Well the Japan Preview is in and here is "week 2" Japan sales from that preliminary data:

Japan- 470,000
Range- 423,000-517,000

Either way the range is way ahead of my predictions. So much for them being optimistic... seems like they might have been rather pessimistic.

Going from that, ancedotal sales are suggesting that NSMB Wii continues to be MASSIVE in the US. In my district for Gamestop, the game is selling out with every shipment. I know local wal marts and Best Buys and Targets are sold out. And I believe Toys R US is sold as well. NSMB Wii has asserted itself as the BIGGEST holiday title of the year and damnit Nintendo can't keep up with supply. But it's hard to think that this is due to small shipments but that the demand is larger than anyone could have expected.

Now this is just for my region, but I know there are numerous people around the country suggesting similar things so I'd assume this game is selling well everywhere. So for my "week 2" predictions, it's possible sales of this could be in the higher region and potentially out of the high end of the range. All I know is that Modern Warfare 2 is no longer the biggest game released as New Super Mario Bros Wii has taken that crown.

@zucas

NSMBWii is sold out at bestbuy.com, but available at every single store in my area. At Gamestop, they are sold out online, but there is only 1 store 12 miles away that actually has it. (so like 5 stores sold out in the area).

So while not crazy sold out like Mario Kart Wii or Wii Fit were at their launches, it definitely would take 1-2 store visits to find a copy of the game if you didn't do your research ahead of time.

Over 500,000 week three in Japan, looks like it could beat your high end prediction.

That reminds me....
I picked the game up 3 days ago, and still havent opened it.
Its still in the car...

Bring it back,you don't deserve it ;)

500 + 450 + 450 = 1400 k not 1300k

The game is sold out here, can't find it anywhere! Seems like Nintendo is doing great.

Will it end up passing Modern Warfare 2 on the 360, as Reggie said it would? If so, when?

In WW sales, it will pass it very soon, however, for it to pass MW2 in the US only (NPD numbers) it probably won't by the January NPD. It would have to overcome a 2.4m unit lead over 7 weeks, which would mean need a 340k/week advantage in sales which it doesn't have in the US.

LOL It seems I should've had more faith in your Japan numbers.

Gamt may even exceed 9m Zucas