I dont see why what you have said means they couldnt be working on ps4 games. Naughty Dog are likely working on UC4 and if this doesnt come out next year, it will very likely be out in 2014. GG are rumoured to be working on the 4th Killzone title. As you have mentioned Sucker Punch are working on something - it will almost certainly be something for the ps4 either Infamous 3 or some other title. The Last Guardian could be reasonably easily be shifted to the ps4 if delays continue and all of the titles you have mentioned above could probably be easily ported to the ps4. Some of the other developers  you havent mentioned could also be working on ps4 games. There is a lot we dont know so I think you are making large guesses without knowing. Sony made this mistake with the launch of the ps3 of not having enough titles. With the Vita, they clearly recognised this mistake and made sure there were a ton of titles at or near launch. I think it will be the same with the ps4 - they wont make a mistake of having too few IPs. 

I fully expect to see both PS4 and Nextbox next holiday season. I don't think Sony wants to do it, but they can't afford to let both Nintendo and MS get a head start. MS wants to own the living room and now even Nintendo is getting in on that action. MS needs to launch in 2013 even if they have shortages. The Xbox 360 had shortages and it worked out just fine. Nothing is going to stop MS from trying to control the living room and Sony knows they have to be there with them.

Q3 2013 does not even make sense.

Q4 2014. PD, GG, MM, ND another team, SP, Evolution etc ... have started preparing engine and started planning about PS4 games already. But it takes years to release. 2014 with decent if not good launch make more sense TBH

Guerilla games (KZ), media molecule and Naughty Dog are working on two games, ND was even split into 2 teams. Poluphony must be working on GT6 for PS4. Ready at Dawn are working on a PS4 game.

From the look of things, I expect both to launch in 2013. MS hired so much talent the last 2 years, working on next gen software. That was openly mentioned in the job ads.

Rare working on next gen
Lionhead working on next gen
343i working on next gen

and there are studios most people here don't even know that are working on next gen games. http://www.mgsvancouver.com/ for example.

Sony on the other hand can't afford to be late again.

I agree, they can maximize their profits this way much better than trying to control the dead...

(sorry, I just had to).  

OT:  I don't know.  It's possible but I still have my doubts that it's coming in 2013.  And frankly, Pachter saying this certainly doesn't add much weight to the idea.

What's the release date on the last of us and 2 souls? I know GOWA is coming in march. Maybe both those games we have seen have been running on a PS3 but are actually bein made for Ps4 and just downgraded?

He has more contacts within the industry than any of us will ever dream of having.

Dont forget suckerpunch and InFamous 3. Projekt CD said they are making the Witcher 2 to be a 720, PS4 game as well rather than PC.

The majority of the top games in 2013 are launching in the first quarter of the year. This leaves plenty of room for the PS4 and 720 to launch 4th quarter without any last gen games getting in their way.