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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official Dec 2009 NPD Thread (Data for 5 weeks ending Jan 2 in 5 hrs)

RPG on 14 January 2010

I'm in awe at those Mario Kart Wii sales...............literally no words. The next best selling racer on home consoles (GT5) will be lucky to do 1/3 those numbers.

Easily the most fun I have had on the Wii so here is to millions more!



 

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tombi123 on 14 January 2010
darthdevidem01 said:
tombi123 said:
By the way Darth, these error margins mean PS3 fans can claim that the PS3 sold 1M units in a week, two weeks in a row, given a 10% error margin.

SO what? in my eyes PS3 beat 360 in december according to the figures we got

in my eyes PS3 didn't cross 1 million in both weeks according to the data we got

 

I might be confusing you with Munkeh, but don't you want to take a science degree? If you do, you will soon realise the important of error margins.



NeoMatrix on 14 January 2010
ioi said:

The SCEA statement has been posted 3 times now :-p

I'm a little sceptical about some of these figures - the Wii/DS stuff seems way higher than we've seen - not saying who is right or who is wrong but remember that NPD get zero data for Walmart / TRU (which make up over 1/3 of the market at this time of year) so there is a lot of educated guesswork going on here. They can probably account for about 2.3m Wiis or something according to their direct data and are estimating for the stores they miss - 3.8m seems insanely high, especially with Nintendo saying according to internal data they had done "over 3m" for December - surely if they were seeing figures that high they'd have gone with "nearly 4m" or at least "over 3.5m". They specifically said that sales had beat the previous record for a home console (PS2 on 2.7m according to NPD) but didn't mention about it beating last year's 3.04m DS record - I do find the 3.8m figure pretty hard to take seriously - I initially thought we were going to be high with 3m until Nintendo put out their press release.

As for 360 / PS3 - again data is probably good to +/-10% so I'd certainly be reluctant to say one console beat the other based on this data.

But yeah, interesting month - sure there will be discussions about this data for a while...

Could you collaborate more on this - http://www.npd.com/corpServlet?nextpage=consumer-tracking-walmart-sams_s.html ?



NJ5 on 14 January 2010

Quick Nintendo, launch the Wii HD!



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

BoneyBoy on 14 January 2010
libellule said:
Euphoria14 said:
BoneyBoy said:
Hyruken said:
Simply amazing numbers by Nintendo and PS3 deserves their numbers for sure. They had a load of great games out recently.

I wonder how Microsoft will react to being last in all regions. No wonder we did not hear from them today ;)

So how were the numbers year over year?

Microsoft has profited for 2 straight years with their xbox division.

They are simply trying to make some profit.

Sony and the ps3 has NEVER made 1 yen of profit in 3 years.

Microsoft isn't worried about losing by 50k after sony's huge price cut, huge marketing campaig, and redesigned console.

 

50k in only 1 region. They are losing by much more than that Worldwide.

Noting how he said "in all regions".

MS have made money during 24 months, really ?

Yes, REALLY!

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/xbox-division-posts-second-straight-profitable-year/

Xbox Division Posts Second Straight Profitable Year

While Sony Computer Entertainment continues to struggle with the balance between pricing on PS3 and profitability for the group as a whole, Microsoft's Xbox business seems to be in fine shape.



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donathos on 14 January 2010

I find the "tie" thing kinda silly.

Sure, precise numbers "exist," but nobody is in a position to know them. Yes, NPD's calculations have some sort of inherent margin of error, though I doubt that there's any precision to calculating that, either (and it doesn't seem like anyone here knows exactly what their stated margin of error is, anyways, if they even release such a thing).

Regardless, NPD releases its numbers according to whatever metric they have, and one console having a higher number than another according to that metric is "winning" in this context, for whatever that's worth, even if it was by one unit.

In other words, NPD doesn't release a "range" of numbers--their baseline multiplied by their margin of error, up and down--but if they did, the PS3 range would be better than the 360 range for December. Since that's as accurate as anyone seemingly can get, that's enough to have "won" December. It's not a tie--a tie would be having the same number as released by NPD, though again the unknowable "reality" of sales for either console would exist along some range. Instead, it's a "victory."

