By looking at the demos or trailers one could already see whether the game will be a hit or a flop, however its subjective at times. its usually the way how games are presented it self on the first time.

For some reason I believe MAG and HEAVY RAIN will be the biggest flops of 2010

Wii Relax. Epic fail for sure.

I'm a Sony fanboy but I'm gonna say Heavy Rain (Might fail), and MAG (Sure Fail)

I think No More Heroes: Heroes Paradise will fail commercially and critically.

I really think that Heavy Rain will be a failure sales wise, which SUCKS! I think that Alan Wake could get panned critically, because of it's extremely long dev time and it's not going to reinvent the survival horror wheel. It'll sell okay, I think, but not good review wise. This hurts too, because I'm really looking forward to both of those.

Let's see, Halo:Reach could end up under 90 on Meta, which I think people would find to be a failure. Splinter cell: Conviction could be light in the sales department as well.

@CGI- As much as I love your sig, it's totally screwing my machine right now.

I dont see MAG as a failure rather i see the game has alot of potential offer, Heavy rain on the other hand is a bit subjective, if people have played indigo prophecy than they will feel at home when it come to heavy rain but those who are new to it they might turn away from it

The Grinder
Gladiator AD

How about sleeper or "cult classic" for Heavy Rain when it is all set and done?  I don't see it having a huge impact salewise, but it might end up falling under the "classic" label when it is all set and done.  Anyhow, my take is what matters more is that people actually enjoy games that are released, without worrying about the sales numbers.

Define "fail".

Not outsell Wii Fit? Everything.

Not outsell Halo 3? Pretty much everything.

Not make a profit? Very little.

None of the games you listed will fail. They'll all break a million, and they'll all make profit.

I think Alan Wake will fail, your main weapon a flashlight WOW