I predict that by the end of this console generation(meaning by the time all console makers launch new consoles) the playstation 3 will have amassed an install base larger than the nintendo wii.
Now what will allow this to happen?
Blu ray is becoming a huge force in the disc market, and this disk format will continue to push ps3 sales as it has already, once the ps3 is down to $199, it would be un wise for people not to get an all around entertainment centre with one of the best blu ray players within the ps3 that is also capable of running blu ray 3D movies... and games... so sales will continue to be strong with the growth of the HD TV market, and blu ray market
Price point, the XBOX 360 has a $199 entry price model, and CHEAPER IN OTHER MAJOR REGIONS, so it already has an advantage over the playstation 3 price wise, but once the ps3 does drop to 199, it's probable that the 360 won't even touch ps3 sales in any other market but the U.S, in fact microsoft will probably drop the 360 to $149 or even $129/$179, but it won't really matter, as the playstation 3 will have the advantage of a blu ray player, and will begin to be introduced at a mass market price point.... something hthe 360 has already been at for 2-3 years.
Word of mouth/PSN/Software line up, PSN has grown way beyond what it was when the ps3 first launched, and it is now a factor in this console generation, XBOX LIVE has very little more to offer than PSN, in fact PSN may be offering more than what XBOX LIVE is currently offering, and this is simply due to the fact aht sony has pushed and increased what PSN has to offer on a consistent basis, and this won't be changing, as long as sony continue to market PSN as a FREE WAY TO PLAY ONLINEAGAINST OTHER PLAYERS, with a quality experience, they will always have an advantage in the near future, and most likely are developing that advantage right now.... Sony's software line up hasn't let up at all for the past 3 years.....sony is about to announce a huge ip for playstation, whehter it be GOD OF WAR IV, or somethign else, announcing an ip like god of war IV would mean announcing an ip that has the potential to sell over 5 million copies, and psuh people how are at the brink of buying a ps3 to do so.....
a 199 ps3 in japan would cause ps3 sales to upoar... that and FF V XIII, and who knows sqaure might port DRAGON QUEST X to ps3 as an HD remastered edition..
either way, by the end of this year, and early next year, it's probable that the ps3 would be 2nd place, and by the time it is 199 it will likely be a guarantee, sony is catching up to nintendo at a RAPID pace, outselling their #1 console by nearly 100,000 units a week.... as wii continues to fall apart, once Wii U releases, it may go down to DS figures, while ps3 may outsell it for more than just 100,000 units a week.....