PS3 software sales Q4 2009 up til todays date end of 26th Sept to 19th Dec: 39,765,298
PS3 hardware end point: 30,097,783
PS3 software sales Q4 2008 up til 20th Dec 2008 from 27th Sept 2008: 31,690,383
PS3 hardware end point: 18,168,026
PS3 hardware difference: 65.66% increase
PS3 software difference: 25.48% Increase
Peak software comes just after a peak in hardware sales. So overall Playstation 3 software sales will likely peak sometime in 2010 and fall year over year just before the holiday season with overall revenue dropping as Playstation 2, PSP and Playstation 3 hardware sales will all likely drop again year over year as well as the overall software sales for their Playstation family of products as the PSP and PS2 reach the terminal end of their lifecycles. The problem this introduces for Sony is that if SCE loses money for this quarter it will be extremely difficult for them to recoup any losses made on the PS3 slim.
To reach profitability they cannot simply cut the price again as it will unlikely give them the right mix of software and hardware revenue and a price cut may simply delay the overall decline in software revenue by another year. Their best bet is their Gem wand for both increasing hardware revenue and overall software sales for the year in 2010 which will be similar to how Nintendo has kept their overall software sales high this holiday season because of the overall selling power of their Wii Sports Resort software. If they cannot break through with Gem then they would lose all chance of making more than a few mildly profitable quarters which at best means clawing back about a little more than billion dollars worth of losses.
Edit because of Rols request:
Xbox 360 software sales Q4 2009 up til todays date end of 26th Sept to 19th Dec: 47,300,962
360 hardware end point: 35,795,505
360 software sales Q4 2008 up til 20th Dec 2008 from 27th Sept 2008: 48,978,109
360 hardware end point: 25,723,992
360 hardware difference: 39.14% Increase
360 software difference: 3.5% decrease
So essentially the Xbox 360 software differences show that when the hardware rate increase falls to ~33% year over year the sales increase of software stagnates without some extra input.
Wii software sales Q4 2009 up til todays date end of 26th Sept to 19th Dec: 70,406,200
Wii hardware end point: 62,585,048
Wii software sales Q4 2008 up til 20th Dec 2008 from 27th Sept 2008: 66,758,799
Wii hardware end point: 42,016,681
Wii hardware difference: 49% increase
Wii software difference: 5.5%
So what Wii software shows is that you need roughly an increase in hardware of 50% to show an increase of 5% in software sales for this platform at this point in its lifecycle.
If we assume the Playstation 3 follows this model then Sony will need to sell about 15 million consoles for the calendar year to show a similar year over year increase that the Wii platform showed during the q4 holiday season.
i think my point still stands.
Tease.