ok I may have forgot the wii :p I meant 4rth

Well probably it should reach thete and go on selling more till somewhere close to 80mn by 2013.

The original support (aka producing games and making hardware) was because the hardware on an piece by piece basis was never going to sell at a profit.  That is not the case for the 360 so even after Xbox Next comes out (im guessing 2012) the 360 will continue to be sold.

The following are realistic projections.

Current 38 million

2010 - 10 million
2011 - 10 million
2012 - 8 million (Xbox next releases in November)
2013 - 5 million
2014 - 4 million
2015 - 2 million

The PS3 could also get there (it is, in fairness, likely to sell for longer than the 360).

On topic (for the first time in this topic for me :P): Personally, I don't see it happening, unless Natal is a really big success. MS are still building the Xbox brandname in a lot of places (outside of the US/UK, where it is pretty set up now). That's not to say the 360 hasn't been (or isn't going to be) successful. To go from an install base of 24 million (that is what the original Xbox finished on, right?) to what it is now is good progress, and it isn't done selling yet. 50 million would be a massive success by most people's standards. I can see it ending up in the 55-65 million region, unless Natal is very successful. Then again, I can see Xbox 3 coming out even if Natal is successful, with Natal 2.0 out of the box with Xbox 3. Still, it has already been very successful by most measurements (unless we want to start saying it has to sell 100 million, or has to place 1st, in which case Nintendo has never been successful and Sony was only "just" successful with PS1).

I think it will sell a little less depending on how long CONSUMER's decide they still want the product; depending on when the consumers force MS to come out with a new box. Natal probably won't prolong the life but it might boost the initial sales a bit.

Natal Soars

2010 - 12 million
2011 - 12 million
2012 - 8 million
2013 - 5 million
2014 - 2 million / discontinued

= 78 million

Natal Fails

2010 - 9.5 million
2011 - 8 million
2012 - 5 million
2013 - 2 million/ discontinued

= 65 million

@ GreyianStorm

I think Natal is already successful. Nomatter how useless it turns out to be in reality. So much hype based on baseless Milo footage...

I know right? Every pedophile in the world is going to get a 360 for this

10 million for 2010 is feasible if Natal comes out in time for Christmas.

10 million for 2011 is high. All three consoles (with the possible exception of the PS3 back in its worst days, I don't know the exact numbers) have pulled in sales of at least 10 million for the past three years. That alone is impressive, but I don't see the 360 selling 10 million in its seventh year of existence. Only a dominant console with an unstoppable library can pull something like that off -- the earlier PlayStations only sold for so long because developers didn't give up making games for the PS2 until the middle of last year. We're in a new era now, where developing games takes a lot more time and a lot more money -- the core developers that are pushing the 360's sales right now are probably already working on games for Microsoft's next console, or allocating most of their resources to enable themselves to do that as quickly as possible. I would see all consoles of this generation tapering off their sales in 2011 in anticipation of the next generation -- 7 million sounds a lot more likely to me, with or without Natal.

I don't see 8 million in 2012 as possible unless some really industry-shaking games come out on the Natal platform. I see it more like this:

2010 - 10 million

2011 - 7 million

2012 - 7 million (that's if Natal really takes hold)

2013 - 3 million

2014 - 2 million

2015 - 1 million

For a lifetime total of about 68 million.

you could have just say yes and bump it up to 70 but you did not... You failed.