Whether that "victory" means anything is another discussion.



letsdance on 14 January 2010
ioi said:
letsdance said:
and their formula produced ps3 > 360.

if the info they were provided didn't show the ps3 out pacing the 360 then it wouldn't show up in that way in the final number.

Of course but the point being made is that NPD's estimates don't equal fact. So you can't categorically come to a conclusion based purely on NPD data, especially when two data points are so close.

It's not a difficult concept to understand...


and it aint a dificult concept to understand that the numbers still point ps3 > 360.

jarrod on 14 January 2010
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:

what circumstances, some sites were predicting 400k for the PSP this month, many people were saying it wasnt selling at all in their stores. The PSP has lost tons of momemtums coming to December, that number is fine.

The number's terrible and so is the continual downward spiral considering the platform saw arguably it's best software lineup since 2005 and a platform refresh with GO.  Sony's huge PSP push this year has been a complete bust, hardware's still sliding and software's abysmal.  I'm not sure what they need to do, or what they can do even, but if they don't do something they'll have a dead platform this time next year.

It's fine. And it's already next year, it's still fine.

All it needs is a price drop and consistant game release.

How can software get more consistent than this year?  Especially when nearly everything this year bombed?

I'm sorry, I think we're heading towards the point of no return here.  Sony got all the big publishers to line up with core oriented games (PSP had a better 3rd party lineup that Wii even this fall), they focused on a comprehensive digital library, they released a premium digital-only refresh and all it still failed.  I'm not sure what they should do, games certainly didn't work, digital didn't work.  Massive pricedrops might work, but then what are they going to prop up those PS3 losses with?

I'm starting to think we're going to see PSP2 sooner than anticipated...

Replace all you have said, put PS3 in there, and it's 2008 over again. I have seen this before, i have heard the cry for Sony to kill the PS3, it's still hearand doing great. The PSP  needs software and a price cut. That's all.

You're over-generalising.  PS3 was never in the sort of software sales malaise that PSP finds itself in in America now.

PSP has software.  It didn't matter, sales are even worse than last year when it didn't have software.  It's a dead platform walking...

 



theprof00 on 14 January 2010
tombi123 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
tombi123 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Kasz216 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
 

you can keep going on about statistics, I have made my position clear to you already.

Which is apparently that you want to be willfully ignorant because it means something good for Sony.

Which as a position isn't the strongest one to have.

Once again chill out & don't give yourself too much stress over this. I will continue to claim PS3 won December against 360, you can say it was a "statistical tie" for all of eternity if you wish.

The difference is, Kasz is right. 

I have already put my point forward & he has put his point forward, and I completely disagree with him.

Its not a matter of opinion, its a matter of fact. 

If NPD had chosen a different set of data points (but the same number of data points) for December (say tracking Toys R Us instead of Gamestop for example), NPD could have easily had the 360 at 1.36M and the PS3 at 1.31M.

that's not the standard error though, that's the sampling error. Does anyone know what the sampling error is?



psrock on 14 January 2010
BoneyBoy said:
libellule said:
Euphoria14 said:
BoneyBoy said:
Hyruken said:
Simply amazing numbers by Nintendo and PS3 deserves their numbers for sure. They had a load of great games out recently.

I wonder how Microsoft will react to being last in all regions. No wonder we did not hear from them today ;)

So how were the numbers year over year?

Microsoft has profited for 2 straight years with their xbox division.

They are simply trying to make some profit.

Sony and the ps3 has NEVER made 1 yen of profit in 3 years.

Microsoft isn't worried about losing by 50k after sony's huge price cut, huge marketing campaig, and redesigned console.

 

50k in only 1 region. They are losing by much more than that Worldwide.

Noting how he said "in all regions".

MS have made money during 24 months, really ?

Yes, REALLY!

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/xbox-division-posts-second-straight-profitable-year/

Xbox Division Posts Second Straight Profitable Year

While Sony Computer Entertainment continues to struggle with the balance between pricing on PS3 and profitability for the group as a whole, Microsoft's Xbox business seems to be in fine shape.

There is no such thing as Xbox Division.



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