Honestly, I think the 360 has already established itself for the gen and as such, doesn't need a "last hope". Regardless of the success or failure of natal, 360 is gonna be around. If you had added "in Japan", the OP would have made a lot more sense but in somewhere like the U.S., the 360 is as healthy as can be. It has already outsold no 2 console of last gen and isn't selling much less than ps3 at present while maintaining a 5 mil lead

slowmo do you really think ps3 will fall to #3 in sales again, if gt5 comes out at Christmas for NA and EU, you can pretty much forget that.
I voted yes because i believe that Natal will alienate the x360's current audience. Just an opinion remember :P

Absolutely mate hence why I took that bet we have.  The main reason why in my opinion it will happen is that the 360 is long overdue a price cut on the lowest price model and that will come this xmas.  The Arcade will be $149 by xmas imo and at that point it will accelerate past the PS3 in a similar fashion to the PS3 "slim" cut this year.  That is without bringing into effect the Halo effect and all the marketing that will hit around then and any possible impact Natal will have. 

I know there is a lot of Sony fans absolutely convinced GT5 is going to be a huge system seller but I don't see it being any better than other big games personally.  I don't read a lot about people intent on buying a PS3 to play GT5, the majority own it already.  Also any impact of games on sales now is short term not long term so the huge boost would be limited to the first 2-4 weeks anyway at the very best.  GT5 cannot save the PS3 in the US, its number 3 for life now, it might help more in Europe but again not long term.

Could Natal alienate the curent fanbase?  Sure but that would mean they don't buy the product and the games for it and then developers will carry on with hardcore games that we're used to, the point here is that the 360 offers developers that ability that the Wii struggles with to a degree.  I guess thats why I don't consider Natal the last hope at all, it's a weapon they have to use but not the last chance people seem to think.  The 360 will always be cheaper than the PS3 and thats what Microsoft have to market towards, a console that is cheaper but performs almost the exactly the same, Natal is just the bonus.

You of course may have a different opinion and thats fine

Fair enough, hehe, thanks for explaining your point of view, I can see what you mean, but i still l know quite a few people who are waiting for the real GT5, prologue was not enough for them really, so based on that it will help out in Eupope and Japan but US was and still is MS territory, nothing Sony can do will really give them a huge advantage over x360 (to be honest i'm surprised it managed even grounds past two weeks lol), however MS cannot keep #2 by just having one market.

Anyway I hope either way, the x360 stays around as it actually forced Sony to Wake up, as you know, competition is good, and that way us gamers get spoiled

Exactly, I hope Nintendo and Sony continue to push Microsoft hard too.  Without the Wii then Natal would never be getting released this generation!  By Sony being such a powerhouse in terms of developers they're forcing Microsoft to aggresively chase new and old franchises from third parties while also pushing their own studios to try and keep up.  This generation is the first time all the protagonists have a fair crack at being there at the end still fighting and its fantastic!  Gamers are real people too and I really like that no console is being ignored this generation by third parties thus depriving people of value in their investment. 

By the way, even if the 360 takes over PS3 sales it will be back behind again within a year when Sony cut price again so it's not doom and gloom for the PS3 if it does fall back to third for a little while imo.

yeah i'll agree even if PS3 should fall (and i hope not), that it will be back with a vengance, no console is doomed in this generation. Also I think Wii is going to keep on surprising people I think this year it will get over 50% of the market and start to pull away again, all because of Zelda that game is too awesome lol.