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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official NPD Dec 2010 Thread (Nov 28-Jan 1, data at 6:30 PM ET)

Killiana1a said:
CGI-Quality said:

[...]

In November, Killiana1a said:

I am fully aware of Gran Turismo 5 Prologue and it's 3.99 (http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Gran Turismo Prologue) sales since it was released in 2007.

Prologue's lifetime numbers are in line with my GT5 lifetime predictions. My estimate of 4 million is a tad higher.

The biggest spats I have been reading here mainly concerns GT5 vs. past GT games lifetime sales and first week sales.

There is nothing in Gran Turismo 5's preorders, currently, to make me believe there is more hype beyond the 260,000 preroders for Gran Turismo 5 to break the million barrier in it's first week.


I have my predictions, I am sticking to them regardless of any spin from individuals who have anything more than a minor passing of pride invested in them becoming true. It ain't like I am losing money or parts of my brain. I can do that by myself.

2.3-2.5 million week 1 is what you have put forth and many are following. What if the numbers come in at 2.2m, 2.1m, 1.9m, or 1.5m? How will you react?

Furthermore, if my prediction is ludicrous then why do others feel the need to respond to it? If the Prologue sales were any indicator, then shouldn't worries have already been assuaged to the point where others don't feel the need to respond to my prediction? Do I sense a tad bit of doubt that if GT5 doesn't reach 10 million in 6 months time, then others will feel some sort of loss?

The game has done much lower than many expected in just one region (Japan). It's done about what I thought it would do, thus far, in the Americas and significantly better in EMEAA. It seems that some who thought it wouldn't do nearly as good as it has can't admit they were wrong and move on. They also measure GT5's sales by other games outside of it's genre. It's not that big of a big deal, but let's at least be consistent.

I was having such a pleasant exchange with Alby until you had to drag up the past. We have had this discussion before CGI-Quality. Funny how you fail to mention my last post in the thread you quoted me from:

I am merely restating my prediction from a Solid_Snake4RD thread. Yes, I low-balled it to both agitate and fall at the lower end as some in that thread are predicting 11 millio plus lifetime and 4 to 5 million first week. Someone had to drag up the bottom.

I can tell you now my prediction will be wrong if you or I take it at face value.

My internal prediction, which some may be taken aback at after thoroughly hating my low prediction is 1.2 million first week and 9.5 million lifetime.

I apologize for changing it up and pushing buttons. I never mean for anyone to take it personally, nor for anyone including myself to become as predictable in their posting as a Malstrom blog post. Call it hypocrisy, but in the industry in which I work we have to change our approach and demeanor on a dime because the clients we serve, along with all humans, are not predictable creatures. We do have our set habits, but those can be subject to change on a whim if the individual so desires or if compelled to.

I guess that is a long-winded way of saying I am a hypocrite, you are too, so what is the fuss all about?

-Killiana1a, "Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell..." http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117968&page=53

As for you, here is what you said in the same thread:

A PS4 release is at the very least, 2 years away. Also, "the age of shooters" is irrelevant, because if it weren't, previous PlayStation franchises with iterations this gen would have been heavily affected. Well, God of War & Metal Gear Solid had no problems, I doubt Sony's biggest franchise will have problems. It will likely clear 10 - 11 million without too much hassle, but not outsell GT3.

-CGI-Quality, "Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell..." http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117968&page=3

I don't want to get this thread anymore off-track than it is already, but neither of us is in the right. I trolled GT5 because of the Jesus level hype it was receiving. It was deserving to be trolled. I will do the same for Gears of War 3 because I am deeply unsatisfied with the series after Gears of War.

So yes, I admit to low-balling and trolling. Furthermore, I am going to equal opportunity troll Gears of War 3 once it's hype train starts. Hold me to this because I want to be "consistent" as you said.

As for the others saying I was "PWNED," do your homework and bring a pencil to class before laughing at other's mishaps. All of us have been wrong and will be wrong again. I did not ask for this, but I deserved like I will deserve it if I am wrong in my Gears of War 3 predictions.

