I think $499 would be a big mistake...
The PS3 was very expensive, but it was still a great deal for what you got back in '06 as blu-ray was new. Still, it didn't start doing really well until the price came down considerably. What saved Sony was the fact that the 360 didn't fly out of the gate right away either, and the Wii was offering a very different experience.
Today, in a worse economy no less, I don't see a $499 PS4 being able to ever catch up when the NeXtBox will definitely not be more than that (microsoft will see to that, no matter what) and would handily dominate Sony in NA and the UK, while Nintendo would completely obliterate Sony in Japan.
IMHO, Sony's best move is to release a console a bit stronger than WiiU at a price of $399 (or less), while remaining profitable.