Can 3DS pass DS in Japan?

So far the 3DS has sold 11.7 Million in Japan while the DS sold 33 Million to become the biggest selling system of all time there. The difference is currently 21.3 Million systems. 

I personally believe that eventually the 3DS can surpass the DS because it will have enough momentum to continue selling big numbers for a while. It is likely to attract a lot of the DS base and should take a good part of the PSP base as well due to getting certain series to come over to the 3DS. The biggest one is Monster Hunter. 

The 3DS should have a massive holiday in Japan because of its current library, as well as the release of major games. In September, Monster Hunter 4 will be released exclusively to the 3DS, and it will be followed by Pokemon X / Y in October and Mario Party shortly after.

This will likely create even more momentum going into 2014 and Nintendo will likely keep the support coming throughout next year and 2015.

What do you think?

Impossible, NDS will never be topped in Japan.

In case someone has forgotten what NDS was able to achieve when entered into beast mode, here are its weekly sales from November 21, 2005 to August 20, 2007:

21/11/2005     132,012  
28/11/2005     176,958  
05/12/2005     299,328  
12/12/2005     408,770  
19/12/2005     597,628  
26/12/2005     390,181  
02/01/2006     91,379  
09/01/2006     54,284  
16/01/2006     64,515  
23/01/2006     106,081  
30/01/2006     25,321  
06/02/2006     10,223  
13/02/2006     52,099  
20/02/2006     47,462  
27/02/2006     117,556  
06/03/2006     138,737  
13/03/2006     136,557  
20/03/2006     159,293  
27/03/2006     209,274  
03/04/2006     204,556  
10/04/2006     178,173  
17/04/2006     176,860  
24/04/2006     268,530  
01/05/2006     185,438  
08/05/2006     95,333  
15/05/2006     177,049  
22/05/2006     289,151  
29/05/2006     136,323  
05/06/2006     133,398  
12/06/2006     164,235  
19/06/2006     167,154  
26/06/2006     157,070  
03/07/2006     150,463  
10/07/2006     152,679  
17/07/2006     268,797  
24/07/2006     178,383  
31/07/2006     164,731  
07/08/2006     197,653  
14/08/2006     75,207  
21/08/2006     163,684  
28/08/2006     229,259  
04/09/2006     114,889  
11/09/2006     135,363  
18/09/2006     140,151  
25/09/2006     274,642  
02/10/2006     124,397  
09/10/2006     104,760  
16/10/2006     117,071  
23/10/2006     158,795  
30/10/2006     113,470  
06/11/2006     148,453  
13/11/2006     128,803  
20/11/2006     201,590  
27/11/2006     177,041  
04/12/2006     309,797  
11/12/2006     319,866  
18/12/2006     485,964  
25/12/2006     176,321  
01/01/2007     344,953  
08/01/2007     89,328  
15/01/2007     127,770  
22/01/2007     194,608  
29/01/2007     146,192  
05/02/2007     201,298  
12/02/2007     136,999  
19/02/2007     136,260  
26/02/2007     111,926  
05/03/2007     108,631  
12/03/2007     121,630  
19/03/2007     130,684  
26/03/2007     80,012  
02/04/2007     110,935  
09/04/2007     133,471  
16/04/2007     172,440  
23/04/2007     256,063  
30/04/2007     285,192  
07/05/2007     163,824  
14/05/2007     111,239  
21/05/2007     127,542  
28/05/2007     123,211  
04/06/2007     117,228  
11/06/2007     118,684  
18/06/2007     163,918  
25/06/2007     157,480  
02/07/2007     139,286  
09/07/2007     141,982  
16/07/2007     154,504  
23/07/2007     150,584  
30/07/2007     135,804  
06/08/2007     147,205  
13/08/2007     153,834  
20/08/2007     100,460

How much more life do you think it has in it? I would say that absolutely not enough to just about triple its current numbers.

what are the confirmed games next year?

super smash?

what else?
any 3d kirby?????

2013 is big for 3ds but how about 2014?

ehhhhh. It's not looking too good right now. It may have to settle for second place.

The DS was Nintendo's current HH from December 2004 to February 2011 in Japan which is 6 years and 2 months. I'd expect the 3DS to be their current HH for about the same length of time, especially considering 3DS has more advanced tech for its time and is still at a higher price than when DS launched. That means we'll likely see a 3DS successor in Late 2016 or Early 2017.

I think Nintendo will continue to give it good support in 2014 & 2015. (In Japan) 

considering it has no pokemon yet, possible for another 2 gens and a remake. we still dont have a new DQ which i believe will come to 3DS. MonHun 4 is coming up. yeah im going to say it will make it

There are bound to be several games releasing in 2014 to support the 3DS. We don't know them yet because, as of now, it's not completely vital that we do. (We are only around half way through 2013, so awhile away.)

I don't see it happening. While it's doing very well, all the tablet and mobile phone BS will eat into it further and further. Ninty supporting it in 2014/15 is a given, and a price cut could give it a nice boost - but still not enough to close so many sales until for example 2017... Advanced for its time is a debatable topic, especially when you look at what kind of graphics are produced by tablets and such. It was planned to be just powerful enough, though I'd agree that we'll start hearing of a successor in late 2016..

Unlikely. It will likely double the current figures but beating the DS? No way.