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Forums - Sales - My 2010 Projections For PS360 Total HW Sold...Gap May Be Reduced Massively!

binary solo on 10 December 2009

I'm not going to contradict anything BHR-3 claims with respect to PS3 sales. It only leads to embarassment.

360: BHR-3 has left somewhat open, which is both smart and telling. Though he's put a 10 million line in the sand. It seems like a reasonable number with the caveat that Natal is a significant potential confounding variable that could bump 360's numbers by a considerable amount. The gap between PS3's low end and 360's high end is a bit much for Natal alone to obliterate. But what could a triple combo of actions from MS?



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

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Serious_frusting on 10 December 2009

BHR i know say your my boy and that but unlike all these people i wont just blindly agree with your numbers. Just let me do some research of me own and then i will post my opinions in this thread.

though i must say your OP is very good and i can not pick a fault. I just like to research myself as well



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Taz! on 10 December 2009
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

Thats a scary thing for Sony as well :)



jarrod on 10 December 2009
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).



Taz! on 10 December 2009

I can see a $225-$250 PS3 vs Natal. Will be interesting



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Carl on 10 December 2009

A $200 PS3 is out of the question next year.

A $250 PS3 on the other hand... Could make an appearence.

If we see a $50 cut on PS3 late next year, in line with GT5... Natal/Cut/Anything will be combatted.



                            

jarrod on 10 December 2009

I'm more expecting...

$299 PS3 (with Swand/game bundled)

$199 360 Elite (with 2 games bundled)
$299 360 Elite (with Natal/game bundled)

$199 Wii (with NSMBW bundled)


...everyone's looking at profitability here on out. Sony's already made their big drop move, I don't think they'll repeat it next year (nor can they afford to). Microsoft hasn't buckled to pressure yet, and I think they're banking on Natal anyway. Without pressure to drop coming from the competition, Nintendo won't either.



psrock on 10 December 2009
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

I have heard this song before, but each year the ps3 cost less to make and i expect an even cheaper version late next year. $299 is still quite expensive for 4 year old console.

Yes, I am predicted an even slimmer version late next year with 250 gb for $200 dollars.



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Vetteman94 on 10 December 2009
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

One thing alot of people seem to be confusing is, when they say profitability 2010,  they mean the entire PS division,  which includes PS2, PSP and software sales for all 3 consoles.    And they will easily reach that.  



Carl on 10 December 2009
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

I have heard this song before, but each year the ps3 cost less to make and i expect an even cheaper version late next year. $299 is still quite expensive for 4 year old console.

Yes, I am predicted an even slimmer version late next year with 250 gb for $200 dollars.

I've also predicted that, just not next year...

If you notice, Sony theselves have never called it the "PS3 Slim". And lets face it, it's not exactly that slim right now