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Locked: The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

of course iam a bit confused that ioi don't want to correct his numbers, because he did in past.
on the other side i think that ioi is doing a great job and iam trusting him.

ioi - you have my vote !



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When I think about it, I thought this site was just a fun casual site for gamers to see how consoles are going etc etc, nothing serious.

So I can't really see how adjusting the numbers would hurt seeing as the aim of this site wasn't to be fully credible (see 3 lines above).

I think this is a personal thing between VGC & NPD and is not in the best interest in the users.

Not to say this site is not accurate, I think you nailed Nintendo excellently, obviously there has been a slip with 360 and there is no harm in editing, this is not a fix it to what NPD say, this is a fix it to what was actually sold, seeing as obviously, NPD are more accurate, no matter what way you swing it.

I find it extremely funny with what some of you are saying;

“NPD might not even be accurate, look VGC got all the other stuff right”

Got it right? Got the other hardware right? How do you know? Are you comparing it to air to know VGC’s was right? Perhaps you’re comparing it to NPD’s numbers?
Are you saying VGC got it right because their other hardware matched NPD’s hardware, but because the 360 is hideously off NPD's, NPD must be wrong, because it doesn’t match VGC’s... do you see a loop?

Talk about tying yourself into a knot of self contradictory.

Don't get me wrong but I love this site, but half of you have got to cut the crap and stop sucking up with the whole "Look at me I'll take a bullet for you because I want to be noticed" attitude.



Join the new subreddit:  www.reddit.com/r/VGChartz

ioi said:
We are not adjusting any numbers. We feel our numbers are good, based on sound methods and from a large and varied enough data source to be statistically sound.

Let me make a simple point.

Say there are two retailers - retailer A and B.

One tracking service gets data for 5% of each. Retailer A says the hardware sold 5,000 units, retailer B 2,500 units (from this 5% of total stores). This tracking service estimates that a total of 100,000 units were sold at retailer A as a whole and 50,000 at retailer B by simply scaling up. So they say 150,000.

The second tracking service gets all data from retailer A and none from retailer B. Retailer A actually sold 105,000 units in total (not the 100,000 estimated by the first tracking source). Past data shows that retailer B as a whole is 75% the size of retailer A, so they estimate 78,750 units for retailer B. Giving a total of 183,750.

In reality the number is 105,000 for retailer A and 55,000 for retailer B - 160,000.

Which method of tracking gave the best results?

Of course I have purposely skewed the data to support my point, but it is not inconceivable that using many small sources of data could be better than fewer sources of complete data.

Ah! excellent, so i got it right. (see comment about pies near the top of the page)

 

@origin, ioi isn't saying he is keeping VGC numbers because of a principal or because he wants to be seperate from NPD, he is doing it because for the past few months his data has shown to be better for the 360 and DS than when we adjusted to be like NPD.... the fiscal quartely statements (Nintendos was combined to a half year statement) showed that there was a stupidly massive discrepancy between the number of DS shipped and what NPD had for sales, there would have to be dozens of DS sitting on every store shelf to acount for it, the 360 discrepancy was even bigger, though 360s have a much better retail supply than DS it was clearly not as much as the difference between shipments and NPD sales.

Maybe that is why NPD were stopping releasing public data this month, because MS and Nintendos own sales numbers (which they seemingly don't release) showed NPD to be off.



Also X360 VGchartz figures for the first and the second week of November seem very high too. Already 300k. Halo 3 boom slowed down and holidays are still pretty distant. Strong Sony ad campaing doesn't halp too. I dunno. What if numbers will be off once again? It will generate massive disparity. It's better to adjust now than remove half a million later.


*takes the popcorn*
*looks arround*

Na, i say something:

What the hell are you complaining about? I also think ioi overtracks the 360, but WTF? Those aren't "your" numbers. This isn't "your" site. Thats all ioi. You think you could do better? Make a own site. Common, if ioi doesn't want to, he doesn't want to. He even explained it with reasonable reasons (doesn't mean you have to agree, but you can see he made the decision based on thoughts rather then randomnes). If he is far off he will change the database, if he sees number he trusts (e.g. copies shipped). It is that simple.



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Got it right? Got the other hardware right? How do you know? Are you comparing it to air to know VGC’s was right? Perhaps you’re comparing it to NPD’s numbers?
Are you saying VGC got it right because their other hardware matched NPD’s hardware, but because the 360 is hideously off NPD's, NPD must be wrong, because it doesn’t match VGC’s... do you see a loop?


The manufactureres numbers that came out last qaurter showed VGC was closer before it adjusted to match NPD



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

FishyJoe said:

Here's a little clarification on that Sony 100k number.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=amjWQwK2k3Bs

The price cut and new model helped Sony increase sales of all consoles including the older PlayStation 2 to 100,000 units in the week ended Nov. 11, spokeswoman Kimberly Otzman said in an e-mail.

 

So that is settled, finally.

 



We don't provide the 'easy to program for' console that they [developers] want, because 'easy to program for' means that anybody will be able to take advantage of pretty much what the hardware can do, so the question is what do you do for the rest of the nine and half years? It's a learning process. - SCEI president Kaz Hirai

It's a virus where you buy it and you play it with your friends and they're like, "Oh my God that's so cool, I'm gonna go buy it." So you stop playing it after two months, but they buy it and they stop playing it after two months but they've showed it to someone else who then go out and buy it and so on. Everyone I know bought one and nobody turns it on. - Epic Games president Mike Capps

We have a real culture of thrift. The goal that I had in bringing a lot of the packaged goods folks into Activision about 10 years ago was to take all the fun out of making video games. - Activision CEO Bobby Kotick

 

LOL This is exactly what NPD wanted. Why do people think they all of a sudden decided to change their mind and continue to report their estimates. Vgchartz has their numbers way ahead of the npd so they noticed it would be off by 100k+ etc including canada and they went ahead provided it to everyone so they can make this site look bad. They have no competition so their numbers or whatever they say is taken as gospel. Only reason the industry has to use those numbers is because they are the only numbers available on a monthly basis until they can release their personal sales data which have match up with ioi's on a number of occassions.

I am baised because I just hate monopolys. Fuking comcast can screw me over and over again because they are the only internet service provider I can get near my house and they know it so they do whatever they want. Is the exact samething as NPD as they love to take jabs at the competition whenever possible and with this case I believe skewing the numbers to purposely make vgchartz look bad. That is just my opinion.

IoI should stick to his data and compared it to figures from MS,SONY and Nintendo and not the NPD. Maybe someday even those 3 will start to take vgchartz as an alternative to the NPD if anything else as comparison.