Quantcast
February 2014 NPD Thread! PS4: 285k, XBO: 258k, Wii U: 82k

Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2014 NPD Thread! PS4: 285k, XBO: 258k, Wii U: 82k

bananaking21 said:
pezus said:

Considering it's looking way down in Japan, I'd say 8m or so sounds about right tbh.

that would be aweful honestly. and if that really happens 3DS would end at around 60 million, probably 70 tops. 

Down nearly 50% in Japan. If Nintendo don't do something they'll see it drop from 5m in 2013, to 2.5m in 2014. US like I said is trending for 3m, and Europe probably on par with that as they're very similar. It's certainly doing under 10k and isn't likely to sustain that.

It's crazy but the 3DS is already winding down.

When you consider that PS3, 360, Wii, DS and PSP in the same year of their lifespan all did more than 10m, it really shows you that 3DS isn't doing that well.



 

Soundwave said:

This is the 3DS comparision

Feb 2010 (DS): 613k
Feb 2011 (DS): 456k

Feb 2012 (3DS): 262k
Feb 2013 (3DS): 183k
Feb 2014 (3DS): 151k

This is honestly bordering on a disaster, the way this market has shrunk since the introduction of the iPad in 2010 and the boom of gaming apps (Angry Birds being released in Dec. 2009). 


Not selling as well as the best-selling handheld system ever = disaster. Soundwave, the Constructicons would like to have a word with you.

In all seriousness, though. You don't think it has anything to do with Nintendo's own actions, like, say giving it by far the highest launch price of any Nintendo handheld ever, followed by a price cut that still didn't get it down to parity with where the DS was, followed by an ill-conceived 2DS (dat form factor *shudder*), all combined with some tepid marketing (NoA's marketing department must have left on permanent vacation about 4 years ago)?

Also, the DS was trailing far behind the GBA for a good while. The GBA sold something like 4.7 million in 2001 (it debuted in June), almost 7 million units in 2002, around 8 million in 2003. Meanwhile, the DS sold something like 1.2 million in Q4 2004, about 2.6M in 2005, and over 5 million in 2006. It didn't really start to take off until the DS Lite was released.

Finally, as I've gone out of my way to explain over and over and over and over again on these forums, actually making serious comparisons between the sales curves of any two systems and using that comparison to seriously draw conclusions about future sales is, well, just wrong. The DS trailed behind the GBA initially. The PS3 was selling at barely above GameCube levels during 2007 and 2008 in the U.S. The Wii was selling faster than the PS2 in the U.S. initially. The 360 was flat for two years in Europe and three years in the U.S. Many people, including professional analysts, tried to make projections of future sales based on such comparisons, and in every case they were way off the mark. Right now people are talking about the PS4's first three weeks of sales in Japan being lower than the Wii U's first three sales as if it actually means something. This graph shows quite clearly that the "System A is selling at x% of what System B was at the same point in its life" kind of reasoning is always invalid:

I'm not saying that there's anything wrong about making predictions. There is something wrong about stating them as matters of fact, though. I don't take any of my own predictions seriously, and I'll be the first to admit that I'm likely to be wrong. We're all likely to be wrong. It's all just pure guesswork. Sure, the PS4 is selling at around PS2 levels in NA and Europe right now, but there's no reason to think that'll always be the case. It could end up trending way behind the PS2, or it could exceed all expectations. The 3DS may have peaked in America, or it might just be in a brief lull and 2014 could do as well as 2013; it could behave like the PSP (but with better holiday performances) for all we know. The XBO could keep doing terribly in Europe, or it could rebound like the 360 did and narrow (but not close) the gap between itself and the PS4. The Vita, after performing terribly everywhere, is actually starting to do decently in Japan relatively speaking and could be up YoY for the second year in a row; it's still not doing great, but it's doing considerably less bad than most would have though a year ago. All the "Doom" and "Disaster" stuff is getting old fast. Same for any premature "Domination" rhetoric. Even as far as two or three years into a generation it can be too early to call.



Handheld market is falling apart, if you guys want to sit there and call this a "lull" (lol) go ahead, but for what reason would it be lulling? The software releases have been fantastic. The price was only $250 for the first 4 months, lets stop dolling out this excuse, it's just sad at this point. With the 2DS, the system has never been more affordable. It's not just down from the DS era, it's way down from the GBA also. 

Something is very, very wrong here and it's fairly obvious what the issue is, some people just don't want to admit it to themselves but they will have to eventually.

Honestly if I'm a parent and I don't have any real brand allegiance, screw the 3DS and Vita, lol. $40 games? And you want me to buy my kids a console so I can buy them $50-$60 games too? Is it really a shocker a lot of parents are just opting to download a few 99 cent games instead? Most households now have a tablet. 

Nintendo is losing their market strongholds left, right, and center, their portable dominance has never been shattered like this.



