Avinash_Tyagi said:
What evidence do you have that it will take a five million plunge when nothing historically supports your view? I have already shown why your prediction is silly, because it has no basis or support, you'll have to show some reason why it'll fall 5 million, more than 20%, this year. |
It will fall because, like I already pointed out, it did last year despite Nintendo's very best efforts to prevent it. They shaved of 20% of the price and launched all their killer apps to no avail and even though NSMBWii boosted the sales it didn't properly kick in and pull the record number until the very last week before christmas and you seriously can't expect one game alone to keep the sales fueled for months and months on end in the slow parts of the year while we get news and confirmation from key 3rd party developers weekly that they're either pulling or decreasing support. Nintendo themselves had to lower their fiscal projection by quite a bit and will still probably fail to meet it at this rate, another telltale sign that they bit off more than they could chew when they assumed they'd keep on having record selling years (they were becoming every bit as arrogant as the competition, thinking one first party title now and then would satisfy the thirsty market in the long run).
With games like Call of Duty: Reflex and Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles selling less than stellar, more developers will start doing a Capcom, or a Sega if you will and say "No way Jose, this won't work." and that does not bode well even for a market leader that has broken records this gen. The sales of Wii Fit Pluss, that also held the most eagerly anticipated peripheral since the board itself moved only half Wii Fit's numbers first week worldwide and has consistently sold a lot less than the first one despite the higher installed base and the market already being cracked open, in the same turn going against the age old truth that sequels generally sell more. Things are slowing down, there is no denying it, the Blue Ocean is a hostile place unless you ripple the waves every now and then and many of the trumph cards turned sour last year (Animal Crossing, Motion Pluss, Wii Fit Pluss, Colors and price cut to name a few) and proved unable to not only increase hardware sales but prevent them from dropping significantly. The Wii beat its own 1st quarter from 2008 in 09 which goes to show just how much of an impact the last two quarters had when it not only managed to lose that head start on its own numbers but even went down yoy by 2 million or so.
Now, would you please tell why your predictions hold more merit? Especially when viewed in context with your own predictions that keep crashing hard, I don't think anyone in here holds your credibility over mine and wishful thinking alone can't make a difference no matter how much you want it to. I don't mind you calling me a moron or thinking my predictions are silly but I do mind when you claim to have such insight and manage to fall into pit after pit, failing to predict a single thing even halfway right and then start pointing fingers at those who disagree on the grounds that "lol, they're silly."
