first iron console confirmed?  I guess I'll wait for the slim model made of steel

hmm, depends on what the Nextbox brings. If MS makes something new and prices it competitively, then the casuals will buy the Nextbox and that should be enough for the Nextbox to win. BUT, if the Nextbox brings nothing new or enough for casuals to purchase the console, then I predict all 3 consoles will have a tough time, but the PS4 will win because its brand is very strong. Also, I don't see the PS4 being popular with casuals cause the console brings nothing more than improved graphics compared to the PS3.

Valyrian steel? 

So casuals are sell swords and core are bannermen?  Ship those Unsullied in from Essos Microsoft! 

If you can find a family sword to melt down sure

what about the social features?  Also it could have a lot of casual friendly software like LBP and LEGO games which, if pushed correctly, can catch on with casuals (ok maybe LEGO has run its course but LBP could be huge with a PS4 game and the new marketing team).  PSone and 2 connected with core gamers through the excellent exclusives but got a lot of casuals as well and they were basically just updated graphics (DVD on PS2 had some effect but I never heard of or met anyone who bought it as a DVD player with no games they planned to play).

PS4 if launched at $399

If the PS4 launches at $399 then it's DONE! They've won the generation

nope, if the ps4 wins, it won't be because of a 399 price tag.

Nintendo 3rd party is non-existent.

Nintendo 1st party should have a class of it's own. The Miyamoto class.

Ouya no doubt will take the throne and beat the big three