Who Should Run For President on the Democratic Side?

[Mnementh]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Mnementh said:

Yeah, this is one good source. There are more.

RealClearPolitics only checks four major polls, but they conveniently have a running average of these four (I wish they also had a graph over time, so you could see how the race changes):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Fivethirtyeight also tracks the primary polls, they have ratings for the different pollsters (something they do to make their models more accurate) and also show sample size and if the people asked are likely voters, registered voters, adults and so on. I wish they would build these polls into a model, maybe they'll do it later:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

Fivethirtyeight also tracks endorsements, which looks quite different (I mean Booker?). They rate the 'value' of the endorsement based on office the person holds:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/

Thanks for the links.

Don't know how that endorsement ranking is supposed to work out, though. Plus, the list seems pretty outdated compared to the ones on Wikipedia, especially Bernie's endorsements are very trunkated while there are enough to warrant a separate page on Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Endorsements_2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bernie_Sanders_2020_presidential_campaign_endorsements

Endorsements in the past were a valid indicator, but not the last word. Taking endorsements as indicator works well, if the endorsements are pretty strong for one candidate without other candidates getting also a lot. 538 explains it: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/were-tracking-2020-presidential-endorsements-heres-why-they-probably-still-matter/

The differences to the endorsement-tracker on Wikipedia is, that 538 only counts current office holders (with few exceptions like past presidents) and also only few office holders in regional offices (like state congress). Wikipedia lists them all, even if they never held political office, like songwriters or actors. This is in part, because 538 puts a 'value' on the endorsement, the ones not counted would be assigned 0 points. This system allows it to beforehand know the pool of possible endorsements and calculate a percentage, as they already do for calculating the persentage of endorsements from different states the candidate gets in the shown map. So 538 seems to have listed all endorsements from US-congressmen to Bernie Sanders and other office-holders they appoint points to, like representatice Rho Kanna or senator Patrick Leahy, but not from state legislature like Rhode Island State senator Sam Bell.