| letsdance said: The following is talking about main story games on consoles. (So don't try to bring PSP into this) I'm going to say FF13 will have the weakest opening sales of all FF games in NA. This will include both 360 and Ps3 sales. I think it's going to get half the sales of the lowest selling FF game in NA. The only FF game VGC has weekly sales for though is FF12... so let's go with half of those sales. FF12 FW is 572k so that would put FF13 FW at about 286k FF12 FW > FF13 FW Ps3 + 360. This game will not reach 10 million... I don't think it will reach 6 million. One thing is on it's side though. The game has 2 consoles to see legs on. My break down according to pre-order numbers.
So far its only selling about 3k weekly and has only about 47k total so far. If sales remain consistent (which I don't think they will but I'll get into that eventually) then preorders will be about 86k. I think ioi said the rule of thumb for FW is preorders times 1.5 for walkins. So if pre-orders remain consistent then FW sales of FF13 would be around 129k. In order to get about 286k FW sales it will need about 190k in preorders. that is another 143k. An average of 11k weekly... well... there is only one game getting those kind of numbers in NA right now and that's GoW. ME2 isn't even getting those numbers and it releases right after the new year. FF13 will need to raise it's weekly sales by about 8k and each week it doesn't do it then that number gets higher. Even if it raises 1k each week it would look like this. 4k 12 weeks left. |
I think the preoder numbers can and will increase by more than 1k/week as it nears release. The people who preorder a game several months in advance are an extremely small subset of the entire group of people who will purchase said game.
