I already stated it as such... many many posts ago.  When I said it currently looks like a giant wash.  Also I don't believe you can call is subsidized when it makes a profit.

For it to not be a wash, things need to turn around. Blu-ray has won the format war, but at present it may be a Pyrrhic victory.  It's moving to slowley and has to worry about profits being eaten away from too many players right now.  It would of been better off having a lisensing structure like HD-DVD from the start.  It still wouldn't of reached DVD levels, but HD-DVD would of went down much faster and China wouldn't of went rogue.  China went rogue BECAUSE Blu-ray won the format war.

Also, while China is a totalitarian state... it is not so when it comes to consumer goods.  To think so is to not understand the Chinese market.

China keeps control of it's people by force, but also by promising them stability and prosperity.  They aren't your average dictatorship.

Foreign goods selll extremely well vs Chinese products.  The Chinese as consumers are much less brand sensitive and price senesitive then your average consumer... it's actually what makes the Blu-ray losses so distrubting.

CBHD is subsidized by the government. The help take some of the initial price off of the players. The players are in fact quite expensive. (almost 300$) Secondly, the reason why CBHD is doing so well is because the average price of discs is 5-7$, compared to 30$ for BR. So while BR players are nearing 100$, you get more movies over time with CBHD. It's just like the VHS format war. The media is rock bottom price.

You also have to look at it this way. You said China said "no DVD style royalties" and BR increased the royalties. At this point you have two outcomes. You can drop the BR royalties from 30 to sub-10 or keep it at thirty and make the same amount of money in one year that you make in 3 with lower pricing.

You make it seem like China would have never done CBHD if BR royalties were cheaper. I don't think that is true at all. China was always going for this format. It's been in development since HDDVD died.

Personally, I think BDA knew this would happen and so made as much profit out of it as they could. There was probably never a chance to hold the Chinese market when the DVD forum is willing to receive no royalty for the product.

It's been in development since HD-DVD died.  That's exactly what I said?  Wasn't it.

I don't get this punctuation or idea at all. I never said you said that.

Had HD-DVD won... China wouldn't have done the same thing, even if Sony had offered.

That's because CBHD is HDDVD, sponsored and developed and backed by the same people. Warner, Universal, Toshiba, DVD Forum. If HDDVD won, then CBHD would never be developed, because it basically is HDDVD.

HD-DVD royalties were actually dirt cheap.  $12 vs the $30 of Blu-ray.

Had the BR royalties been lower... they wouldn't have done it.

No proof. CBHD IS HDDVD in a different package. HDDVD didn't even make it in China at 12$

If Sony had offered to liscense Blu-ray Technology.

Also CBHD and HD-DVD aren't the same thing.

As for HD-DVD making it in China... you still are under the conclusion that the government decides what will and won't suceed.  It doesn't.

It's quite simple actually.  The talk of a domestic product was because many chinese buisnesses actually took a loss making DVD players and didn't post profits until recently.

As in... when it was $12 a piece.

This was a clear indication that they wouldn't accept more.  Why would they when they were going to take a loss?  At $12 they would of been making profit.

from wikipedia, but still..

"Originally called CH-DVD, CBHD is a joint venture between the DVD Forum and OMNERC. Development began in 2005, and an early prototype was demonstrated in 2007.^[1] In 2008 during the DVD Forum's 42nd Steering Committee Meeting the DVD Forum gave OMNERC the ability to edit HD DVD specifications

While originally based upon the DVD Forum's HD DVD format, there are several differences between the two formats. CBHD uses China's AVS video codec, DRA audio codec, and a new copy protection system, DKAA, as an alternative to HD DVD's and Blu-ray's AACS.^[2][3][4][5] CBHD's developers claim the format contains more copy protection features and is part of a big push by China to fight piracy as well as cut down on royalty payments for foreign patents.^[6]

CBHD also eschews HD DVD's Advanced Content content navigation system in favor of a Chinese system called CETC.^[2]

Like HD DVD, CBHD discs have a capacity of 15GB single-layer and 30GB dual-layer and can use existing DVD production lines"

And?  The deal was made in place, if HD-DVD didn't win... because of Blu-rays ridiculious pricing structure.

And if CBHD doesn't win, there will be another, and another, and another. It doesn't end.

That doesn't actually change anything.  Had Blu-ray agreed like HD-DVD did, for small royalties, this wouldn't of happened.  Or are you suggesting if HD-DVD won CBHD would of still existed?

I don't know where you are getting this assertion. I'm not suggesting that at all, but I am suggesting that CBHD would exist even if BR caved in and lowered royalty price. I already said that you have no proof that CBHD wouldn't have been pushed to market. It was in production for a while. CBHD, contrary to what I said earlier, but in line with the facts, was being developed before HDDVD's death. Why would they abandon all the work and effort. It makes no sense. CBHD would have come out even if BDA dropped price. HDDVD was always going to lose, and CBHD would take its place. In between these two products was S-DVD, a dvd upscaler from toshiba and dvd forum. All this format war ever is, is BR beating one format, and then dvd forum pushing another competitor under a different name with a slightly different architecture. The product being developed has nothing to do with the royalties, and everything to do with a technology that is trying to be pushed.
The product being supported, on the other hand, is only supported when the founders of said technology are simply trying to recouperate anything they can. Toshiba and DVD forum will settle for a bucket of fish come next format.

That proves my point, not disproves it.  Unless you think Toshiba would of just willingly given up a big market way back in 05.

? No, they wouldn't give it up. They keep pushing it over and over as different formats. They knew they were going to lose HDDVD so they started work on S-DVD and CBHD. If those fail it will just be something else with less profits.

HDDVD was the main draw. That's where the profit was (eventually). Given that they couldn't have that, they settled for less, and less and less.

Either way, the fact that you claim Microsoft was supporting HD-DVD over Blu-ray because of console wars certaintly suggests that Console would be more valuable then movie rights.  (Something i missed you saying earlier.)

MS supported and subsidized HD-DVD for two reasons. Codecs and Confusion. They stood to make more profit if HDDVD won in two ways. Licensing costs, and 360 sales.

Of course it also suggests that apparently PC Labtops are more valuable then Consoles then.  Otherwise Sony would be selling Linux only right?

How does anything suggest that??? What?