The system is highly priced, poorly advertised, and worst of all, software support has dried up for two months following launch. The Nintendo Direct last week was great, but to have any impact on the declining games, Nintendo should be announcing releases for April, May and June. It's all well and good to say games are coming, but how many people are going to jump in with that vague kind of promise?

Nintendo should have learnt with 3DS that a high price, soft launch will see a huge drop off in sales. More Nintendo games should have been ready to launch this quarter, with third party efforts and exclusives following in late spring/early summer.

Launching the basic bundle was also a waste of time. Trying to lure in a family market from launch at a comparatively high price with no pack-in game was a very, very poor decision, just like launching Nintendogs + Cats with the highly priced 3DS and expecting the wider audience to upgrade their hardware. Nintendo are treating their expanded audience like they treat their dedicated fans: releasing updates to existing franchises early on in the system's life span, expecting that fanbase to jump on board. That just won't work. Titles like Wii Fit, Nintendogs etc, and models like Wii U Basic, should be coming further down the line, once Nintendo have already built an install base among their hobbyist consumers, once Wii U is a more established entity, once the price of the hardware can be brought down. Furthermore, those titles (particularly things like Nintendo Land and Nintendogs) shoudn't command £40 to £50 pricetags--they should be price more competitively, because the market HAS changed and less hobbyist consumers are using to paying little or nothing for games. If Nintendo want to attract some of that audience, they need to wise up on their release timing and hardware bundling, rethink their advertising, and really introduce some much needed flexibility to their software pricing.

In the long-term Wii U should be fine, particularly in the second half of this year. In the worst case scenario, sales will only pick up around autumn with Zelda and (presumably) a big Mario title, and Nintendo may be forced to cut price before then, or even drop the basic bundle and then cut the deluxe price to the basic level.

Not enough fitness games for your mom.

Seriously, calling it Wii U was a hit or miss I think. On the one hand, you got brand recognition. People hear Wii and they go ape shit about it. On the other hand, with the only noticeable different feature to untrained eye being a fat tablet, it kind makes you go "Why do i need another wii when i got old wii, iPad, iPad mini and iPhone?"

Then again, the 3DS is selling like hot cakes. Who knows what is happening.

It seems very silly of you to shoot down his analysis when you make such a broad assumption that can never be proven or disproven. To claim that Nintendo could have "cruised" into best selling home console for several more years is a tad optimistic at best and downright folly at worst. The market moves forward and changes, regardless of what Nintendo does, they have simply proven that they are having a hard time keeping up and may well end up as a company that helped establish and expand a market they are henceforth unable to compete in (the casual market). The Wii's peak was long before Nintendo "abandoned support", the market was evolving naturally and freely, as it always has and as both you and Nintendo should know.

At least today, unlike a few years back, you have the guts to admit that Nintendo can make and have made, mistakes. My claims towards the Wii's probable fate should support have continued are just as valid and probable, I can make counter-claims that you cannot disprove.

In my opinion, the Wii was never destined to keep on moving at record pace and I believe I have said as much through all my 5,5 years in here, the very thing that the "haters" predicted actually came to pass; the Wii dropped off suddenly and hard in sales and the casuals moved on to greener pastures (i.e; tablets, phones and social gaming), the rise of the smartphone and tablet game coincides with the Wii's starting decline and this rise acclerated at the same upwards curve that the Wii sales' downwards curve showed. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what has happened to the Blue Ocean; there are new ships sailing it and Nintendo have been sent up a backwater creek with a flimsy paddle for aid, to top it all off; their boat has holes in it. And don't say; "well, they were lucky, no one could have known" etc, doesn't matter at this point what caused it, they were still right in the end. Some people even saw and spoke of the reasons why it would happen (yes, I was one of those people and I think a veteran like you would know as much).

What it does take to still defend their position and chances at this point is fierce loyalty, I admire your passion for games and all things gaming related but the simple fact of the matter is; Nintendo have completely misread the market(s), released a faulty product with narrow appeal, lost their casual userbase (that was never theirs to keep) and even managed to put themselves in a position to post fiscal losses two years in a row.

I remember all the "Nintendo know what they're doing", "just wait for X game", "wait for peripheral Y", "the price cut will send them skyrocketing again", "history shows -insert past trends and fancy graphs here-.", "3rd party support is coming, just wait and see". You were one of these people who liked to align launches, look at graphs, point out the logic of NES and SNES were market leaders, PS1 and PS2 as well, the Wii U is destined to be a market leader because the Wii was. You were also 100% assured that the Wii would outsell the PS2, it would fly past 50% marketshare, it would garner massive 3rd party support and never needed a price cut, it would even tripple the PS360 installed base combined and Nintendo would never, ever under any circumstance be the first to launch their 8th gen console, to think so was madness.

