| Kantor said: I would say no. It managed just over 700k on Black Friday, which is bigger than the week before Christmas, and FF13 in Japan won't give more than a 200k boost in Japan. Now, if it was releasing during Christmas week itself, then almost certainly. |
Black Friday is not bigger than the week before Christmas for worldwide sales. The week before Christmas is the biggest week of the year which is why there is a (very slim in my opinion) chance of the PS3 hitting 1 million. Christmas week sells less because only part of it is good for sales. The 23rd is usually the biggest day of the year, but the 24th is weak and on the 25th it's over for most of the world. Last year's best week was the week ended Dec 20/21.
But some analysis...
Based on last week's numbers, 1 million is a tough proposition:
For Americas, PS3 did 69.8% of 360's 2008 sales for the same week in 2008. That percentage of the 360's Dec 21 week is 367,042.
For Others, last week PS3 did 121.9% of the 360's 2008 sales. That percentage of the 360's Dec 21 week is 405,625.
So, the total expected based on the above would be 772,667 for Americas and Others. That would leave 227,333 required from Japan to hit the goal. Of course, the post-BF week is not a great week to base an analysis on because sales fluctuate pretty wildly around this time.
I might do another of these analyses once this week's VGC numbers come out.
Essay Pro