So in the week ending December 8th the Wii U sold 49k in Japan.  In 2011 the week ending Dec 4th saw 3DS sales of 206k, week ending Dec 11th it was up to 350k.  When exactly was this 3DS like turnaround supposed to happen?

I really doubt that back in August you were arguing that we'd still be waiting for the turnaround in mid December.  Even if the Wii U magically matches 2011 3DS sales next week it will fall well short of 12 million for the year.

No, we will not. Even if this generation is a setback, Nintendo still have the potential to create sales phenomenons seemingly out of nowhere. As industry veteran, Warren Spector (someone who's been there from the very beginning), implied that you should never underestimate Nintendo. He implied that for a reason. 

There is a saying: The bigger they are, the harder they fall. In the case of Nintendo, they are a relatively small company with ridiculous revenues for their size. As an example; both MS and Sony have 100 000 + employees each. Nintendo? Less than 6000. When Nintendo stumbles it wont affect them nearly as much as a megacorporation - thats why they can continue to survive even through setbacks. 

The PS3 was selling almost four times as much only a few weeks ago. John Lucas is using the good old; "Wow, look at that incredible increase! Incoming domination!" while I'm thinking; how the hell does a console in its first year on the market manage even a baseline of 2.800 units on an October week, following a price cut to begin with? How is it possible to reach that state of poor appeal? I've never heard of such a thing.

The numbers in Japan (and the rest of the world) will likely sink right back down again in January and stay there until something big releases, when it will spike for 3-4 weeks and plunge straight back again. Why? Because the Wii U's main problem is a fundamental lack of appeal.

In the home console arena, what 'phenomenons' other than Wii have they had? Sure their first console sold well but it was still only 60m, with weak competition. I wouldn't say that was a phenomenon, every console after that continued to fall.

Handhelds, now they've been impressive, undeniable. But Mobiles and tablets are here now and they're clearly eating into the marketshare, they're never going away either. Right now they're not even remotely capable of 'decent' games, suposively. But who knows what will happen 10 years down the line. What happens when they can compete?

It'll be very interesting to see what Nintendo's next handheld sells.

Last year it did a solid 400k in Nov and again in Dec NPD, and plummeted to 57k in January (that was a vicious and sudden drop which was very telling). AFAIK there is no WiiU SW in January? The next big game is DK in mid Feb. So yeah, expect another year of sub 100k monthly, perhaps Mario kart with a price cut can do something. But these numbers are simply not good enough.

It's like when I enter the threads about WiiU getting a 100% increase or a 20k boost in Japan and get told off for shooting it down, I think some people have forgotton what good sales actually are.

Maybe JL got his decimals in the wrong place :P

January last year had launch hype (the Wii U had a good launch), New Super Mario Bros U (which has sold about 2.4 million until now) as the system seller and post-holiday drip that most consoles gain great benefits from.

However, it sank like a stone and didn't resurface, not even now, they're seeing the number 177.000 and saying it's such a large number. Yeah, if it was September or even January, it would be great even. First week of December? Middle of the holidays? No, just no. And, it's probably overtracked as well. If massive advertising, Super Mario 3D World, an avalanche of bundles and even a couple of casual games (Wii Fit U, Wii Party U) and a recent price cut only results in 177.000 units in the first week of December, things are really, really not rosy for Nintendo. There is no sign of a turnaround, there are plenty of signs of more of the same in 2014 though. January and Q1 overall be probably be really bad, and it still won't matter, we're gonna be told to wait some more, there's no hurry.

I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that the PS4 will sell more in Q1 than the Wii U does in Q1, Q2 and Q3 combined in 2014 and the One won't be terribly far behin the lead either. After all; why shouldn't my "wait and see" count as much? Especially with there actually be reason to think it possible, I think I'm making a decent case for myself in here.

I think Nintendo made it clear that the main and most important feature of the Gamepad is it's portability, to be able to play offscreen. The asymetric gameplay is just secondary.

To be honest, it is actually a clever strategy: Many households still have only one TV. (Believe me, Nintendo did a thorough market research on this). This means, if the TV is occupied, the one who wants to play is in a bad position unless he/she has a handheld. (As a matter of fact, many people don't like to play on the PC/Notebook, including myself and yes there are also smartphones and tablets but games on them just don't appeal long enough. Many people want to play dedicated games and even simple games have to be made dedicated to appeal for a longer time). The other point is, I'm sure Nintendo is pondering since years over the following question: "How do we get our handheld sales numbers on our home consoles?" The Nintendo Wii was a first step but its sales numbers still pale in comparison to the Nintendo DS. The logical answer was the Nintendo Wii U Gamepad. With that you have a genuine in-house handheld. You can play the big games from the home console on it on a very big handheld screen with good graphics! (I claim that most of the time people play with their handhelds at home anyway, so the disadvantage of the Gamepad of not being usable under way is neglectable).

So, in the most ideal case, the Nintendo Wii U appeals 1. to the Nintendo Wii gamers (as underneath the Nintendo Wii is still fully integrated and the Remote and Nunchuck are still an important part of the whole concept), 2. to all home console gamers and 3. to all handheld gamers. The only problem Nintendo has, is that they compete themselves on 3. with the Nintendo 3DS/2DS.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/television/average-us-household-has-25-tvs-15648/

3 second google search, average is 2.5 TV's per US household.

Rest of your post, you just don't get it. Far too simplistic. Evidently the sales don't back up anything you're saying either.

almost 2000 posts! Congrats doomsayers, blind fanboys, haters and lovers! I always knew we can do it!

Except it clearly doesn't. Or is it that this isn't an ideal case? What would constitute an ideal case?

Also, having off-screen play as a main selling point is pretty weak in my opinion. No, the Wii U is a botched attempt at market convergence and that cannot be changed by releasing software, it's really as simple as that. The Gamepad is a huge mistake and the idea of a single platform catering to everyone is sheer developer and manufacturer utopia and will never happen (the reasons why is described in detail in my longer posts).

Edit: "Congrats doomsayers, blind fanboys, haters and lovers! I always knew we can do it!" I don't consider myself any of those. This is part of the problem, like one of those youtube retards who some people have linked in here is droning on about; labelling everyone who opposes and idea or a strategy or an argument as a "hater" is one of the most base and vile things you can do in a debate and is a cheap tactic to discredit the poster.