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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Top 10 Selling RPGs of 2010 (expected)

daggy on 17 January 2010
JaggedSac said:
Fallout will do better than Fable 3 as well.


When is Fallout due to release?

There is no date yet, other than coming out this year.



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Barozi on 17 January 2010
daggy said:
darthdevidem01 said:
My list:

1. Pokemon Gold/Silve Remake

2. Final Fantasy XIII

3. World Of Warcraft : Cataclysm

4. Fallout New Vegas

5. Mass Effect 2

6. Fable 3

7. Dragon Quest IX (remember most of its sales are done in Japan, it doesn't sell much in the west)

8. Star Trek Online

9. Final Fantasy XIV

10. Guild Wars 2

I'm including the sales from Japan, because otherwise it's not as fun comparing the sales of the games to me.

As for your list, WoW: Cataclysm should always be #1 because no doubt it will easily sell over 10 million, and I don't see any other game from the list that will reach it.

And Guild Wars 2 is too low. Remember, GW1 + expansions sold over 6 millions.

Star Trek Online is selling great on pre-order. If it comes out as a good game, it will sell millions, like any great MMO. It was #1 and #9 last week on Steam.

I totally forgot about FFXIV.

I seriously doubt that.

The last known number for WoW subscribers was 11.5m. There's no way over 85% of them will buy the add-on.



daggy on 17 January 2010
Barozi said:
daggy said:
darthdevidem01 said:
My list:

1. Pokemon Gold/Silve Remake

2. Final Fantasy XIII

3. World Of Warcraft : Cataclysm

4. Fallout New Vegas

5. Mass Effect 2

6. Fable 3

7. Dragon Quest IX (remember most of its sales are done in Japan, it doesn't sell much in the west)

8. Star Trek Online

9. Final Fantasy XIV

10. Guild Wars 2

I'm including the sales from Japan, because otherwise it's not as fun comparing the sales of the games to me.

As for your list, WoW: Cataclysm should always be #1 because no doubt it will easily sell over 10 million, and I don't see any other game from the list that will reach it.

And Guild Wars 2 is too low. Remember, GW1 + expansions sold over 6 millions.

Star Trek Online is selling great on pre-order. If it comes out as a good game, it will sell millions, like any great MMO. It was #1 and #9 last week on Steam.

I totally forgot about FFXIV.

I seriously doubt that.

The last known number for WoW subscribers was 11.5m. There's no way over 85% of them will buy the add-on.

That's not how MMOs work, and it is possible that 85% of players could buy an expansion of an MMO.

The real reason that WoW: Cataclysm will sell so high is that the userbase always keeps renovating itself. Those 11.5 millions players will not always be the same guys. Every year hundreds of thousands or maybe millions of WoW players quit while new players come and cover up those who gave up. Which is why that World of Warcraft probably has sold well over 20 millions, while it only has 11.5 millions players.

And Wrath of the Lich King sold 2.8 millions in the first 24 hours. How much you think it would have sold 10 years from now? World of Warcraft will still be here for ages.



Barozi on 17 January 2010
daggy said:
Barozi said:
daggy said:
darthdevidem01 said:
My list:

1. Pokemon Gold/Silve Remake

2. Final Fantasy XIII

3. World Of Warcraft : Cataclysm

4. Fallout New Vegas

5. Mass Effect 2

6. Fable 3

7. Dragon Quest IX (remember most of its sales are done in Japan, it doesn't sell much in the west)

8. Star Trek Online

9. Final Fantasy XIV

10. Guild Wars 2

I'm including the sales from Japan, because otherwise it's not as fun comparing the sales of the games to me.

As for your list, WoW: Cataclysm should always be #1 because no doubt it will easily sell over 10 million, and I don't see any other game from the list that will reach it.

And Guild Wars 2 is too low. Remember, GW1 + expansions sold over 6 millions.

Star Trek Online is selling great on pre-order. If it comes out as a good game, it will sell millions, like any great MMO. It was #1 and #9 last week on Steam.

I totally forgot about FFXIV.

I seriously doubt that.

The last known number for WoW subscribers was 11.5m. There's no way over 85% of them will buy the add-on.

That's not how MMOs work, and it is possible that 85% of players could buy an expansion of an MMO.

The real reason that WoW: Cataclysm will sell so high is that the userbase always keeps renovating itself. Those 11.5 millions players will not always be the same guys. Every year hundreds of thousands or maybe millions of WoW players quit while new players come and cover up those who gave up. Which is why that World of Warcraft probably has sold well over 20 millions, while it only has 11.5 millions players.

And Wrath of the Lich King sold 2.8 millions in the first 24 hours. How much you think it would have sold 10 years from now? World of Warcraft will still be here for ages.

From my experience I know that many "new players" are actually the ones who quitted a while back.

