Reasonable said:
jarrod said: I think there's issues of scale here. Frankly it doesn't make sense to me when someone says Halo Reach won't be a "system seller", then in the next breath say FFXIII will be a "sysetm seller" in Japan when the reality is FFXIII's JP hardware bump will probably be less than Reach's US hardware bump.
Microsoft has a lot of unknowns next year in Natal, and games like Alan Wake. 360's pretty well established so it's easy to assume people who want games like Halo, Crackdown, Mass Effect, Splinter Cell or Fable sequels already have the system, but then I'd counter that extremely rare you have one game that can singularly drive hardware significantly anyway. On 360, I'd say Halo 3 did it. On Wii there was Wii Sports, Wii Fit and now probably NSMBWii. I don't think PS3's ever really had one, though GT5 looks like it could come closest to that level (but still isn't a sure thing). DS had a few (Nintendogs, Brain-Age, NSMB, Pokemon), PSP didn't.
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I think it's highly unlikely Reach will produce a larger spike in US than FF in Japan. There has been no FF title at all on PS3 in Japan, therefore the spike is going to be large, whereas Halo 3 has already released on 360, so it is very likely the spike for Reach is going to be modest at best (based on historic performance).
That's why you're seeing the comments your are. Unknowns are just that, unknowns. You're guessing when trying to figure out what will happen. Known titles you can look at the history.
In the end, only PS3 has major franchises still to make a major bow on the system, FF and GT5, all known major 360 franchises have already had a title released.
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Japan already got the FFXIII demo with ACCFFVII BD, and that even got a PS3 hardware bundle last April (which already spiked sales). No, it's not a full game, but then it's not like all the people who're buying FFXIII will be buying a PS3 alongside it, many already have one. The scale of FFXIII's bump isn't going to be that huge either, the holidays and slim are pushing more units that FFXIII will be. It'll maybe be a 80-100k bump on top of that.
Likewise, we had already GT5 Prologue. Again, not the same as a dedicated full release, but Sony's definitely been teasing the game so long with Prologue and updates that a good amount of series faithful likely already bought the platform. I guess it's maybe semantics, in a way both series HAVE pushed hardware sales even if those sales won't come alongside the games. Though then we can sort of apply that logic to the 360 sequels too, they're helping reinforce sales and awareness.
I sort of view GT5 and FFXIII the same way I view Other M or the new Zelda... technically the series was released on the platform earlier, but this is the first full "real" game in the series made for the console.