Using only rounded numbers as all tracking firms are estimations anyways.

Wii currently stands at 84m.

Wii sold:

16m - 2007
24m - 2008
22m - 2009
19m - 2010

There will be a Zelda game this year and most likely some kind of Zelda inspired 25th anniversary edition like Mario. There will be 1-3 other Nintendo IPs launched throughout the year as typical Nintendo fashion and probably a couple quality 3rd party titles along with the typical annual releases of other multiplats.

2010 had no price reductions for any system. To me this means there will definitely be price cuts on all three sometime in the summer or just before summer.

With all this in mind I think its really not an argument but a fact that Wii will sell at least the 16m units required to reach the 100m mark. In fact I think it may hit closer to 18m over the year due to a price break and only be slightly down YOY.

What are your thoughts?

Let's wait for the final adjustments, I think the Wii may be cut another 4-500k in the 2010 numbers.

Anyway; no I don't think it will reach 100 million but it will be damn close. Will bookmark thread to come back and eat crow if I'm wrong though, I do love food.

well its definatly going to sell over 16 million. I think 18 millions the best bet, but it might actually manage to get slightly higher YOY if zeldas a success, the wii gets a pricecut and nintendo has one of its big IPs for christmas

I think it'll just squeeze by with around 16m sold.  Lifetime I think it's probably going to crawl just north of 125m, depending on how Nintendo handles it's wind down.

Depends on how bad the decline is in Japan or if DQX can stave that off if it does indeed release this year. And also obviously how good the holidays are. A price cut wouldn't necessarily guarantee it will match last year. DS got a price cut last year and it was still down over 6 million YOY.

People are far too optimistic for it at the moment -- VGChartzers only seem to look at stuff in the short term.

I'd expect ~16m to push it near 101m though my official prediction is 18777227, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone, :P.

Without a price cut and negligible software performances, I see the Wii selling 13.85m. That is pretty much worst case scenario.

2010 looked like this:

TOTAL = 19.135m

A 25% drop is 14.351m.

Year-Over-Year, the Wii's biggest drop has been by 14% (2009-2010). If the drop is past 16%, it won't make 100m.

i'd wager the wii to be around 101 to 102M at the end of 2011.

Wii has 12.53 left to ship this Q just gone and Q we're in now to hit their recently revised 17.5 mill fiscal year target. Whilst I don't think that'll be revised again either way, it's not out of the realm of possibilites.

We have for Q4 sales - 10.2 million.

Say for arguments sakes Wii comes out of the holiday with same amount of consoles as Just before (last week of August)

means they have shipped roughly 10 million in Q4. Leaving 2.5 mill for shipping in Q1. That's down significantly on the 4.3 million they sold Q1 2010. By about 2 mill.

I don't expect too harsh drops in Q2 and Q3, perhaps 500k to 1 million combined.

With all that in mind, I think it'll be tight. Even if the holiday is flat, it's in the year when Wii sales are low that it's going to lose YoY, and it seems as every new year rolls in, it gets weaker, faster.

It won't make it. I have no reason to believe the support for 2011 won't be lackluster and excitement will drop off even faster than in 2010.