I'm a Nintendo investor and really appreciate this thread. I've been wanting to talk about some NTDOY shares.

So here's a question. American Nintendo shares (PINK:NTDOY), are ADR's (American Depository Receipts), which allow for American's to easily invest in foreign companies.

But the shares themselves are subject to currency exchange rates. As the Yen gets weaker, the value of NTDOY shares goes down. For example say $1 = Y50 and a Japanese Nintendo share trades at Y50/share. It costs you $1 to buy a Japanese share. Now the Yen weakens to $1 = Y100, and a Nintendo share is still Y50/share...you only get 1/2 a share, and the share you bought's only worth $.50.

But at the same time Nintendo's making a lot more money as the bulk of their sales is overseas. So the value of their stock should rise.

How do we judge as an american investor in (Nintendo), whether a weaker Yen is better? Seems to be a balance equation. My guess it depends A) What the exchange rate was when you purchased your shares B) How much profit is overseas.

Guessing under only some outlier circumstances, a Weaker Yen is better for American Nintendo investors. Anybody know for sure how to figure this out?

I own shares of Nintendo directly as well as via the ADR. There is a formula for the conversion, I will try to dig it up for you.  

Nintendo predicted that they would sell 5.5 million wii u's by march. not by the end of the year.

yes, i'm a stockholder as well, it seems the quarter will be profitable allowing for the stock to rise.

ship 5.5 million U's by march i believe

You bring forth a very good question. I don't know the answer unfortunately. On my end though, I bought shares when they were at 14.40$ so I am in the red as of late. I should of sold when they reached 17.50$ but said to myself no, they are going to go up more, I'm kicking myself lol. Could of locked some good profits. Nevertheless, the stock is getting hammered currently and I don't know why. The Wii U sales are favorable and what people do not seem to realize is that Nintendo makes the bulk of their money on their handhelds. For example, a 3DS game will cost between 500,000 to 1.4 million to make compared to the 20 million + for consoles; thus, a greater profit margin. Furthermore, Nintendo never brings down the retail price of their games and usually have strong legs.  Nintendo posted a loss last fiscal year because of the 3DS selling at a loss and the strong yen. Imagine producing over 13 million 3DS and losing 10-15$ per console and having exchange rates against you - it hurts.

Now, that equation is taking care of: Nintendo is selling the 3DS at a profit and even more so with exchange rates now in their favour. Though the Wii U may be selling at a loss, it only takes one game to make the Wii U equation profitable. Furthermore, Nintendo produces more 3DS than Wii U's; thus, profitabily overall is more insured.

Going forward into 2013, Nintendo is well positioned for the 3DS as it has an array of titles available to help it grow.

In Japan : Dragon Quest VII and Luigi's Mansion in Q4, Monster Hunter 4 in Q1, and most likely Pokemon in Q3.

North America: Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter 3G and Luigi's Mansion in Q4, Animal Crossing in Q1.

Wii U on the other hand I am more iffy. Consumers are more demanding these days and it is normal as they want to see what they get for their dollar. Nintendo is missing that 1st party software to justify the investment. Nonetheless, Nintendo does have Lego City Undercover and Wii Fit U as aces in their hands - if they do the marketing right! Do a marketing campaign with Lego aiming for kids and it will surely sell well. Furthermore, a marketing campaign that recaptures the magic of Wii Fit and the casuals will hop in. But like I said, the marketing has to be right. I believe that is why Nintendo didn't do that much marketing during the holiday season for the Wii U (they knew the Nintendo fans will buy the first batch), they are waiting for the above titles to market.

Hence, if Nintendo plays their cards right, we might see Nintendomination once more.

NTDOY: it represents 8 ordinary shares. I stopped wiring USD into my JPY account once the exchange rate got too high and simply bought NTDOY instead. Compared with 7974:JP, you can see NTDOY YOY decline of an extra 10%. Try charting both on Bloomberg. So had I bought $100k each via from JPY account and USD account, the currency adjusted performance would be very close. So currency is priced into the ADR shares.

Sony: I came across Sony's fx strategy before and thought it was kinda good for now, but might pay for it later strategy. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703300904576178001030496750.html
I could care less if they suffer if not for the fact they own Playstation brand. As a gamer, playstation success is good for everybody. So I hope that guy was just boasting.

High level the yen going down is good for NTDOY holders. As the yen weakens it helps Nintendo as an export company but it also causes the price of 7974 (in Yen) to go up to remain at a constant relative value. The second effect is the same principle behind QE raising stocks and gold based in USD. I hope we are all right about Nintendo in 2013 & 2014. If the U starts catching fire speculators will drive NTDOY up like they did 5 years ago ;)

Edit:  To be more succinct, the Japanese are diluting their currency value which causes assets like Japanese stock to inflate in price (although not appreciating in actual value).

3DS hardware and software may allow them to make some small profit, but Wii U being sold below cost, combined with weak Wii U software sales is going to bog them down until they manage to turn that around. Wii's precipitous drop is also not helping matters, as that system must surely cost next to nothing to manufacture by now. Had Wii sales not dropped so much, the margins on Wii hardware alone combined with robust 3DS business in Japan may have saved them this year.

Dude I would love to see that equation. Do you have it?