NA sales.  Worldwide sales are harder to gage. 

In Japan, Blu-Ray has about 95% marketshare, but the market over there is harder to compare to the US. They've been into HD longer than the US, but they generally havedifferent tastes from the US, and are oft ignored by the Hollywood studios.

In Europe/Australia, HD in general is almost non-existent, so sales don't really matter at this point in time.  The war will probably be decided by the time they really start getting into HD.  

But what about the $99 HD DVD players? Toshiba said they sold 90,000 over the weekend, which is about 15-20% of total standalone sales for Toshiba (they've sold a little over 400,000 so far). That should've boosted software sales a good bit, but it didn't.

I think it confirms my theory that people waiting to buy $99 players won't buy too many $30 movies. Of course, we'll need a few more weeks worth of data to truly see the affect of the new owners.

people still enjoying the free movies from those newly bought HD DVD players, in a week or two we'll start to see some increase sales from these new owners.

 What free movies?  The ones they picked up in-store?  Those were swiped at the register, and would've counted towards sales.  The mail-in rebates?  Thos won't come for a few months.

The vast majority of the new HD DVD players were sold at Walmart, Walmart sales don't count in Nielsen figures.

Reality is a harsh mistress lol.

Seriously this is impressive for Blu-ray, but I have to agree that both are most likely here to stay, and neither are relevant hehe.

I don't really care how relevant they are for regular people, as long as I can get my movies in HD I'm happy.

The sales figures in brackets are wrong by the way, Spiderman 3 sold 130K counting both sku's (Spiderman 3 and the trilogy), there is no way Transformers sold over 40K in it's 3rd week.  A fact backed up by the bd 300 figure which has been tracking at around 3000 a week for some time.

Howard Stringer, the CEO of Sony, is saying that the format war is far from over. If Blu-ray was really dominating, does anyone actually believe he would say there is a stalemate? If he believed that Blu-ray was really taking off, he would be all over it like white on rice.

I attribute it to the plethora of new HD DVD playerssold last weekend.

Also, you said the Nielson numbers don't count Wal-mart. This is true, however, Videoscan (Home Media Magazine) takes the Nielson numbers and throws in estimates of Wal-mart's figures, which is why the Nielson and VideoScan numbers differ so often.