By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - My FF13 NA prediction.

letsdance on 08 December 2009
kingofwale said:
letsdance said:
morenoingrato said:
the only thing I know is that Ps3 version will outsell 360 by 2:1


It will slighty favor the Ps3. More like 55/45 split. Not 66/34 like you suggest. Thats huge accomplishment since the split for games in NA are usually like 60/40. and to think. People actually said 360 would outsell ps3 WW.

kingofwale - you still arent listening... take up 600k and I'll take you up in a heart beat. I dont need to revise my numbers since I've bben saying < 500 - 600k the whole time.

lol, so... your new 'revised' number of 600K now??? Funny enough, your first post was 286k, that's more than twice as much. ;)


Regardless. I will take that bet, 600K across 2 platforms in NA first week. You will hear from mein 14 weeks


I never revised my number... ever. It's always been "Under FF12." 600k is above FF12.

Think about this wager logically.

Ps3 is having a harder time selling SW then Ps2 had. If this game was 360 exclusive I'd say that would have a harder time selling the game then if it were Ps3 exclusive... but it isn't exclusive. Its split between 2 consoles that aren't going to be able to sell this game as well as Ps2 could have. and yes... combine ps3 exclusive potential to 360 exclusive potential and it would have been better then the Ps2... but only since this is the type of game 360 owners would go to the ps3 and vice versa for. So basically, it doesn't matter if it would be exclusive or multiplat... it will still sell to the same people and still sell as well as the system with the most selling potential... which is still less then the Ps2.

(If this made sense to anyone else then by all means clearify it... its hard to explain)

Actually... I think I can explain better in hard numbers.

Okay... Ps3 exclusives are having a hard time selling the same type of numbers as ps2 exclusives. Especially in NA. So if the Ps2 game sold 600k then lets say the Ps3 game would sell like... 400k. Now onto the 360. For this type of game its obvious the 360 would have a harder time selling it then the Ps3 would (Example pre-order charts even with the 360 being 9 million ahead). Now... lets sey it would sell like 300k... obviously 400 + 300k > 600k. but this is the type of game that the people who would buy it on the 360 would buy it on the ps3 and vice versa pending exclusitivity... so if the Ps3 would have sold 400k with it being exclusive that means people now don't need to by a ps3 for it... now that 400k is just split between 2 platforms. The multiplat status just cannibilize which the sales from the different platforms... not the total sales of the game.



Around the Network
jarrod on 08 December 2009
kingofwale said:
jarrod said:
Hus said:
jarrod said:
morenoingrato said:
but ps3 fans are the ff veterans

More PS2 owners upgraded to Wii than PS3.

opinion not fact.

no better then me saying all wii owners are past non gamers aka soccer moms and that sort.

According to NPD, 70% of Wii owners had a PS2.  Even if 100% of PS3 owners had a PS2, 70% of the Wii base is still nearly double that.

simple logic problem.... When A and B are both present, it doesn't mean A is the cause of B. Something you learn in Survey 101 class.

 

Most PS3 owners also own other consoles. Does that mean they "upgraded" to Wii??

My girlfriend has both Wii and PS2, but she plays PS2 more... does that mean she "upgraded" from Wii to PS2?

The context is pretty clearly meant for generational transition, and was comparing just 2 variables.  You can try to muddy/combat that with "logic problems", but it's beside the point really.

Anyway, I can't find the 70% Wii/PS2 figure (UGH! I think if was another GAF-leak) but I did find another relevant reference from the same report...

NPD claimed that only 10% of PS2 owners have a PS3



letsdance on 08 December 2009

Jarrod - You say 2:1 split for FF13? I say more than that. I say FF13 gets 5.5 million sale. 2 mion in Japan. 1 million in Amercias Ps3 and 1 million in others for Ps3. Leaving 360 1.5 million in sales. Closer to (but less then) 3:1 split WW.



jarrod on 08 December 2009
letsdance said:
Jarrod - You say 2:1 split for FF13? I say more than that. I say FF13 gets 5.5 million sale. 2 mion in Japan. 1 million in Amercias Ps3 and 1 million in others for Ps3. Leaving 360 1.5 million in sales. Closer to (but less then) 3:1 split WW.

Yeah, 3:1 may be closer.  Japan really tips PS3 insanely.



letsdance on 08 December 2009
Soriku said:
ioi is saying 400k PS3 and 300k 360 week 1 in the preorder charts comments.

