Why does everyone think Natal will be huge?

[Gojimaster]

Xbox 360 will probably be around 40 million consoles sold by the time Natal has been released. I highly doubt they will be able to even sell 10 million lifetime units of Natal, which represents 1/4 of their total userbase. The only way 360 will be able to push more than 10 million units of Natal is if they drastically reduce the price of the 360 and bundle it with Natal. This could be possible in the next 1-2 years with the 360 Slim that will be released.

To put things in perspective, does anyone really expect Natal to sell better than Halo 3?

I am not sure why game developers are lining up to create games for Natal. The game developers will be inheriting a limited 360 userbase. New peripherals, mid-console, are a very tough sell. M$ is doing everything they can to market Natal, but they may have a difficult time.

The Wii has suceeded because of Nintendo's amazing software. I don't think M$ has the developers to be able to create like Nintendo did with the Wii. I would expect Sony to have much better 1st party software for Move than M$ for Natal.

More than anything else, I think Natal may slow down the number of people who buy a Wii or who think about upgrading to the Wii's successor in the next couple years. M$ wants to do anything they can to steal Nintendo's casual audience. Despite what they say, M$ will probably release a new console in the next 2 years, especially since 360 will be 7 years old by then. However, if Natal technology doesn't catch on, M$ may have a difficult time to ever get in the casual market.