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Forums - Sales - Japan First Day Sales 12/10 (Tales of Graces and other games)

bardicverse said:
starterman1989 said:
bardicverse said:
woopah said:
I thought over 100k was good .....

No, its only good when its for the PS3 apparently, as ToV launch had shown. If its for the Wii, its a major bomb, despite costing less than half the production costs of the PS3 game. It takes people like Tres to troll the topic and make multiple posts to make sure people see it this way, weren't you aware?

Here's an interesting tidbit - Even if ToG reaches only 250k, it will still be more profitable to have developed than ToV on the HD systems in Japan. Thus, the dev will be more enticed to bring more Tales games to the Wii than the HD systems.

Interesting statement... Any data to back it up? Development cost, maybe? Retailer cut, platform holder royalty, promotion fee, or revenue calculation? Seems like you know quite a bit. *_*

Should we roll out the generic profit map again? Average Wii development is 6.5 mil dollars. Average HD development is 18 mil dollars.

After retailer cut, average $50 game, publisher receives roughly 40, after cost return for manufacturing, advertising, etc, roughly $20 is left for profit.

Depending on the contract, the developer is given money ahead of time to produce the game. When X amount of sales are made, they then take in profit. Generally this number is around 500k units in basic markets. So, until the game hits that agreed upon number, the actual dev doesn't get any royalty money. So, by that, no Tales game has ever provided a royalty to the developer yet.

Backtracking, we have this concept of $20 profit to the publisher per game sold, and an investment of 7 mil to develop a Wii game and 18 mil for a PS3 game.

Current numbers put ToV at 370k roughly. 370x20 =   $7,400,000

Current numbers put ToS at 250k roughly. 250x20 = $5,000,000

Granted, this is a ballpark figure, as both games operate at a loss which no publisher would stand for, but the general ballpark puts ToS closer to its break-even/profit line than ToV does. 

There is a flex point to the development costs, naturally, as party games and non AAA titles tend to run cheaper on all systems. AAA games on Wii can reach 15 mil and PS3 AAA games can escalate to 30-60 mil.

Edit- So, some people are stating 700k for Tov, for WW, where I was specifically talking about Japan here. Yet, do the same math = 700k x20 = $14 mil , still shy of the average production cost/profit margin for a HD game.

This is a lie.

HD games are more expensive at retail, with an average of 60 dollars. Wii games have a lower average, 45 dollars maybe.

The Source posted this yesterday on my thread:

TheSource said:

Super expensive core games will never be made for Wii because publishers only get ~$28 at most back of every $50 a customer spends on a game. You can get like $38 back on a PS3/360 game. So if you sell a million copies on Wii, you get $28 million - $4 million, $24 million. If you sell a million on PS3/360 you get $38 million - $10 million. It is more profitable at the million + level to make PS3/360 games with relatively modest budgets than it is to make Wii games. This allows Nintendo's content to dominate above the 2m unit level, while at 1m-2m its closers to a 50% share, and below that third parties dominate at a 60-70% clip which is enough to make good money, just not blockbuster money.

So it's not how you set it out to be, you are just performing damage control and twisting things so you are not disappointed, and making people believe something that's far from the truth.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

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Majin-Tenshinhan said:
Acevil said:
Soriku said:

ToH sold 140k week one and legged it out to 250k. ToG'll sell more than 140k week one so it'll end up higher than ToH. I was expecting 300kish LTD, it should do that or come really close. People expecting something like 400k or more were setting their hopes up too high. Are bundles counted or not? If not then sales are higher.

lol at tres, trolling as usual. Of course they'll make a new Wii Tales if they continue to do new DS Tales. They'll make a new HD one too.

Seriously the non-tales fans expected more than Tales fan...kinda sad right soriku. Also that one guy provided a decent chart, which I believe this one will also follow.

That seems to almost always be the way it is. The haters always expect more than the actual fans and then yell flop when it doesn't reach their unrealistic expectations. Also, everyone always yells flop way too early... But I've said that about 10 times already in this thread

But most of you, even soriku, expected it to perform at least 200k FW. Actually most expected it to beat Vesperia's FW since Team Destiny were involved. It didnt even perform better than a tales spinoff. Nobody said it flopped, but it kinda didnt live up to expectations. However its still first day sales so nothing can be said as of yet until we get 2nd and 3rd week numbers, which could change everything.

PS: i'm not a hater :P



^
I think it would help both sides if we know the sell through %. maybe it was never shipped 200K.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

trestres said:
bardicverse said:
starterman1989 said:
bardicverse said:
woopah said:
I thought over 100k was good .....

No, its only good when its for the PS3 apparently, as ToV launch had shown. If its for the Wii, its a major bomb, despite costing less than half the production costs of the PS3 game. It takes people like Tres to troll the topic and make multiple posts to make sure people see it this way, weren't you aware?

Here's an interesting tidbit - Even if ToG reaches only 250k, it will still be more profitable to have developed than ToV on the HD systems in Japan. Thus, the dev will be more enticed to bring more Tales games to the Wii than the HD systems.