Well the XB1 certainly did better than I thought it would. Why did it increase so much and sell about the same as the PS4?



yo_john117 said:
Well the XB1 certainly did better than I thought it would. Why did it increase so much and sell about the same as the PS4?


A combo of taxes coming back, allowing for larger purchases like Xbox One. And imo NPD adjustments, XB1 seemed too small for January.



Shadow1980 said:
Soundwave said:

This is the 3DS comparision

Feb 2010 (DS): 613k
Feb 2011 (DS): 456k

Feb 2012 (3DS): 262k
Feb 2013 (3DS): 183k
Feb 2014 (3DS): 151k

This is honestly bordering on a disaster, the way this market has shrunk since the introduction of the iPad in 2010 and the boom of gaming apps (Angry Birds being released in Dec. 2009). 

I'm not saying that there's anything wrong about making predictions. There is something wrong about stating them as matters of fact, though. I don't take any of my own predictions seriously, and I'll be the first to admit that I'm likely to be wrong. We're all likely to be wrong. It's all just pure guesswork. Sure, the PS4 is selling at around PS2 levels in NA and Europe right now, but there's no reason to think that'll always be the case. It could end up trending way behind the PS2, or it could exceed all expectations. The 3DS may have peaked in America, or it might just be in a brief lull and 2014 could do as well as 2013; it could behave like the PSP (but with better holiday performances) for all we know. The XBO could keep doing terribly in Europe, or it could rebound like the 360 did and narrow (but not close) the gap between itself and the PS4. The Vita, after performing terribly everywhere, is actually starting to do decently in Japan relatively speaking and could be up YoY for the second year in a row; it's still not doing great, but it's doing considerably less bad than most would have though a year ago. All the "Doom" and "Disaster" stuff is getting old fast. Same for any premature "Domination" rhetoric. Even as far as two or three years into a generation it can be too early to call.

Shouldn't it be the other way around? If all trends point to one direction, it is more likely to continue heading into that direction.



Farsala said:
yo_john117 said:
Well the XB1 certainly did better than I thought it would. Why did it increase so much and sell about the same as the PS4?


A combo of taxes coming back, allowing for larger purchases like Xbox One. And imo NPD adjustments, XB1 seemed too small for January.


Get over the adjustment thing. I made a thread in the third week of Jan talking about target sending XB1s back. We eventually got those vack.... as the TF bundles. XB1 had an abysmal Jan



Figgycal said:

Shouldn't it be the other way around? If all trends point to one direction, it is more likely to continue heading into that direction.


Not necessarily. Look at the graph I posted. Two systems may start similarly, but later grow at different rates. The PS4 may start to slow down a bit, or it might speed up. That graph showed cumulative sales over, so let's look at that by annual sales:

You can see how their sales curves differ. The Wii began to outpace the PS2 considerably beginning in 2008 but beginning in 2011 it started dropping at a faster rate. Hence why you see in the cumulative chart the Wii's curve shoots up faster than the PS2's but flattens more quickly and the gap quickly closes. The PS3 was selling only marginally better in 2007 and 2008 than the GameCube did in 2002 and 2003, the GC peaked in 2003 while the PS3 kept growing, not peaking until 2011. Finally, the 360 remained relatively flat from 2006 through 2009, the PS3 kept growing rapidly from 2007 through 2009. Then in 2010 the 360 started growing and the PS3's growth slowed to a crawl, staying nearly flat itself from then on through 2011.

So no, there's no reason to suspect the PS4 will necessarily keep tracking at around PS2 levels its whole life. It might do better, or it might do worse. It might do the same but get there via a completely different curve, perhaps peaking higher and declining faster or alternately peaking lower and declining slower. We just won't know until it happens.

And with that, time to go to bed. Gotta get up early.



Seece said:
bananaking21 said:
pezus said:

Considering it's looking way down in Japan, I'd say 8m or so sounds about right tbh.

that would be aweful honestly. and if that really happens 3DS would end at around 60 million, probably 70 tops. 

Down nearly 50% in Japan. If Nintendo don't do something they'll see it drop from 5m in 2013, to 2.5m in 2014. US like I said is trending for 3m, and Europe probably on par with that as they're very similar. It's certainly doing under 10k and isn't likely to sustain that.

It's crazy but the 3DS is already winding down.

When you consider that PS3, 360, Wii, DS and PSP in the same year of their lifespan all did more than 10m, it really shows you that 3DS isn't doing that well.

effect of the very early price cut.  they slashed one third of its price just after six months, sales became front loaded and it killed off the possibility of any meaningful price cute down the line. once you hit a sub 200$ price range, any price cut probably wont have the same effect. at least, just one of my theories. add to that the explosing of smartphones, and no new IPs that really did huge numbers in sales. 



I've been saying handhelds would become a small niches for the last 3 years (to great abuse) due to mobile and tablets.....

I think most people (even Chapset) will agree with me now.



I'm not really here!

Link: Shipment History Since 1995