See 4 posts up :p

Nintendo was purposely vague with their statement about the Wii U selling at a loss.  It was a marketing ploy.  It may have only been a loss in NA.  One thing is for sure and that is the statement was assuming 80 Y/$ and 100 Y/Euro at best.  Expect to see these rates at 90 and 117 by Jan 25th respectively.  Maybe I am too optimistic but the hw maybe profitable at those rates with a $15 VC game purchase.

Another point would be most early adopters are enthusiasts and are most likely downloading a bunch of games.  I expect the high game revs to be closer than people think for the U.  The big N never predicted a tie ratio but revenue; only a moron like Patcher would only consider $60 games when evaluating that projection.  Expect some Mario U & Nintendoland DLC.  If they release a bunch of GC games they could even beat it!

Hey I got in at $14 and am kicking myself on not selling above $17 as well - like you I thought we'd see a rally off the bottom up above $18 & possibly above $20.

I too am confused as to why the shares continue to take a beating.

Your point about Nintendo profits being mostly from 3DS sales is interesting.  In investing circles you'll often hear arguments that iOS Smart-Phone & Tablet casual gaming spells doom for Nintendo - especially the handhelds.  

But for me, the good news for Nintendo, and the ultimate argument against the iOS group-think, is the 3DS is still outpacing the DS in sales after 96 weeks on the market.

The comparison is especially relevant now as both systems have each seen 2 Holiday Shopping seasons over their respective launches.  But the fact the DS was launched without any Smart-Phones or Tablets in existence and the 3DS is still outpacing it in sales - says they're having little to no negative effect at all!

I read an interview with Satoru Iwata where he noted that same stat as well.

With big 3DS hardware & software sales, the revamped e-shop, plus the weaker Yen, I cannot imagine any scenario where Nintendo isn't profitable in Q3.  If that happens I'll be totally dumbfounded, I just don't think its possible.

Yeah the Wii U is selling at a loss...but the attach rate is easily greater than 1!  And that's all the U needs to turn a profit!  

And we know the Wii is profitable.

So...logic seems to dictate that every single system Nintendo's selling is making money. Right?

Yes, it would seem that way, how much money is Nintendo making off the 3ds is the question. Like most if you, I think some investors have jumped the gun and sold off there shared cause they were expecting wii like results from the U, but if you look at each of their products, especially 3DS, they are in a very healthy position right now. I don't see any reason why Nintendo shares should be at 20$ right now. I look for them to be there by mid 2013

But the yen isn't weak. It's still very strong and far too strong for their overseas business. 87 yen to 1 dollar is better than the 75-80~ it's been floating around for a year or two, but it was 130 yen to 1 dollar at the start of the generation.

Edit: I own the 5 millionith post on VgChartz. Huzzah!

Based on the amount in foreign currency translation loss, Nintendo's looking at most 106 Yen to Dollar to have fully recovered.  Euro has been the more painful due to their PIGS crisis.  Nintendo definitely doesn't need Yen back at 130, at 90 or above, most exporters, especially Nintendo will be in good shape.  Also remember, due to the nature of those paper losses, every year Nintendo's been stashing dollars and euros even over the last few years.  Nintendo had accounting losses when stated in Yen terms, but Nintendo of America was collecting more dollars every year.

Haha, great to see some other Nintendo investors chatting it up here. I bought it up at 13.09 in the summer and have held it since. I've looked at it as a year long investment, I'm expecting big things next fall. But I too was kicking myself for not selling over 17 when it plummeted down below 13 these last number of weeks. I really didn't expect that temporary drop and we all could have bagged some serious cash and bought back at a lower price!

But long-term I think it's an awesome investment. The 3DS install base is at a point where software is going to start driving major revenue while the hardware is no longer a drain. WiiU should contribute modestly this financial year and then start to majorly contribute next year. The best thing of all, of course, is the falling yen. If it keeps going both 3DS and WiiU should be profit machines. Yes, NTDOY holders, we want the yen to be as weak as possible! If it keeps falling Nintendo will provide massive dividends as they did in the past, making their shares highly sought-after.

Great thread, vinnie. Thanks for putting all these numbers in perspective.

I think Nintendo must be reasonably happy, even if hardware sales for Wii U are a little low. The 3DS is flying off shelves, the DS -- now almost 8 years old -- is still selling well, and the Wii U launch compares favorably to the respective launches of Xbox 360 and PS3, two systems that went on to achieve great things last generation.

I think they will be profitable very soon.

I bought NTDOY at the launch of the 3DS. I don't want to talk about it.

Ouch! I hope you have patience, Megaman.