Guess what? You can discredit trestres' analysis all you want but there are two factors that make that look desperate right now; A: his analysis provides a logical and probable explanation for what's happening right now, and B: nearly all your analysis, predictions and assumptions for the past five years have failed.

And, before you go the same path as all the other arguing the same things; no, the Wii U does not have an extremely lackluster launch line-up (in fact; there were threads in this very site celebrating it as "the best ever for any console" right before the console launched), the 360 and PS3 both had worse line-up's, it is not the economy, people are shelling out more for consumer electronics than ever before so it has nothing to do with the price (hell, the PS3 managed better sales lacking it's biggest region and costing a ridiculous 600$ with software the likes of "Lair" to drive sales). One can note that the Wii U's line-up was hyped and celebrated before launch and then as sales plummeted, the line-up was suddenly shit. Even the sequel to a 26 million selling title doesn't matter, apparently, because its "too much like the other games in the franchise", however, a 3D Mario game which hasn't launched yet and generally sell less than , or around one third of New Super Mario games will have a massive impact despite it basically being the same as well. A 2D Mario was supposed to be the Wii's savior, according to many, nothing could drive sales like a good old 2D Mario platformer. This has lost all relevance now, a 2D Mario no longer has any impact, its almost magical! I guess Mario Kart won't matter either since its "more of the same", despite the prequel selling about 30 million so far. Zelda, though, the smallest of the three big Nintendo franchises, if only the Wii U launched with a new Zelda game it would have done a lot better, a new mainline Zelda game would likely net the win for the Wii U for 2013, these games manage between one third and one fourth of the New Super Mario franchise but they're somehow a lot better at moving system. Where is all this nonsense coming from? There is no logic behind these arguments at all.

The Wii U is rushed, incomplete and an utter mismatch for today's market, it meets few to no demands and desires and the famed 3DS turnaround will be nigh impossible based on a few simple things; the 3DS had no relevant competition at all, it was a desired product and actually had 3rd party support, in addition Nintendo could afford to (both towards investors and shame) lower the price and net small losses (cutting the Wii U's price already would issue panic orders to investors as well as the market). Much as the Wii was never the PS2, the Wii U is not the 3DS (or the Wii for that matter).

For all its worth to anyone; I fully support trestres' analysis, and its right in line with what I've been saying about the Wii U all along.

Right now, it's the lack of games, but I'd bet my lunch money that sales will drastically pick up after E3. I was sure Funky Barn was a system seller, but it looks like consumers need 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros., etc. to shell out big bucks. I don't really mind the wait because the Miiverse is ridiculously fun to talk to people on.

Rol; the most shallow assumption here is your continued insistence that 3rd parties would embrace the Wii. Nintendo produced a machine with a massive hardware discrepancy compared to the competition, so much so that it was near impossible and far from cost efficent since they basically had to build two entirely different engines and architectures to match the dated Wii's configuration. There was also lack of storage, online functionality, multimedia capability and the somewhat unappealing Wii-mote (for core gamers).

The Wii was constructed as a casual console to begin with, this is the key to it's success but also it's downfall and rapid decline. 3rd parties were forced to choose PS3/360/PC or Wii, the choice was simple for most. The development costs on the Wii were lower for sure but what does that help when the machine offers technology that moves backwards and is mainly purchased by people who likely won't buy your software at any rate? Selling 250.000 on the Wii or 2-3 million on the HD platforms was a real no-brainer in most instances.
Multiplatform development is a lot cheaper per platform than exclusives will ever be so the extra cost of making three versions with very similar structure and visual/audiovisual and feature output was manageable or neglible for many, especially for sequels which already had base engine in place and the possibilities with using an outsourced development engine and tools such Unreal Engine 3, Source Engine, Frostbyte, Red, White Engine and Cry-engine, these tools were near useless on the Wii's hardware since it lacked the most basic capacity to run them properly or at all.

Also, like I mentioned, the Wii peaked and started going down long before Nintendo cut back on support, that argument simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny. The few proper 3rd party offerings the Wii got did very poorly compared to their HD counterparts, leading to people like you shouting "FOUL!" and blaming the developers, claiming they gimped the versions or even sabotaged the Wii on purpose to damage it, as if developers would waste money to make a statement when the reailty was that cross platform development for Wii along with the HD consoles and PC was near impossible due to the hardware and differences in core audiences.

