Polarimetric said:
10 million for 2010 is feasible if Natal comes out in time for Christmas. 10 million for 2011 is high. All three consoles (with the possible exception of the PS3 back in its worst days, I don't know the exact numbers) have pulled in sales of at least 10 million for the past three years. That alone is impressive, but I don't see the 360 selling 10 million in its seventh year of existence. Only a dominant console with an unstoppable library can pull something like that off -- the earlier PlayStations only sold for so long because developers didn't give up making games for the PS2 until the middle of last year. We're in a new era now, where developing games takes a lot more time and a lot more money -- the core developers that are pushing the 360's sales right now are probably already working on games for Microsoft's next console, or allocating most of their resources to enable themselves to do that as quickly as possible. I would see all consoles of this generation tapering off their sales in 2011 in anticipation of the next generation -- 7 million sounds a lot more likely to me, with or without Natal.
I don't see 8 million in 2012 as possible unless some really industry-shaking games come out on the Natal platform. I see it more like this:
2010 - 10 million 2011 - 7 million 2012 - 7 million (that's if Natal really takes hold) 2013 - 3 million 2014 - 2 million 2015 - 1 million For a lifetime total of about 68 million. |
you could have just say yes and bump it up to 70 but you did not... You failed.
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