 

Yep, reading again, it's clear you were blatantly and deliberately over the top, not stealthy trolling while pretending to be objective like some GT5 true haters, although in favour of 10-11M predictions (and not larger and really excessive ones) there is, besides the first fact that it's just ~5-16% higher than 9.5M, also the fact that 2nd and 3rd best selling GTs are so close together that should GT5 manage to get 4th place and with sales not dying too fast, once the 3rd is at reach, it would just be natural to ship enough budget editions and bundles to surpass not only it, but 2nd too, conquering 2nd place. At that point heavy bundling it instead of any other less known Sony franchise would be just natural for the image return and future benefits from keeping the franchise very well known and strong selling. It's also undeniable that GT is a franchise that is often blamed for releasing too slowly, very different from others, particularly some sports ones, that are so milked and overused, that I'm surprised their fans didn't get fed up yet, but luckily it isn't either by any means almost vapourware like Duke Nukem became before finally been resurrected so late that its success chances are one of the biggest question marks of the industry.

If you ask me, what pissed GT5 fans and also more neutral racer fans the most, wasn't you, but other people deliberately ignoring every argument in favour of GT5 when someone answered them, as if those arguments never existed and never were cited, making discussing with them as productive as talking to a brick wall, and citing ad nauseam the reviews most in bad faith against it, like the one that didn't even realize that the damage model became more realistic gradually, as the player gets more experienced, bashing it instead as if it remained forever easy and unrealistic, or the one mostly praising it, but then bashing it with a low score just because it was released later. About the former issue, as fan of hard PC sim racers, I prefer the pure sim model, that on highest difficulty allows to set it at realistic level from the start, but I read that Sony listened to criticisms releasing a patch that should optionally allow it, and I also understand that the gradual system can be very good for users that wish to switch from arcade to sim without being scared and frustrated by high difficulty immediately blocking them.

Last week I finally tried it on a demo console, for my tastes even at its initial low difficulty settings, it's almost undrivable with the standard PS3 controller, I guess console gamers, more used to pads, should have no problems, but even if I became one of them, I'd prefer a wheel for racers. This is good about the realism of its driving model, though, as I was able to beat the more arcade TOCA using a joystick, before buying my first wheel, while without a wheel I was at most third to last on the easiest GPL tracks. I didn't notice anything that could disturb me in the background, as driving I pay very little attention to it, while cars and tracks are gorgeous. As expected, a modern Ferrari on GT5 is easier even than the less inhuman of the most competitive '67 F1's on GPL, the Brabham, this is just as it should be, and as I wrote, that modern Ferrari is still a lot harder, also on the easy initial difficulty, than Codemasters TOCA cars. Compared to Forza, that I tried months ago with the same dislike for standard console controllers, particularly for driving, I found suggested driving trajectory less obstructive of the view on GT5 and as much useful, possibly, although I normally don't use it. The cars I saw on GT5 were quite better looking than Forza ones, and also GT5 tracks' surface looks more realistic, although I care a lot more for physical realism, I'm perfectly fine with the far more primitive graphics of GPL. About their driving and physics models and rival AI drivers, my idiosyncrasy for gamepads prevented me from driving well enough to compare them. Finally, on both of them, a big NO to fully automatic transmission, it makes even a Ferrari bland. Good wheels with clutch pedal are too expensive for me, but even the cheaper ones have at least gear up and down pads, a quite comfortable minimum that already allows to almost fully enjoy sports car, and for many of the most modern ones, that really have automatic clutches, they are realistic enough too. Just avoid crappy Thrustmaster entry level ones like the plague, they are made of the crappiest materials I ever saw, and I broke the gear down pad almost immediately after a few series of frantic changes down.

About your fears for Gears: FPS is surely one of the genres of which the publishers, but many fans too, are most fond of overhype and millionaire marketing, if you grew fed up of all this, when next major FPS titles' hype will be at its highest you'll miss GT5 hype, that at least, like for any other sim racer, will always have an impassable limit: sims can only be at most as real as reality, not more.

Edit: corrected some typos and made clearer some points.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Alby_da_Wolf said:
Killiana1a said:

I was having such a pleasant exchange with Alby until you had to drag up the past. We have had this discussion before CGI-Quality. Funny how you fail to mention my last post in the thread you quoted me from:

I am merely restating my prediction from a Solid_Snake4RD thread. Yes, I low-balled it to both agitate and fall at the lower end as some in that thread are predicting 11 millio plus lifetime and 4 to 5 million first week. Someone had to drag up the bottom.

I can tell you now my prediction will be wrong if you or I take it at face value.