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=6130&mp=1

good for him. I still say less then FF12 first week. JRPG's arent as popular and the user base is smaller

Around the Network
De85 on 08 December 2009
letsdance said:

The following is talking about main story games on consoles. (So don't try to bring PSP into this)

I'm going to say FF13 will have the weakest opening sales of all FF games in NA. This will include both 360 and Ps3 sales. I think it's going to get half the sales of the lowest selling FF game in NA. The only FF game VGC has weekly sales for though is FF12... so let's go with half of those sales. FF12 FW is 572k so that would put FF13 FW at about 286k

FF12 FW > FF13 FW Ps3 + 360.

This game will not reach 10 million... I don't think it will reach 6 million. One thing is on it's side though. The game has 2 consoles to see legs on.

My break down according to pre-order numbers.

14 Final Fantasy XIII PS3          28,458      1,911 13
23 Final Fantasy XIII X360          18,767      1,078 13

So far its only selling about 3k weekly and has only about 47k total so far.

If sales remain consistent (which I don't think they will but I'll get into that eventually) then preorders will be about 86k. I think ioi said the rule of thumb for FW is preorders times 1.5 for walkins. So if pre-orders remain consistent then FW sales of FF13 would be around 129k. In order to get about 286k FW sales it will need about 190k in preorders. that is another 143k. An average of 11k weekly... well... there is only one game getting those kind of numbers in NA right now and that's GoW. ME2 isn't even getting those numbers and it releases right after the new year. FF13 will need to raise it's weekly sales by about 8k and each week it doesn't do it then that number gets higher.

Even if it raises 1k each week it would look like this.

4k 12 weeks left.
5k 11 weeks left.
6k 10 weeks left.
7k 9 weeks left.
8k 8 weeks left.
9k 7 weeks left.
10k 6 weeks left.
11k 5 weeks left.

So by the time it reaches the average to get half of FF12's sales that it should have now the average will then be 17k a wkk in pre-orders. Even when a release date was announced it still didn't get the average weekly sales it should have gotten.

I think the preoder numbers can and will increase by more than 1k/week as it nears release.  The people who preorder a game several months in advance are an extremely small subset of the entire group of people who will purchase said game.



letsdance on 08 December 2009

Even if it raises 1/3rd weekly itd be like this.

4k
5.3k
7k
9.3k
12k.

it still be tracking low. Now lets see if it even gets that 1k boost next week.
and only one game in NA is getting higher than 12k weekly and that game is suppose to be bigger in NA than FF. Hell... ME is almost as big as FF in NA and its getting lower sales. than 12k. Even if it tripled its sales next week and sold 10k for the following 5 weeks it'd be under ME2 pre-orders on its 7th week which ME 2 is at right now.... And ME2's pre-orders are already tracking lower than FF13 should be at in its 7th week.



silicon on 08 December 2009

This is based off of pre-orders way in advance. This game is going to have a huge advertising budget... and most games are sold because of advertising.

Pre-orders during a holiday season for a game released in March are generally not going to be that great.

I agree that it might not hit 10 million in NA, 6 million combined is possible. It also depends how the game is reviewed.

Another factor could be that a lot of people are just importing it from Japan instead of pre-ordering it. If you were a big enough fan to pre-order it you might import it. Recently there was an article saying it was the number one exported game this gen.



letsdance on 08 December 2009
silicon said:
This is based off of pre-orders way in advance. This game is going to have a huge advertising budget... and most games are sold because of advertising.

Pre-orders during a holiday season for a game released in March are generally not going to be that great.

I agree that it might not hit 10 million in NA, 6 million combined is possible. It also depends how the game is reviewed.

Another factor could be that a lot of people are just importing it from Japan instead of pre-ordering it. If you were a big enough fan to pre-order it you might import it. Recently there was an article saying it was the number one exported game this gen.


its based off a lot more than that. Its based off of GoW pre-orders. ME2 pre-orders. BFBC pre-orders. Ps3 SW sales. Ps3 beating 360 in sales of the game. JRPGs not being as popular. HW sales not as high as Ps2...



Rei on 08 December 2009

If vgchartz' pre-order numbers are correct then I say the game is in trouble. Not only it is going to underperform in Japan but also in North America.

But since I do not trust vgchartz' numbers anymore I'am still expecting the game to do well.

FF games LTD in USA (NPD):

FFVII - 2.40m, FFVIII - 1.90m, FFIX - 1.31m, FFX - 2.46m, FFXII - 1.91m

So for about ten years the sales of mainline FF games in US were pretty consistent, more consistent than they are in Japan, actually.

Still, I say there is a possibility that FFXIII will fail in the West. Not because of vgchartz' pre-order numbers but because there seem to be a general disinterest in the franchise and home console jRPGs this gen.