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Forums - Sales - Official I was wrong about SMG in Japan thread

I didn't make any predictions, I didn't give too much thought as to what it would sell, but I did think it would sell very well. I still think it will, I'm sure it will have very good legs and will sell well into the millions in Japan.

The thing I don't really understand is what the Japanese are playing. They buy a lot of Wii consoles but not that many games. It makes no real sense to me. I thought they were just waiting to snap up a big title game when it came out but that doesn't appear to be the case.



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@Rol
Me too. I really suck; I predicted GHIII sales:
Wii>Xbox360>PS2>PS3
:)



i was wrong too, i predicted so much more than it sold



Ok we know

WE WERE ALL WRONg

but the game is damn awesome....



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My prediction for YEARS END:

WII - 18.3 Million

Xbox 360 - 15 Million

Playstation 3 - 8.5 Million

Wow, the Japanese market is in a haze. Can't recognize good games.

Im sure it will have great legs much like Hot Shots Golf 5 for PS3. Been in the top 50 since it's release.

It can still hit 1 mil in Japan.



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I think if we had studied more into the Japanese market for the last couple of months I think most of our guesses for the start of the game would have been at least under 500k for the most part. Cause really looking deep into the recent trends this is quite expected. If sales of other games across the board and hardware are cut by almost 50% wouldn't you expect the sales of even a new release to be affected.

But I'm not making an excuse but I think we all went off of what would have happened in normal conditions. Something we could have never forseen. Well I kinda new that the Japanese market would sooner or later hit a point of diminishing returns for a certain point of time but didn't think this year.

But I was off. Think I guessed 700k.



I haven't seen the numbers yet. What was it in the end?



I was *very* wrong. Off by about 50% - expecting 500k, and 80k Wii sales.

Still hopeful for the future... Galaxy seems to be raking in the good scores, the 2nd WORST score it has received so far is 95%. Definitely on track for GOTY IMO...

One theory...:

I always thought that the poor sales of Sunshine ("weak" launch - although better than Galaxy! And no legs...) was due to the setting. Maybe not - maybe its just "complex 3D" games - they just don't sell that well in Japan.

Zelda did the same. Galaxy did the same - as did Halo (etc...).

The challenge for Ninty is to convince consumers that Galaxy is a casual game - rather than a difficult, hardcore one?

(even Mario64 didn't sell *that* well in Japan...)



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Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Even you know shams that the bad scores from Galaxy come later, it hit bioshock and halo 3, with halo 3 getting hit hard

I was hoping for more 100s by now, hopefully some of the later reviews do just that or we looking at 93-96 average



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

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Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.

its raining its pouring



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