and 3rd parties will simply never care.
Will it sell on Mario? The very same one that cause the N64 and Gamecube to have such amazing sales?
A new Wii Fit (currently selling about 1500 units per week in the supposed strongest Wii U market...) or Wii Sports? Aimed at who exactly? The ones who have long since jumped into mobile/tablet or social/browser based gaming?
Have you seen all the fitness apps available for phones and tablets, there’s a huge market for it there and with every such craze being dominated by this segment of the market, there’s less and less for other platforms and segments to seize. Look up the sales of Wii Fit U and weep.
The Gamepad will stand there, like Gandalf on the bridge, ensuring that no casuals “shall pass” into the realm of the Wii U, and if they do try to cross, they will stumble into the abyss of lacking breadth and aim and tear Gandalf with them into the underworld, and he will resurrect into the next Nintendo console.
Shit, that’s exactly what’s going to happen, isn’t it?
Nintendo will sell Mario to the Mario fans of the days of yore, they will abandon their attempt at trying to reel in the usual One/PS4 gamer with games like Bayonetta 2, especially when that and all other attempts result in less than 400k sales lifetime, then they will foolishly try to regain the Wii’s casual base by bombarding their platform with Wii Sports, Wii Party and other, similar fare that would have been lapped up in seconds on the Wii and launch a massive advertising drive to make sales (already happening).
They have gone from attempted convergence into attempted causal appeal by way of concepts and products that were designed from scratch to not be wholly compatible with this group of consumers. This isn’t a long shot; it’s a blank from an empty gun in a dark room with no one to hear it.
Edit; "keep your eye on Japan", not mentioned that much up here but I can tell you my first thought when you said that; "Yes, because Japan has certainly shown to be the most promising and susceptible market for home consoles lately." And it's not as if North America is currently the Wii U's strongest territory. Heck, it's not even true that the PS4 hasn't launched in Japan yet so Japan is a perfect illustration here! 
Holiday sales and launch hype are stupid measures for the One and PS4's future but holiday sales and a Japan without competition are a perfect measure of the Wii U's future. (Let's hope not, these holiday sales are not promising for a good 2014...).
Do you even think before you write? If this is what almost three weeks of writing produces from the think-tank, I think you need to change the water in it.