My internal prediction, which some may be taken aback at after thoroughly hating my low prediction is 1.2 million first week and 9.5 million lifetime.

I apologize for changing it up and pushing buttons. I never mean for anyone to take it personally, nor for anyone including myself to become as predictable in their posting as a Malstrom blog post. Call it hypocrisy, but in the industry in which I work we have to change our approach and demeanor on a dime because the clients we serve, along with all humans, are not predictable creatures. We do have our set habits, but those can be subject to change on a whim if the individual so desires or if compelled to.

I guess that is a long-winded way of saying I am a hypocrite, you are too, so what is the fuss all about?

-Killiana1a, "Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell..." http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117968&page=53

As for you, here is what you said in the same thread:

A PS4 release is at the very least, 2 years away. Also, "the age of shooters" is irrelevant, because if it weren't, previous PlayStation franchises with iterations this gen would have been heavily affected. Well, God of War & Metal Gear Solid had no problems, I doubt Sony's biggest franchise will have problems. It will likely clear 10 - 11 million without too much hassle, but not outsell GT3.

-CGI-Quality, "Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell..." http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117968&page=3

I don't want to get this thread anymore off-track than it is already, but neither of us is in the right. I trolled GT5 because of the Jesus level hype it was receiving. It was deserving to be trolled. I will do the same for Gears of War 3 because I am deeply unsatisfied with the series after Gears of War.

So yes, I admit to low-balling and trolling. Furthermore, I am going to equal opportunity troll Gears of War 3 once it's hype train starts. Hold me to this because I want to be "consistent" as you said.

As for the others saying I was "PWNED," do your homework and bring a pencil to class before laughing at other's mishaps. All of us have been wrong and will be wrong again. I did not ask for this, but I deserved like I will deserve it if I am wrong in my Gears of War 3 predictions.

 

Yep, reading again, it's clear you were blatantly and deliberately over the top, not stealthy trolling while pretending to be objective like some GT5 true haters, although in favour of 10-11M predictions (and not larger and really excessive ones) there is, besides the first fact that it's just ~5-16% higher than 9.5M, also the fact that 2nd and 3rd best selling GTs are so close together that should GT5 manage to get 4th place and with sales not dying too fast, once the 3rd is at reach, it would just be natural to ship enough budget editions and bundles to surpass not only it, but 2nd too, conquering 2nd place. At that point heavy bundling it instead of any other less known Sony franchise would be just natural for the image return and future benefits from keeping the franchise very well known and strong selling. It's also undeniable that GT is a franchise that is often blamed for releasing too slowly, very different from others, particularly some sports ones, that are so milked and overused, that I'm surprised their fans didn't get fed up yet, but luckily it isn't either by any means almost vapourware like Duke Nukem became before finally been resurrected so late that its success chances are one of the biggest question marks of the industry.

If you ask me, what pissed GT5 fans and also more neutral racer fans the most, wasn't you, but other people deliberately ignoring every argument in favour of GT5 when someone answered them, as if those arguments never existed and never were cited, making discussing like them as productive as talking to a brick wall, and citing ad nauseam the reviews most in bad faith against it, like the one that didn't even realize that the damage model became more realistic gradually, as the player gets more experienced, bashing it instead as if it remained forever easy and unrealistic, or the one mostly praising it, but then bashing it with a low score just because it was released later. About the former issue, as fan of hard PC sim racers, I prefer the pure sim model, that on highest difficulty allows to set it at realistic level from the start, but I read that Sony listened to criticisms releasing a patch that should optionally allow it, and I also understand that the gradual system can be very good for users that wish to switch from arcade to sim without being scared and frustrated by high difficulty immediately blocking them.