Interesting statement... Any data to back it up? Development cost, maybe? Retailer cut, platform holder royalty, promotion fee, or revenue calculation? Seems like you know quite a bit. *_*

Should we roll out the generic profit map again? Average Wii development is 6.5 mil dollars. Average HD development is 18 mil dollars.

After retailer cut, average $50 game, publisher receives roughly 40, after cost return for manufacturing, advertising, etc, roughly $20 is left for profit.

Depending on the contract, the developer is given money ahead of time to produce the game. When X amount of sales are made, they then take in profit. Generally this number is around 500k units in basic markets. So, until the game hits that agreed upon number, the actual dev doesn't get any royalty money. So, by that, no Tales game has ever provided a royalty to the developer yet.

Backtracking, we have this concept of $20 profit to the publisher per game sold, and an investment of 7 mil to develop a Wii game and 18 mil for a PS3 game.

Current numbers put ToV at 370k roughly. 370x20 =   $7,400,000

Current numbers put ToS at 250k roughly. 250x20 = $5,000,000

Granted, this is a ballpark figure, as both games operate at a loss which no publisher would stand for, but the general ballpark puts ToS closer to its break-even/profit line than ToV does. 

There is a flex point to the development costs, naturally, as party games and non AAA titles tend to run cheaper on all systems. AAA games on Wii can reach 15 mil and PS3 AAA games can escalate to 30-60 mil.

Edit- So, some people are stating 700k for Tov, for WW, where I was specifically talking about Japan here. Yet, do the same math = 700k x20 = $14 mil , still shy of the average production cost/profit margin for a HD game.

This is a lie.

HD games are more expensive at retail, with an average of 60 dollars. Wii games have a lower average, 45 dollars maybe.

The Source posted this yesterday on my thread:

TheSource said:

Super expensive core games will never be made for Wii because publishers only get ~$28 at most back of every $50 a customer spends on a game. You can get like $38 back on a PS3/360 game. So if you sell a million copies on Wii, you get $28 million - $4 million, $24 million. If you sell a million on PS3/360 you get $38 million - $10 million. It is more profitable at the million + level to make PS3/360 games with relatively modest budgets than it is to make Wii games. This allows Nintendo's content to dominate above the 2m unit level, while at 1m-2m its closers to a 50% share, and below that third parties dominate at a 60-70% clip which is enough to make good money, just not blockbuster money.

So it's not how you set it out to be, you are just performing damage control and twisting things so you are not disappointed, and making people believe something that's far from the truth.

 

Well said Trestres, i think most people think they know how the video game market works when its far from the truth. I think there is a reason why PS3/360 are getting more blockbuster games than the Wii, and i think that wont change anytime soon



Tres - Not all PS3 games are 60, only a few AAA are, which cost more into the 30 mil range to develop. As for Wii games, most sell for 50 as well. $50 is the average for all games, cross platform. Don't believe me? Go to your retailers nearby and have a look at the shelf price.

You really should just shut your mouth instead of trying to accuse people when you don't have any idea what you're talking about. I've worked in the industry since 98, dealt with people on many different levels and have attended industry conferences focused on the business perspective side of things for years now.

Check the numbers, they don't lie. You should really read up on how percentages of a game sale are broken up.

People around here are getting sick of your crap. Shape up or shut up.



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bardicverse said:
Tres - Not all PS3 games are 60, only a few AAA are, which cost more into the 30 mil range to develop. As for Wii games, most sell for 50 as well. $50 is the average for all games, cross platform. Don't believe me? Go to your retailers nearby and have a look at the shelf price.

You really should just shut your mouth instead of trying to accuse people when you don't have any idea what you're talking about. I've worked in the industry since 98, dealt with people on many different levels and have attended industry conferences focused on the business perspective side of things for years now.

Check the numbers, they don't lie. You should really read up on how percentages of a game sale are broken up.

People around here are getting sick of your crap. Shape up or shut up.

Who accused who? You accused me of trolling and justified it by lying. The average Wii game is not 50$, you are outright lying there. The average HD game is 10$~ more expensive than a Wii game, therefore the revenue a publisher gets back is around 10$ more.

Also, Nintendo takes a bigger chunk of the money for every copy sold than Sony or MS do. You know you are not spelling the truth, that's why you resort to insults and twist things. I'm very disappointed, I expected better from a guy who works in the industry.

Unfortunately, I won't shut up.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

wow you guys are brutal towards trestres!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:
wow you guys are brutal towards trestres!

Indeed.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

trestres said:
darthdevidem01 said:
wow you guys are brutal towards trestres!

Indeed.

I dunno what you said that was so bad....its not different than what I or many other people said here about TOG sales, they should stop targetting you

 



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

No spinning around this guys. A late port outsold it by ~2x. This should have sold much more... It may still sell adequately, but frankly, I highly doubt it. My bet - 150 FW, 250Lifetime