Here is the problem as I see it ... Rock Band was a highly hyped, high quality game that had massive cross-over appeal between (so-called) "Casual" gamers and "Core" gamers and was amazingly successful; and yet it sold an order of magnitude less units than people are expecting from Natal.

There is no doubt in my mind that given enough time (a couple of months) Microsoft will be able to sell 1 or 2 Million Natal-Systems to people who own XBox 360s if it is a reasonable price and they have a couple of games people are interested in playing. The problem comes in getting people to buy an XBox 360 and Natal, especially if they already own an existing console. Basically, getting people to spend $400+ at launch is pretty easy because early-adopter types will spend a ton of money to have the latest and greatest technology; but 4 years down the road when all early adopters have already bought in, expecting anyone to get (super) excited about spending $400 seems unrealistic.

The problem is that Natal is just a peripheral. There will be a lot of games which support it but very few of them will actually require it (practically all of them made by MS during first year). And most games will work better without Natal even if they support it (just like with PS3 games supporting sixaxis). For example Fable 3 will probably only use Natal with 1-2 features and you can play it just as well without it and Halo: Reach most likely won't support Natal at all. Most 360 owners don't ever need to buy Natal because only very few games will ever require it because most developers want to sell games to everyone. Even to them who don't have Natal. Just think about Balance Board. Only Nintendo supports BB exclusively, even skating and snowboarding games on Wii don't require BB. Even current install base of BB is not enough according to third-party developers.

To be huge, Natal requires huge games. People buy controller for games, without good games controller won't sell much. Games sells controllers, controller without games is nothing in the eyes of consumer. Even many Wii consoles were bought for Wii Sports, not wiimote as many believe. Heck, without Wii Sports Wii could have been total failure.

^^I know right. It is a shame MS isn't making any games for it

Im confused as to how they're planning to market it. Casual gamers aren't going to add a 360 to their Wii setup just for motion controls. In fact, most won't understand the difference. Natal needs to be marketed to their current userbase in order to stabilize it and make it successful. Banking on bringing in the casual crowd can make Natal go down in flames.

The statements of Greenberg are a clear indicator of how strongly M$ is going to push Natal...I fully suspect that they will reach these numbers.

"lol, pokemon had no hype??? It is arguably the most watched anime in the world. Maybe you didn't hype about it, but millions of kids have.



let's face it, how many people are still playing Wiifit after first month?


compare GTAIV with the above 2 games is not fair, GTAIV sold very well."


What are you talking about? The Pokemon anime came AFTER the sucess of the games Red and Blue, not before, duh.

You make terrible points.

1 - it is not an add-on its a console relaunch

2 - Lie

3 - wait for E3

1 Whatevet MS marketing may say, Natal is obviously a relaunch.

2 Really? that skateboard scanning thing too? I don't think so...

That dude in the OP.................

.................

...has no swag...

It is just one type of game in one genre which has even more expensive peripherals than Natal. You can't use that guitar for more than just air guitar without the game itself and the game cost in excess of $100 I believe for the full experience of a single peripheral and game disc. Wouldn't a closer parellel be with Wii Play, Wii Sports Resort or Wii Fit in that all three are bundled with hardware of some destription that can be used for more than the games offered and are similar in capability in many respects to Natal?