I'm not talking about the actual hardware or games but the success of the product

Everyone including analysts like Michael Pachter seem to think it will be a huge success in the casual market that the Wii created

Don't you think the PS2 already done that? It obvious the PS2 had a HUGE library of hardcore games.. infact, it had the best games library ever but it was also was a huge success in the casual market, it was the consoles that everyone owned and knew

If the EyeToy only managed to sell 10.5 million units worldwide according to Wikipedia, why would Natal will be more successful?

Yay another April Fool's thread! He's pretending to downplay Natal! Woohoo!

mister mark-e-ting says hello

I did not know everyone thought this.....

Because Microsoft's done an amazing job of selling the industry media and press on it already, with almost nothing substantial outside a concept, a name and some messy tech demos. The press keeps parroting it's inevitable success, and other sectors of the industry start to believe it...

Xbox 360 will probably be around 40 million consoles sold by the time Natal has been released. I highly doubt they will be able to even sell 10 million lifetime units of Natal, which represents 1/4 of their total userbase. The only way 360 will be able to push more than 10 million units of Natal is if they drastically reduce the price of the 360 and bundle it with Natal. This could be possible in the next 1-2 years with the 360 Slim that will be released.

To put things in perspective, does anyone really expect Natal to sell better than Halo 3?

I am not sure why game developers are lining up to create games for Natal. The game developers will be inheriting a limited 360 userbase. New peripherals, mid-console, are a very tough sell. M$ is doing everything they can to market Natal, but they may have a difficult time.

The Wii has suceeded because of Nintendo's amazing software. I don't think M$ has the developers to be able to create like Nintendo did with the Wii. I would expect Sony to have much better 1st party software for Move than M$ for Natal.

More than anything else, I think Natal may slow down the number of people who buy a Wii or who think about upgrading to the Wii's successor in the next couple years. M$ wants to do anything they can to steal Nintendo's casual audience. Despite what they say, M$ will probably release a new console in the next 2 years, especially since 360 will be 7 years old by then. However, if Natal technology doesn't catch on, M$ may have a difficult time to ever get in the casual market.

Bigger marketing and better software. Also the Natal is superior technology with far more potential.

cuz MS has the money to spend and they will market the crap out of any product they want, even if they might turn out meh...just like Apple with Ipad

The main issue is the possibilities that Natal creates. The success of Just Dance / Wii Fit / EA Active shows that there is a market for a more active style of games. I am interested in seeing how well the possibilities line up with success. Developers need to remember that games need to be fun to sell.

On the cost side Natal will be inexpensive and easily bundled with a slim (cost cut) xbox 360. The cost will drive adoption rates quite heavily. For myself, I am mostly interested in the voice recognition and face recognition technology that is included in Natal.

Because it's made by Microsoft and it's an American company.