Last week I finally tried it on a demo console, for my tastes even at its initial low difficulty settings, it's almost undrivable with the standard PS3 controller, I guess console gamers, more used to pads, should have no problems, but even if I became one of them, I'd prefer a wheel for racers. This is good about the realism of its driving model, though, as I was able to beat the more arcade TOCA using a joystick, before buying my first wheel, while without a wheel I was at most third to last on the easiest GPL tracks. I didn't notice anything that could disturb me in the background, as driving I pay very little attention to it, while cars and tracks are gorgeous. As expected, a modern Ferrari on GT5 is easier even than the less inhuman of the most competitive '67 F1's on GPL, the Brabham, this is just as it should be, and as I wrote, that modern Ferrari is still a lot harder, also on the easy initial difficulty, than Codemasters TOCA cars. Compared to Forza, that I tried months ago with the same dislike for standard console controllers, particularly for driving, I found the suggested driving trajectory less obstructive of the view and as much useful, possibly, although I normally don't use it. The cars I saw on GT5 were quite better looking than Forza ones, and also GT5 tracks' surface looks more realistic, although I care a lot more for physical realism, I'm perfectly fine with the far more primitive graphics of GPL. About their driving and physics models and rival AI drivers, my idiosyncrasy for gamepads prevented me from driving well enough to compare them. Finally, on both of them, a big NO to fully automatic transmission, it makes even a Ferrari bland. Good wheels with clutch pedal are too expensive for me, but even the cheaper ones have at least gear up and down pads, a quite comfortable minimum that already allows to almost fully enjoy sports car, and for many of the most modern ones, that really have automatic clutches, they are realistic enough too. Just avoid crappy Thrustmaster entry level ones like the plague, they are made of the crappiest materials I ever saw, and I broke the gear down pad almost immediately after a few series of frantic changes down.

About your fears for Gears: FPS is surely one of the genres of which the publishers, but many fans too, are most fond of overhype and millionaire marketing, if you grew fed up of all this, when next major FPS titles' hype will be at its highest you'll miss GT5 hype, that at least, like for any other sim racer, will always have an impassable limit: sims can only be at most as real as reality, not more.

Past is past. Once Gran Turismo 5 came out, the 1st week sales shut me up. As for reviews, anyone who drags up review scores to take a hit at a game is shamefully operating from the gutter.

I agree, I don't like arguing with a brick wall. Likewise, I am wise enough to not respond to one line, knee jerk reactions. If someone is not going to take a step back, do some reading comprehension, and respond in a thoughtful manner, then I feel no obligation to give them the time of day.

Getting back on topic, each system had a good 2010 holiday. PS3 dipped somewhat which I blame to their mishandling of Move and to the overhandling of Kinect from Microsoft. This being said, the PS3 is a great seller year round (better than the 360 imo) because it is a solid system with a solid library. Microsoft got their numbers because of their $500 million plus marketing push for Kinect, this week's numbers don't surprise me because I had a hunch Microsoft would not keep up with the advertising after Christmas.

As for Nintendo, what can we say? They are down year-over-year since 2008, but the Wii continues to sell. I credit the Wii's solid holiday lineup with Donkey Kong and Epic Mickey driving a lot of it along with Just Dance 2.

As for the remaining winter months until the release of the 3DS, I have a gut feeling that Nintendo and Sony will be first and second week after week with Microsoft tailing behind. Once the 3DS launches, we will all be swimming in the news of it. Interesting year ahead.



palancas7 said:

Found this on Gaf

Best NPD months:

1.) Wii Dec 2009: 3.81 million
2.) DS Dec 2009: 3.31 million
3.) DS Dec 2008: 3.04 million
4.) PS2 Dec 2002: 2.73 million
5.) DS Dec 2010: 2.5X million
6.) DS Dec 2007: 2.47 million
7.) Wii Dec 2010: 2.36 million
8.) GBA Dec 2003: 2.26 million
9.) Wii Dec 2008: 2.15 million
10.) GBA Dec 2002: 2.14 million
11.) GBA Dec 2004: 2.06 million
12.) Wii Nov 2008: 2.04 million

So this was Wii's 2nd best December ever.  Yet some people are still with their finger on the panic button.

Interesting. I'd love to see figures for the PS2's fifth holiday in the US as a comparison. They can't have been too hot though, VGChartz has the PS2 at 5.5m in the whole America's for the equivalent year in its entirety (compared to the Wii's 9.1m this year)... Obviously that would be even less for the year in the US alone.



VGChartz

Carl2291 said:
RolStoppable said:
Carl2291 said:
palancas7 said:

Found this on Gaf

Best NPD months:

1.) Wii Dec 2009: 3.81 million
7.) Wii Dec 2010: 2.36 million
 
So this was Wii's 2nd best December ever.  Yet some people are still with their finger on the panic button.

I imagine that some people have their fingers on the panic button because the Wii is down by 1.45 Million units on last Years tally.

Wouldn't celebration button be a more fitting term?