Furthermore I thought you were talking about 2010 sales and not 10 years from now on....



jammy2211 on 17 January 2010

Erm, I'm not including sales that were accquired last year in Japan, becauseit's a 2010 list but er, here it goes:

1. Pokemon Gold / Silver
2. World of Warcradt: Catalism
3. Fallout New Vegas (I'm not sure this is 2010)
4. Final Fantasy XIII
5. New Pokemon Dungeon game
6. Mass Effect 2
7. Fable III
8. Star Trek Online
9. The Witcher 2
10. Final Fantasy XIV / Final Fantasy Versus XIII (Japan only, whichever releases in 2010).



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daggy on 17 January 2010
Barozi said:
daggy said:
Barozi said:
daggy said:
darthdevidem01 said:
My list:

1. Pokemon Gold/Silve Remake

2. Final Fantasy XIII

3. World Of Warcraft : Cataclysm

4. Fallout New Vegas

5. Mass Effect 2

6. Fable 3

7. Dragon Quest IX (remember most of its sales are done in Japan, it doesn't sell much in the west)

8. Star Trek Online

9. Final Fantasy XIV

10. Guild Wars 2

I'm including the sales from Japan, because otherwise it's not as fun comparing the sales of the games to me.

As for your list, WoW: Cataclysm should always be #1 because no doubt it will easily sell over 10 million, and I don't see any other game from the list that will reach it.

And Guild Wars 2 is too low. Remember, GW1 + expansions sold over 6 millions.

Star Trek Online is selling great on pre-order. If it comes out as a good game, it will sell millions, like any great MMO. It was #1 and #9 last week on Steam.

I totally forgot about FFXIV.

I seriously doubt that.

The last known number for WoW subscribers was 11.5m. There's no way over 85% of them will buy the add-on.

That's not how MMOs work, and it is possible that 85% of players could buy an expansion of an MMO.

The real reason that WoW: Cataclysm will sell so high is that the userbase always keeps renovating itself. Those 11.5 millions players will not always be the same guys. Every year hundreds of thousands or maybe millions of WoW players quit while new players come and cover up those who gave up. Which is why that World of Warcraft probably has sold well over 20 millions, while it only has 11.5 millions players.

And Wrath of the Lich King sold 2.8 millions in the first 24 hours. How much you think it would have sold 10 years from now? World of Warcraft will still be here for ages.

From my experience I know that many "new players" are actually the ones who quitted a while back.

Furthermore I thought you were talking about 2010 sales and not 10 years from now on....

Many players do come back to play, but there are also many new players. And to show you how insane the userbase renovation is, I'll get you one example, Lineage 2:

Lineage 2 has had over 19 millions subscribers in it's lifetime (that's 19 millions that payed monthly atleast once), yet it's highest peak of active subscribers at one time was only 2 millions. Right now, Lineage 2 only has around 600k subscribers.

World of Warcraft came out roughly the same time as Lineage 2, but it has over 11.5 millions subscribers right now, people actually playing the game, and it still hasn't reached it's peak.

 

So it's like this:

Lineage 2
Current Subscribers: 600k
Active Subscribers Peak: 2 millions
Total Lifetime Subscribers: 19 millions

World of Warcraft
Current Subscribers: 11.5 millions
Active Subscribers Peak: Hasn't peaked yet.
Total Lifetime Subscribers: 5 gazillions?



hunter_alien on 17 January 2010

I agree... the only bad choice was putting Fable so low... it will sell more then DQ9 in the west, it will do far better then STO and it has a pretty good shot at outselling ME2



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Kenryoku_Maxis on 17 January 2010
daggy said:

Top RPGs of 2010:

  1. World of Warcraft: Cataclysm (PC)
  2. Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (DS)
  3. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3/X360)
  4. Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (DS)
  5. Guild Wars 2 (PC)
  6. Star Trek Online (PC)
  7. Mass Effect 2 (PC/X360)
  8. Fable 3 (X360)
  9. Final Fantasy XIV (PS3/PC)
  10. Fallout: New Vegas (PC/X360/PS3)

What do you guys think? I ordered in terms of expected sales (not counting DLC or subscription revenues)

 

As much as I want DQIX to be successful, I don't think, even with Nintendo's help this time, it'll surpass all those other games you have listed.  It would have to sell at least 1.5-2 million additional units outside of Japan to surpass Mass Effect 2.  Even with the best advertising campaign from Nintendo, that probably isn't going to happen.  Add this to the fact that they haven't even started advertising it yet.

Likewise, eventhough Star Trek Online is getting some decent advertising, it just doesn't look like that strong of an MMO to support what they're advertising.  It may just be my personal opinion, but I don't think Star Trek Online is going to go very far.  Certainly not outselling Mass Effect 2 or Fable 3.

Also, is FFXIV coming out in 2010?



Six upcoming games you should look into: