i dont think the wii vitality will sell at all its so stupid. it probably wont sell a million units.

yeah your probably right, curses

Ok well I tried to calculate monthly sales based on momentum, generation declines and key launches that I am aware of and a few predictions on possible price cuts etc. With those numbers come these:

Wii:

18.1 Million

PS3:

12.3 Million

XBOX 360:

9.55 Million

Nintendo DS:

24.7 Million

PSP:

6.75 Million

I feel I may be a touch high on DS and a touch low on 360 but there are too many unknowns so I'm going with these predictions.

Even if we do not know all the games for 2010 or even none for the Wii, I would go pretty much agree with your estimates (I only see the Wii even higher). I think NSMB, WSR and Wii Fit Plus will carry the Wii for quite a while, meaning Q1-2 will be up. Q3 will be up as well, because Q309 was very low. We will have to see for Q4 2010, but with games like Zelda and Metroid it is possible to equal 2009´s numbers there. I think the PS3 can keep up its momentum as well, therefore closing the gap between the PS3 and x360 further.

Wii: 24mil

PS3: 13mil

X360: 10mil

  It'll still have NSMB Wii next year, and Wii motion plus and the lower price and will have the vitality sensor and a lot of new games next year, so what is your point?  All the factors that boosted sales in the end of the year in 2009 will still be in effect in 2010, heck NSMB Wii will probably sell more in 2010 than it did in 2009.

What evidence do you have that it will take a five million plunge when nothing historically supports your view?

I have already shown why your prediction is silly, because it has no basis or support, you'll have to show some reason why it'll fall 5 million, more than 20%, this year.

That's what they said about Wii fit

It will fall because, like I already pointed out, it did last year despite Nintendo's very best efforts to prevent it. They shaved of 20% of the price and launched all their killer apps to no avail and even though NSMBWii boosted the sales it didn't properly kick in and pull the record number until the very last week before christmas and you seriously can't expect one game alone to keep the sales fueled for months and months on end in the slow parts of the year while we get news and confirmation from key 3rd party developers weekly that they're either pulling or decreasing support. Nintendo themselves had to lower their fiscal projection by quite a bit and will still probably fail to meet it at this rate, another telltale sign that they bit off more than they could chew when they assumed they'd keep on having record selling years (they were becoming every bit as arrogant as the competition, thinking one first party title now and then would satisfy the thirsty market in the long run).

With games like Call of Duty: Reflex and Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles selling less than stellar, more developers will start doing a Capcom, or a Sega if you will and say "No way Jose, this won't work." and that does not bode well even for a market leader that has broken records this gen. The sales of Wii Fit Pluss, that also held the most eagerly anticipated peripheral since the board itself moved only half Wii Fit's numbers first week worldwide and has consistently sold a lot less than the first one despite the higher installed base and the market already being cracked open, in the same turn going against the age old truth that sequels generally sell more. Things are slowing down, there is no denying it, the Blue Ocean is a hostile place unless you ripple the waves every now and then and many of the trumph cards turned sour last year (Animal Crossing, Motion Pluss, Wii Fit Pluss, Colors and price cut to name a few) and proved unable to not only increase hardware sales but prevent them from dropping significantly. The Wii beat its own 1st quarter from 2008 in 09 which goes to show just how much of an impact the last two quarters had when it not only managed to lose that head start on its own numbers but even went down yoy by 2 million or so.

Now, would you please tell why your predictions hold more merit? Especially when viewed in context with your own predictions that keep crashing hard, I don't think anyone in here holds your credibility over mine and wishful thinking alone can't make a difference no matter how much you want it to. I don't mind you calling me a moron or thinking my predictions are silly but I do mind when you claim to have such insight and manage to fall into pit after pit, failing to predict a single thing even halfway right and then start pointing fingers at those who disagree on the grounds that "lol, they're silly."

Except Nintendo's best efforts borught it up year on year for December, so your argument is flawed mummel.

Wii is entering 2010 with a strong surge of momentum and will not only have the continued push from NSMB Wii but also the lineup this year including the vitality sensor, so like I said your argument is flawed.

Why do my arguments hold more weight simple, first off I'm going off history, nothing shows a drop from 22 million to 17 million is possible, especially when momentum is growing, not shrinking for a console.

Now you have to show why I should hld any weight on your arguments, when they are so badly flawed, it doesn't matter if it took until the end of the year to do so, the fact is, its back up year on year for the month of December, NSMB Wii shows no signs of dying off, and its lineup in 2010 looks far stronger, with the presence of Wii vitality sensor

The extreme momentum Sports Resort, Wii Motion +, Wii Fit +, colors and price cut was going to yield didn't happen. NSMBWii helped it a lot in December but all the other factors did little to nothing in september, october and november. The immense 3rd party support that was sure to arrive has also failed to show and the opposite is happening now, its all going backwards. I made a pretty good case in my last post and don't feel the need to repeat myself, especially since I know that you and I will never agree on anything.

Time will show, we've both been wrong before and I don't mind that you find my predictions silly at all, just don't pretend that yours are any better.

Wii - 16-18 mln.
PS3 - 16-18 mln.
x360 - 7-8 mln.