For many years you have harboured this illusion and paranoid view that all 3rd parties in the world were somehow daft and refused to publish on Nintendo consoles out of spite and childish petulance. The truth of the matter is simple; Nintendo are now in trouble with the Wii U because of design flaws and bad decisions, likewise the Nintendo Wii suffered from some bad design choices and decisions that ultimately lead to its downfall and historic decline that many saw was bound to happen (again, I was among those).

To you, it was logical to see things your way, all the while accusing others of wishful thinking and lack of depth perception in the market but you were blinded by your infatuation with the product right alongside all those other fans of other consoles you always critiqued.

The Wii was never destined to outsell the PS2, reach massive marketshare, tripple the HD console installed base or gain massive 3rd party support, it was all in the cards from launch, hell, the unveiling even. The difference was too vast, the strategy too bold, the product and its main body of customers too fickle.
Casual customers are the most fickle in the market, they are swayed by hype, news value, celebrity endorsement and gimmicks, this is the very basest of business logic and knowledge. The only reason you refuse to admit this is because it means that Nintendo have been systematically stupid for nearly a decade, like Sony have, a tought pill to swallow for sure.
Tablets and smartphones were underway and would have conquered the casual crowd regardless. Meanwhile, the core crowd were suffering from a split personality where they would claim on one hand that "third parties have screwed us, there are no proper games coming out for the Wii" and on the other that "I have too many games to finish, the offerings on this magnificent machine are simply too many and too good". Sort of turning in the direction the breeze happened to blow when it suited them, bragging ceaselessly and whining incessantly all at the same time, ending up looking fairly silly in the long run.
On this very site, most of the stoic Wii advocates all but disappeared when things didn't go their way and chose to fade away in silence rather than own up the grim truth; the Wii didn't turn out as the fairy tale they wished for and it was plain to see for everyone else that this was how it must end.

Could the Wii have had a longer life and done a lot better with proper support? Yes, of course. Could it ever reach any of your lofty goals and predictions under any circumstance? No, no it could not.

PS: Before you accuse me of any bias; I abandoned console gaming quite some time ago but I am shocked to see how many people still cling to their theories when they have been proven wrong time and time again and on near all accounts possible. Don't become a parody of yourself.

Tell that to john lucas and avinash LOL!

Rol; we never agreed on anything and likely never will. There's no sense arguing with a man who sees corporations as evil (3rd parties) people making decisions based on what basically equates to fanboys on Gamespot boards mentality.

Did I say the Wii was going to be a fad? Yes, I actually did. Every time I suggested that it would taper off in sales before and more quickly than the HD consoles someone (like you) would show me graphs and talk about what history proved and polarize the argument completely with statements like "Oh, so it will suddenly just stop selling completely?" or "So the sales will drop into Hades?" (actual statement in an old sales thread). Aligned launches and compared tracking was also popular. This was the full extent of your knowledge on the subject; graphs with past sales from other generations and assumptions based on past trends despite the market having evolved into something completely different. These graphs and charts and hindsight theories were the best effort you could produce. Oh, and quoting Maelstrom, of course, the most intelligent man on the planet (who also chose to go underwater when his predictions and analisys tanked) and the only one who "got it".

I have presented arguments and reasons why things are the way they are and I have predicted those very things in the past. Your analysis explain nothing and your past predictions have all failed, how does that strengthen your position and weaken mine? Why do your arguments weigh more heavily than mine?

I'll give you major kudos for not escaping the forums like so many others did when things turned sour, that takes balls. I have yet to understand how you can hinge your entire theory on 3rd party support though and how you could fail to see that the probability of the Wii getting good 3rd party support was slim at best. That alone shows me that your insight lies in the same territory as the ones who escaped; you had wishes and hopes that were never realized.

So did I though, you know what I wish? I wish the 7th generation as a whole wasn't the utter pile of crap I feel that it was. The greatest enemy of gaming as I love and know it? The Nintendo Wii? No. There are two other culprits, the ushers of Hollywood, QTE touting banalities in picture form. Just to make that clear.

I don't expect we'll agree on aything anyways, like I said earlier, we're too different you and I and maybe that's a good thing. There's only thing I do know; we should both worry about the sorry state of our hobby.

Just Dance 4 is already out.  It sold poorly.

Gamers who want revenge are not gamers...

Gamers who ridicule other people's game choices are not gamers either...