doubt it.

Many of us were counting on Wii taking 2009, assuming that it'd sell like 2008. The Wii dropped hard in 2009 between Q2 and Q3, add to this the $100 PS3 cut / redesign, and any new gains the Wii has made from its price cut / NSMB Wii were nullified.

So, we're back an even larger gap than we were at in the beginning of 2008. Not only that, but the PS3 is guaranteed a strong start (going off Slim / $100 cut / GT5), while the 360 will see a strong finish (Halo Reach / Natal / price cut). To reach 50% this year, the Wii will need to see a year as strong as 2008, or the both the PS3 and 360 will need to see moderate declines.

It isn't happening this year, though I do think it's manageable before the end of the gen.

No. If anything PS3 will have a 50% market share by the end of 2010.




Just kidding...on the second part.

I doubt it will hit 50% this year, but does it really matter anymore? It's about as important as whether the PS3 sold 1 mil or 960k.

I don't think so. MS and Sony have demonstrated that they don't care about profits at all as long as they can secure more marketshare.

As for Nintendo... I'm not sure if they care about marketshare at all. They want to move good units and make good margins on those units, but I'm not sure they care how their products sell relative to their competition.

MarketShare = Profits.... Dahhh !

And I dont know about you guys but... a New Zelda... Mario galaxy 2... and if the vitality sensor come with something valuable... we might see it .. otherwise... i think it'll stay the same as it is

with the big 1st party releases coming this year like galaxy 2, Metroid Other M, and Zelda Wii.. the nintendo all stars in 1 years? it might have a shot.. thats right i said it lol

I don't think it will and honestly it's not that important. If the Wii does ever crack 50% it's only going to be just ,so it's not going to have any real impact on the generation other than some additional bragging rights.

This issue first seemed to come to the fore when it became apparent that despite stellar sales many developers were creating for the PS3 and 360 in tandem rather than the Wii. People made the suggestion that if the Wii cracked the 50% it might cause a shift in development. This may have happened if the Wii had passed the 50% barrier early in the generation and kept rising after that but that is all but impossible at this stage.

If Nintendo can put Wii's sales up year over year, and PS3/360 both decline (likely for 360, unlikely for PS3)

Unlikely, which will be odd. First generation where the winner didn't at least have the majority.

It was guaranteed to do it by 2008 and also by 2009 so; no, no it won't and I don't see that it ever will either.