Is Mario Golf not big in Japan? Hot Shots Golf always seems to do well and that doesn't have Mario characters in.

If I remember correctly, SM3DW had sold 20% of it's stock first day as well and it ended up selling quite well. Legs > first day sales. Hopefully, tropical freeze has some strong legs.

Looks like someone set up a games shop in their living room :)

Selling out of the first shipment faster and get more shipments >>>>>>> Selling out the first shipment slowly after retailers discount the game.

In most cases you're absolutely right, but it seems to me that this is Nintendo's strategy for their big 1st party titles, stack 'em high and then let the natural legs of these games take over, selling through the shipment after a few months with very little discounting, as shown by how Nintendo game prices are usual extremely stable. Also if you look at their other recent 1st party games, they didn't do too hot first day but legged out to reasonable levels like Mario 3D World

Of course it can backfire if the demand just really isn't there or if they overestimate the shipment like they did a few years ago with Zelda: Spirit Tracks on DS which was overshipped and ended up in the bargain bin, but I'd wait before passing judgement on DK's prospects based on just this information

However, for what's it worth I don't think it will do all that well :(

3DW was not discount and sold very well in the "end"

It depend on console psp games point  generally to less then 1k but in contrast psv game generally translate to more then 1k.

The thing with 3D World was it had a whole holiday season and big advertising push behind it.

DKC doesn't have a holiday season behind it (Golden week is still 3 months away) and it doesn't seem like Nintendo is giving it a particularly big advertising push.

So although I can see how the situations between the games are similar (both platformers that sell through legs rather than front-loaded) I question how similar DKC's sales trajectory will actually be.

Yoshi's Island is a March release, and like I said befoe it's hard to be hyped for Bravely Second when Default just released.

So all we're left with is Smash Bros, which is available on WiiU, Persona (and I hate Dungeon crawlers) and Monster Hunter, which is niche in North America.

Where is the system seller? I guess it's Smash Bros this year, but :-/ Nothing interesting for me. All I want is DQVII, Advance Wars 3DS or a Metroid game.

Why are you bringing in America into this?

Yoshi will release in Summer in Japan and Bravely released 2 years ago as of this year and with a Director's Cut last year. I think that it should count.

Anyways, you forgot Kirby for May in America too and Nintendo will obviously announce more between now and E3 for a line-up later this year, so what's the problem?