This is based off of pre-orders way in advance. This game is going to have a huge advertising budget... and most games are sold because of advertising.
Pre-orders during a holiday season for a game released in March are generally not going to be that great.
I agree that it might not hit 10 million in NA, 6 million combined is possible. It also depends how the game is reviewed.
Another factor could be that a lot of people are just importing it from Japan instead of pre-ordering it. If you were a big enough fan to pre-order it you might import it. Recently there was an article saying it was the number one exported game this gen.







