Natal is going to be this generations Sega CD. An expensive add on that was supposed to make everything butter but won't.

Whats keeping the 360 where it is can be summed up in one word. Price. Once the PS3 gets cheap enough component wise that it can drop again to 199 it will be even more over then it is right now.

Every time the 360 drops in price it goes ahead again, but as soon as there is a 100 dollar gap in price the PS3 beats it. Since 200 dollars is more or less the lower bound for price (99 dollars never helped the gamecube) its pretty clear that price alone won't keep the 360 afloat much longer. Later this year there will be a 249 and then a 199 PS3 and the sales gap will only accelerate. Look for the 360 to end this gen at about 50-60 mil sold tops, while the PS3 and Wii both hit 100 mil before the consoles life ends.


The Natal won't change that, I mean how many kids interested in casual motion controlled games don't have a Wii by now? 10?

I've said this elsewhere, but I've always envisioned Project Natal as the Nintendo Revolution without having to buy a whole new console.

In that sense, its MS expanding their audience beyond the hardcore. I don't see that as so much a sign of desperation but more as an evolution of the later stages of a console gen. With even the current combined install base of the PS3 and 360 (just under 70 mil), how much more core gamers are out there to keep this gen going with its current approach?

No it is not the 360's last hope. Natal will play to a specific demographic and it will see decent sales but that is not your core 360 buyer. What will attract new buyers is another price drop and a console redesign. Then everybody will run out and buy a new one. Look for MS to release the 720 sooner than expected and try to catch Sony with their pants down.

The thread's title is a little provocative, but yes, I pretty much think so.

Ever since the PS3s price cut, the PS3 was significantly ahead of the 360 in terms of hardware sales. (Well, except for one week in November when Microsoft started banning more than a million 360 consoles.)

I see only two events that could change things:
- Price cuts
- Interesting new hardware

I'm sure Microsoft will reduce 360 prices once again this year, but I doubt even that will strengthen 360 hardware sales that much. The 360 is already the cheapest of the three consoles, another price alone will not attract many new customers. And Sony could do price cuts on the PS3 as well, and PS3 price cuts would probably boost PS3 sales more than 360 price cuts would boost 360 sales.

So without interesting new hardware like Natal, I think the 360 would be doomed. But I think Natal is really going to change things. Natal is targeting for a target audience for which the 360 was completely uninteresting so far: casual gamers. Bundle a 360 with a Natal cam and a mini-game collection and sell the whole bundle for 199, and Microsoft might actually be able to get millions of new customers - especially those who are generally interested in a Wii but would really prefer a console with HD graphics.

I think project natal is a joke...


http://xe3.xanga.com/14ff7b7ad0134247183594/z195984938.jpg

See this?....this is natal..

Lets see:

• Console is profitable, can price cut if they so choose.
• They haven't cut more than 33% off the price AFAIK on the lower end.
• They have a slimline console coming *based off 45nm combined GPU/CPU*
• They have an epic Halo coming this year, Halo years are ALWAYS good years.
• They have Natal, which caused a bump in hardware sales the week it was announced at E3.
• They have a 5M lead to waste and time their moves how they want.

So what will likely they do?

• Probably no price cuts in the first half of the year. Second half is a possibility although they could end up just bundling Natal. Doing both would be an epic move.
• Epic advertisement campaign to coincide with Halo + Natal.
• Try to repeat 2008 im guessing with a strong finish.
• Slim console, loses all prior reputation for unreliability and adds features like wireless which they cannot add to the present design due to interference with 2.4Ghz controllers and case design.
• Add a reasonably quantity of flash to the Arcade design to make it viable, this means they can drop the price delta between Elite and Arcade to between $50 and $80 if they so chose. I figure 8-16GB would do for this. This makes predicting the end price hard. 

You're right!  And the Wii Remote is the Power Glove, The Balance Board is the Power Pad, and The PS3 controller is the Super Nes Controller!  Except for NO.

Just like the Empire they will STRIKE BACK.

You heard it here first the Wii will sell 10 consoles next week! Apparently everyone's privvy to some secret prophetic memo going around that details the exact number of the casual market, how the Wii 'owns' it and that Natal is expensive and sucks. 

Sir, why would you even defend Natal? Do you think anybody has the space for such a system? This isn't something for the average 360 owner (12 year old kids) my good man, this is for homeowners who actually game in their living rooms, this is for old people and parents, people with children and what not. Wii does the same thing and takes up less space, it can appeal to both parents and people who don't game in their living rooms...all you need is the controller and the world is yours.

Do they think that Natal will really draw people away from the Wii?

I love Sony and I love Nintendo, Microsoft will never have me!

WHAT OLD PERSON PLAYS HALO?