@rukusa: I guess so but probably new numbers will be somewhere between what vgchartz and NPD estimates.
It also looks like GH3 may be pretty close to 1 million mark and CoD4 shold break 2 millions soon.

@Kamil

Haha I should've known you were polish just by the username.

Execellent news about COD4 and GH3 aswell.

I don't know, I geuss Uncharted means much more to me so I paid more attention to it.

TheSource, you are an excellent writer, but why on earth are you so conservative with your numbers? It's not fun to read an expert who is so cautious with his speculations of the future. In my opinion you have the skills to be far more bold with your predictions.

About the X360. At this point even a moron can predict that the X360 will sell a bit more than 30 mill in it's lifetime. It's 30% faster than Xbox, so 1.3 x 24 mill = 31.2 mill.

And you can't just restate a common known fact, that the Xbox's lifetime was truncated, and then not draw conclusions from it that you can apply on the X360 sales this time around. Btw, it was 4 years between the Xbox and X360 launch in NA, and for the record, the Xbox sales were very low already at 3.5 years since launch, so the effective sales in that regard can also be seen as 4 years (not 4.5). Yes, normal time for a generation is seen as 6 years. Practically everyone assume that MS won't let the X360 die like last time, even if they launch a new console in Nov 2010.

So, what about lifetime sales of X360? Well, we know that Xbox sold ~6 mill units per year ww, and if the X360 follows the 30% up pattern, we'll get 1.3 x 6=7.8 mill per year, and this gen will be minimum 5 years --->39 mill. But likely it will continue to sell a little even after an early Xbox 3 launch, so add another 2-3 mill ----> 41 mill minimum.

That was the conservative prediction IMO!

A real prediction goes something like this:

The X360 is selling 30% faster than Xbox even with a much higher price. Conclusion: it has potential to sell a lot more after price drops. You see, at this point in time, 26 months after launch, the Xbox cost only $179! The X360 costs $350! We will see price drops on the X360, and one is coming real soon. And traditionally it comes in march, and I believe with the pressure now from increased PS3 sales we'll see a $100 drop within a short time frame (maybe strategically split in two drops at $50).

I'm not gonna go any further here than to say that these kind of facts gives another 7-10 million extra lifetime sales compared to Xbox 1. So, in my opinion I'm not even bold when I say ~50 mill X360 sales end of gen.

Last, a question. Why so low january figures (btw, is it a 4 or 5 week month?)? I don't buy your arguments. I'll say X360 sells 300K and the PS3 190K.

Other figures from the US:

Bioshock 123k (PC/360 combined)
MySims 404k (Wii/DS combined)
Carnival Games 272k

Last year NPD had an odd five week January, this year should be 4 weeks again. 360 averaged around 200k for most of the months last year before Halo 3 was released. Taking this into account his estimation seems realistic to me. PS3 struggled to stay above 100k for many months last year. Returning to normal sales after the holiday season is gone I think his estimations are in line with sales last year. 

wow carnival games really sold that much just in december

So many 360 and PS3 games are going to need *ahem* adjustments.....

Are we waiting til Canada.

P.S. Im happy that AC, Rock Band, COD4, and Uncharted were all undertracked..... It makes the PS3 situation in America not as dire.

And Wii games. Mario Galaxy sold more, Carnival Games sold more, My Sims sold more. Wii Play sold 500k more. I'm assuming you just didn't look at the Wii games, because the numbers are also undervalued :p

No one cares about the Wii or DS, bod. Those two system are in great shape. The PS3 and 360 are much more important when it comes to software. That's why he didn't look at the Wii games, I assume.