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Forums - General Discussion - Blu-Ray outsells HD DVD 79:21 week ending 11/04

FishyJoe said:
Howard Stringer, the CEO of Sony, is saying that the format war is far from over. If Blu-ray was really dominating, does anyone actually believe he would say there is a stalemate? If he believed that Blu-ray was really taking off, he would be all over it like white on rice.

This is true, if Warner stays neutral, or goes with HD DVD, and other BDA officials have hinted that the latter may be possible.

However, if Warner goes with Blu-Ray, then the war could still be won by one side, as long as they do it before HD DVD becomes deeply entrenched.  And the may just do so, since they know that they are in a position to decide this war, and have hinted that they may do so after the 4th quarter numbers are in.



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Betamax was also the most popular format before VHS destroyed it.



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The HD war wont be incredibly important until HD TVs, DVD Players, and DVDs get down to a reasonable price. This is when most of the public will buy into it all.



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(pretending to be dwight schrute from The Office)

Fact. 300 is not the highest selling HD in the first week, Transformers is (depends who you believe. If you believe Sony's 130k, you might as well believe Paramount's 190k).

Someone said no way 40k Transformers sold in the 3rd week. Two thoughts. 1) Sony overstated the 130k, or 2) Transformers DID sell over 40k.

Anyways, back to topic. These Nielsen charts are not complete.

Fact. They do not include Walmart numbers.

Fact again. Last Friday, walmart + bestbuy + circuitcity + etc. sold over 90,000 stand alones, of which walmart sold approximately 60k. They had additional promotion going on which each HD DVD was only $14.99. Most stores allowed most, if not all to sell for $14.99. Many who did not get the HD-A2 also flocked to buy the HD DVDs. It is safe and conservative to presume that on average, for every person who bought an HD-A2, there should be an average of 2 HD DVDs walking out the door at the same time. 60,000 x 2 = 120k HD DVDS unaccounted for. If you want to be conservative, sure, take 1 HD DVD per person (including people who went there for HD DVDs only), and that's still a minimum of 60,000 HD DVDs unaccounted for just for that SINGLE day.

Nielsen numbers without walmart numbers really doesn't tell all that's going on. This is just an analysis (which is very common at consulting firms to take information and turn it into something for marketing usage). But believe whatever you want, even if it's not the whole story. :)

BTW, Home Media Magazine does not equal VideoScan. Nielsen VideoScan is ONE partnership.  Home Media Magazine was the one to just list the Nielsen VideoScan data/numbers in their magazine.



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Delusional said:

(pretending to be dwight schrute from The Office)

Fact. 300 is not the highest selling HD in the first week, Transformers is (depends who you believe. If you believe Sony's 130k, you might as well believe Paramount's 190k).

Someone said no way 40k Transformers sold in the 3rd week. Two thoughts. 1) Sony overstated the 130k, or 2) Transformers DID sell over 40k.

Anyways, back to topic. These Nielsen charts are not complete.

Fact. They do not include Walmart numbers.

Fact again. Last Friday, walmart + bestbuy + circuitcity + etc. sold over 90,000 stand alones, of which walmart sold approximately 60k. They had additional promotion going on which each HD DVD was only $14.99. Most stores allowed most, if not all to sell for $14.99. Many who did not get the HD-A2 also flocked to buy the HD DVDs. It is safe and conservative to presume that on average, for every person who bought an HD-A2, there should be an average of 2 HD DVDs walking out the door at the same time. 60,000 x 2 = 120k HD DVDS unaccounted for. If you want to be conservative, sure, take 1 HD DVD per person (including people who went there for HD DVDs only), and that's still a minimum of 60,000 HD DVDs unaccounted for just for that SINGLE day.

Nielsen numbers without walmart numbers really doesn't tell all that's going on. This is just an analysis (which is very common at consulting firms to take information and turn it into something for marketing usage). But believe whatever you want, even if it's not the whole story. :)

BTW, Home Media Magazine does not equal VideoScan. Nielsen VideoScan is ONE partnership.


Ah, I may have gotten my names mixed up. I just know that HMM takes the Nielson numbers and estimates in Wal-mart's figures, at least according to the guys at hidefdigest.com.

Also, there were 400,000 copies of Spiderman shipped, with only 130,000 sold.  We KNOW that Spidey sold 130,000.  However, the 190k figure for Transformers was announced by Paramount, with HMM/Nielson releasing a 115k sold-to-consumers number just days later.



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A Sony insider on Bly-Ray.com has confirmed the 130'000 figure includes the single movie and the box set.



The numbers you put in your title are wrong.  It should be 71:29, not 79:21.

 

And the actual sales numbers are closer to:

 

  • Spider-Man 3 BD 
    100.00 (75,000)
  • Spider-Man: The High Definition Trilogy BD 
    71.95 (55,000)
  • Transformers HD 
    31.42 (23,500)
  • Meet the Robinsons BD 
    8.82 (6,500)
  • 300 BD 
    6.56 (5,000)
  • Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer BD
    5.03 (4,000)
  • License to Wed BD 
    4.24 (3,200)
  • The Shining BD 
    4.11 (3,100)
  • Mr. Brooks BD 
    4.03 (3,000)
  • 2001: A Space Odyssey BD 
    3.88 (2,900)


  • My prediction (Jan 15th, 2008), total sales by end of 2008: Wii - 35 million X360 - 25 million PS3 - 21 million