It's important that people understand that based on a margin of error the real numbers could be either way, but I don't think that people need to shout "nuh uh, it's a statistical tie" everytime someone says that PS3 won this month. People take the numbers as they are, and if you made a bet with someone whether PS3 would be higher on NPD then this whole statistical tie mess doesn't matter in the least because all you are defining is which NPD put higher.

People say PS3 won because the NPD numbers we have reflect that. The actual sales may be different, but that possibility is always there.

And honestly I think you made this whole thread so you could post that overused Gif again.

edit: and on a side note, I don't count NPD as immediately superciding VGC numbers if the two are different, but I know some do.

I want to know when vgchartz has the Ps3 at 966k the other week, does this mean it could of been or was likely to been over a million ;)

---Huge cries of 'no'

There the difference is only 3.5%

---BUT BUT BUT thats completely different

i say 360 won but not by much.

there is tons of price cuts going on on america.
wallmark, dell, best buy, to not win.

they were even problems 120gb that were hard to find from dec 14 until some day ago

I think either way Wii beat the shit out of both HD consoles.

What you did there is quite uncalled for and childish.

OT: When it comes to estimates a win is not necessarily a win. The closer estimated 2 sales numbers are the higher the probability that the reverse order is actually true. With only a 50K difference in NPD between PS3 and 360 both being in the 1.3+ millions the probability that 360 in fact sold more than PS3 cannot be dismissed. But of course the probability that PS3 or 360 sold more than Wii is so ridiculously small that you can dismiss it without a moment's thought.

If PS3 fans want to crow about anything it's this: that PS3 has got itself into a position where its sales in the biggest sales month of the year are basically equal to a console that has previously been selling almost double what the PS3 used to sell. If PS3 can achieve sales parity with 360 for the remainder of this gen then that is a great result and one that a large number of people would have roundly dismissed less than a year ago. I think it's more than enough to make a PS3 fan smile like the Chesire cat: that your trust and confidence in the PS3 to come back from the brink and deliver with excellent games has been well and truly vindicated.

Could have been, yes.... likely... no.

The error margin determines where it could go up or down to if things don't go as expected (say a store that VGC gets data from sells proportionally less than usual)

NPD themselves it is possible for them to be 10% out (and in the past I am pretty sure they have been, thing is we don't get to see any adjustments NPD might make) though I would guess it is rare for them to be more than 5% out in their monthly numbers.

VGC going by month are probably within 10% each month.... but it is still more likely that the numbers fall nearer the middle of an estimate (by VGC or NPD) than near the edge.

For something to be likely over a million (likely meaning more chance of it being over than under 1 million) the VGC number would have to be over 1 million.

I think I stated that the image itself also inspired this thread, but I was also interested in a poll. Those that care, and how many don't care at all. It seems fairly split right now.

Yes, if you are betting NPD, then of course you have to take the numbers as they are, that is purely a bet. Obviously you could build into your bet a margin of error difference or the result is a tie, but that is not really the topic at hand.

When you look at the numbers though, from an objective standpoint, you can't strictly say 1 way or the other. I personally don't care one bit about the PS3/X360 race, so from my point of view they were statistically tied and I note it to myself when I look at the numbers. The same goes for VGChartz numbers with things like the PS3 94k vs X360 95k for NA this week.

(note, I don't mention other consoles, becuse those 2 typically are near each other where as the other consoles typically aren't, but do sometimes cross paths)

Now, do people need to shout "nuh uh, <intsert ps3 or x360 here> Won!1!!!1!".

both are not hard numbers. they are estimates

but if your Bet was by NPD , you lost, ps3 sold more.

So no prize for first and second?

hmmmmm well I could be wrong here, but AFAIK if the margin of error is +/-10% then every percentage within the range has the same probability.

Which means if NPD numbers and VGC numbers differ by 10% both have the same probability to be right. But that also means that even if they report the same numbers the probability doesn't increase.