Yeah but I didn't want Maxwell or dunno to ban me.

not sure why that would be the case. It lost 1.45 milions from a record month and still outsold everything else. That's something to celebrate cause the lead was so large that even a 38% drop still make it 26% ahead of the closest competitor.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

Mabe its already been addressed but nobody thinks across Canada and all "America" GT could have sold an additional 200k or such to make VGC pretty spot on?



recent vgc adjustments for all of americas (think it was just Wii and 360) 11/28-1/1 vs NPD Dec

wii 3.26  vs NPD 2.36 difference 900k

360 2.76  vs NPD 1.86 difference 900k

ps3 1.41  vs NPD 1.21 difference 200k



                                                             

                                                                      Play Me

CGI-Quality said:
Killiana1a said:

As for you, here is what you said in the same thread:

A PS4 release is at the very least, 2 years away. Also, "the age of shooters" is irrelevant, because if it weren't, previous PlayStation franchises with iterations this gen would have been heavily affected. Well, God of War & Metal Gear Solid had no problems, I doubt Sony's biggest franchise will have problems. It will likely clear 10 - 11 million without too much hassle, but not outsell GT3.

-CGI-Quality, "Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell..." http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=117968&page=3

I don't want to get this thread anymore off-track than it is already, but neither of us is in the right. I trolled GT5 because of the Jesus level hype it was receiving. It was deserving to be trolled. I will do the same for Gears of War 3 because I am deeply unsatisfied with the series after Gears of War.

So yes, I admit to low-balling and trolling. Furthermore, I am going to equal opportunity troll Gears of War 3 once it's hype train starts. Hold me to this because I want to be "consistent" as you said.

As for the others saying I was "PWNED," do your homework and bring a pencil to class before laughing at other's mishaps. All of us have been wrong and will be wrong again. I did not ask for this, but I deserved like I will deserve it if I am wrong in my Gears of War 3 predictions.

I would suggest finding some place in that thread where I wasn't consistent if it's to compare to what you have displayed. You admit to trolling and then in the same post want to be pardoned. Doesn't matter if you suddenly want to appear fair in your thoughts now, you weren't where you were quoted, and you weren't in the thread I pulled up. Between that thread and now, you contradicted yourself. Not a big deal, but it does put things in perspective.

I have no problem discussing it with you reasonably, as you mentioned to Alby, but don't come off in a manner that you don't want laid back upon you. I'm not saying everyone chanting "PWNED" is right/reasonable either, but understand that there were places in that past thread where you switched up and wanted to come off as fair (from previous posts in there), but now you've switched right back in here:

"I could go on a rant calling out those who hyped Gran Turismo 5, but my honor prevents me from doing so. Instead, it's measly 500k in December 2010 will just make me chuckle smugly at how right many others and I, who tried to temper the Gran Turismo 5 hype train, were. If you cannot top 1 million in December, then those legs must be pretty damn short".

That is why you were quoted. There was a lack of consistency between our last conversation and now.

There is always a lack of consistency no matter what type of faux "honor" individuals hold themsevles to for "consistency." I would rather be a hypocrite and own up to it than be some knight on the forums who is "consistent," yet can never own up to his or her mistakes or apologize when he/she is wrong.

I hate to sound so narcissitic, but when my past inconsistencies get brought up I have to address them :)



Well, that was... not unexpected. If there are worldwide adjustments, my 2010 year end numbers may not have been too far off anyways. Last post holiday season we saw some pretty big adjustments as well, always surprises me how people seem to forget this.



Mummelmann said:

Well, that was... not unexpected. If there are worldwide adjustments, my 2010 year end numbers may not have been too far off anyways. Last post holiday season we saw some pretty big adjustments as well, always surprises me how people seem to forget this.


So you expect Wii to be overtracked by 2.2M?



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Nintendogamer said:
Mummelmann said:

Well, that was... not unexpected. If there are worldwide adjustments, my 2010 year end numbers may not have been too far off anyways. Last post holiday season we saw some pretty big adjustments as well, always surprises me how people seem to forget this.


So you expect Wii to be overtracked by 2.2M?


No, not quite that much but I expect my year end prediction to be a lot closer than both the user average and that of the Vgchartz analyst team. Most people predicted either flat from 2009, slightly up or slightly down (around 19-20 million). If it is overtracked by 1 million worldwide, I'll still be a lot closer (18.2 total) than most.