predict the sales of the wii, ps3 and x360 this year.

[Dampfi]

c0rd said:

I'll throw some quick guesses I suppose. Tough when we have so little info to go by, but here goes:

Wii - 21.5mil
No doubt the Wii had its best December this year, but it had a horrific Q2-Q3. From the beginning of April to the end of September, it sold only slightly more than 5mil, or ~210k/wk (in 2008 it did over 9mil). I expect the Wii to be nearly flat in Q1, but up significantly Q2-Q3 on the strength of 09's evergreens, $200 price point, and 2010's new releases. It'll be down in Q4, but with help from Wii Vitality / Zelda, it will manage to maintain its sales lead YoY.

X360 - 10.5mil
The 360 will perform worse than its 2009 during most of the year, but will shine in the final quarter (similar to 2008). With Natal, a potential price cut, and Halo Reach, its Q4 will be monstrous, over 5 million total. It will finish the year in a stronger position than the PS3 for early 2011, slowly reclaiming the ground it lost in early 2010.

PS3 - 11.5mil
The PS3 will have a very strong lead early next year, on the strength of the recent "Slim," $100 price cut, and the releases of GT5 / God of War 3. All of this combined may cut the 360 lead down to as little as 3mil, as it'll be up YoY as high as 30% until September. From late Q3 on, the PS3 will start to see major YoY losses, particularly in Americas/Japan, due to lack of a price cut and stronger 360 sales.

Even if we do not know all the games for 2010 or even none for the Wii, I would go pretty much agree with your estimates (I only see the Wii even higher). I think NSMB, WSR and Wii Fit Plus will carry the Wii for quite a while, meaning Q1-2 will be up. Q3 will be up as well, because Q309 was very low. We will have to see for Q4 2010, but with games like Zelda and Metroid it is possible to equal 2009´s numbers there. I think the PS3 can keep up its momentum as well, therefore closing the gap between the PS3 and x360 further.

Wii: 24mil

PS3: 13mil

X360: 10mil