Wii has 12.53 left to ship this Q just gone and Q we're in now to hit their recently revised 17.5 mill fiscal year target. Whilst I don't think that'll be revised again either way, it's not out of the realm of possibilites.
We have for Q4 sales - 10.2 million.
Say for arguments sakes Wii comes out of the holiday with same amount of consoles as Just before (last week of August)
means they have shipped roughly 10 million in Q4. Leaving 2.5 mill for shipping in Q1. That's down significantly on the 4.3 million they sold Q1 2010. By about 2 mill.
I don't expect too harsh drops in Q2 and Q3, perhaps 500k to 1 million combined.
With all that in mind, I think it'll be tight. Even if the holiday is flat, it's in the year when Wii sales are low that it's going to lose YoY, and it seems as every new year rolls in, it gets weaker, faster.
