So I bet Chrizum that Madworld would sell 1 million in it's fist year of sales. And while there is still technically 7 weeks to go on that bet, I don't think it's going to move 600 thousand units in that time. Where did I go wrong? I thought the style would give it a broader appeal than the genre normally enjoys and the over the top nature would get it more talked about. But boy, I was wrong.

So Chriz, what shall I do as loser of the bet?

And now that I've lost that one, I'd like to make a new 1 year million sales bet. Red Steel 2.

"But Stof!" you shout, "Ubisoft themselves just cut their projection to 500,000. You really think it will sell twice what the publisher expects!?"

Yes I do. I still think that as the game that delivers on the promises made by Red Steel, it will be a major title. Red Steel sold big on promise but butchered both shooting and sword fighting.  Subsequent FPS's showed us that IR aiming can be so much better than the first Red Steel was and Sports Resort with M+ has showed us that sword fighting can actually be one of the most enjoyable gameplay experiences of all time.

Take one of the best looking Wii games, with an M+ bundle and the ability to shoot and sword fight and I think this game is going to be a legger. I think it'll push 1 million in it's first year, if not by the end of 2010. Any takers on that bet?

You also lost your GTA china town bet, you said it would sell amazingly well during the holidays, in reality it didn't

I'll take that bet. The 3rd party games that I have seen that release a sequel don't seem to reach their predecessor =)

True. Did anyone take that bet? I really did think they'd have had the brains to at least keep pushing the game a bit. I still stand by that if they'd actually kept up some advertising, my prediction would have been completely true.

Your definitely right on that one. A lot of Third party Wii sequels have done much poorer than their predecessor. However, I've noticed that a lot of that is based on what I am now going to call "Experience" gameplay. A lot of successful Wii games were built around offering a specific experience, so when a sequel comes out that offers the same experience, those that own the game say "well I already have a game that does that" and those that don't own the game can't help but notice that there's already an older and cheaper version of the game out there. Some good examples of this are Shaun White, Dance Dance Revolution, Deca Sports and the Game Party series.

The other notable example of what you speak would be Darkside Chronicles. Though that one is in a unique position as a railshooter, which by that point was seen as "just another rail shooter" Though I do expect that over time we'll see that game start to pick up like House of the Dead is right now.

So why isn't Red Steel 2 just another "the same experience again" title? M+ would be the major reason. The first game promised the experience of sword fighting but didn't actually deliver. Hands on time with RS 2 shows that we have our first actual sword fighting videogame (after Sports Resort) And sword fighting is just damn fun. This game offers an entirely new experience. Balance board snowboarding did wonders for Shaun White, why wouldn't M+ sword fighting do double duty wonders for RS2? The game also has much stronger shooting controls than it's predecessor, which most people noticed really didn't handle aiming well. Infact, as the first FPS to use M+ to assist with off screen recognition of where the Wiimote is pointing, it'll be the first Wii FPS to do away with one of the Wiimotes inherent FPS limitations. That'll help it as well.

Also, it looks amazing. No one can say it's just another Red Steel in any way shape or form.

After looking at the numbers for Red Steel 2. I really don't see how it is possible for it to reach a million in under a year.

The original Red Steel only managed ~479K the first year. And that is with an opening of ~133K.

After taking a look at VGC's latest pre-order numbers it doesn't even make the top 30, so that puts it's numbers at around 17K. Those would have to be some mad legs to reach that million mark in a year 

So what should our bet be?

The original Red Steel wa a launch title that sold well on hype and died the moment people actually played it and found out that the shooting controls were akward and the sword fighting wasn't really sword fighting (and also that it was a rush job of a launch game).

For preorders. I don't know how strong a debut it will have( though there is plenty of time for pre-orders to come) But I think it will have the combo of core appeal through good reviews and tight gameplay and a broader appeal through it's unique and appealing gameplay mechanics and solid word of mouth.

As for the bet terms, Sig and Av stuff?

Sounds good =)

One month?

So what's the bet? Red Steel to make 1m in one calendar yr? Or Years end? Either way I think Stof will win.

Sure. Alright dsisister44. It's a bet. Red Steel 2 will reach one million in sales within one year(365 days) of it's release. One month of Av and Sig is the stakes.