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Forums - Sales Discussion - Outline of the console war

TheSource on 27 March 2007

Here is how I see the market evolving throughout this generation...this is an enormous post. Next Generation I. Americas - 2005 A. Xbox 360 launches one year before Wii and PS3. B. 360 is the 7th best selling hardware (behind PS2, GBA, PSP, DS, Xbox, GC) C. Over 600,000 are sold, with Call of Duty 2 selling near 1:1 with the system D. PS2 is the primary system for developers with DS, GBA, and PSP splitting portables II. Americas - 2006 A. Wii/PS3 launch. Through Nov 17, 360 has sold roughly 3.5 million in the Americas B. In November-December sales for the three consoles are: 1) 360 - 1.90 million sold 2) Wii - 1.25 million sold 3) PS3 - .75 million sold C. In 2006 sales go DS>PS2>360>GBA>PSP>Wii>GC>PS3>Xbox>PS1 D. Two next-gen games make it on the top 10 (not including Wii Sports) E. DS and PS2 dominate software and hardware sales III. Americas - 2007 (Jan-Feb NPD, plus predictions) A. Wii sales - 300,000 to 700,000 from January to October B. PS3 sales - 125,000 to 350,000 from January to October C. Xbox 360 sales - 175,000 to 550,000 from January to October D. Highest non-holiday months 1) Wii - Smash Brothers month, Galaxy month (assumes both released pre Nov 1) 2) PS3 - January, GTA month 3) 360 - September (GTA and Halo 3?) E. Holiday sales (Nov-December) 1) Xbox 360 - 2.5 million (800,000 Nov, 1.7 million Dec) 2) Nintendo Wii - 2.0 million (650,000 Nov, 1.35 million Dec) 3) Playstation 3 - 1.3 million (500,000 Nov, 800,000 Dec) F. Next Gen games to sell to 20%+ of userbase in Americas (500k to 5 million...): 360 - Halo 3, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon, Madden, Too Human, Bioshock, GTA, Assassin's Creed Wii - Galaxy, Brawl, DDR, GH3, My Sims, Wii Health, Brain Academy, Paper Mario, Pokemon, RE PS3 - GTA, Madden, Assassin's Creed, Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, RE G. Hardware sales for the year: 1) DS>Wii>PSP>360>PS2>GBA>PS3>GC>Xbox H. Peaking into 2008: DS, PSP, 360 I. Dying into 2008: GBA, PS2 J. Dead as a doornail in 2008: GC, Xbox K. Rising into 2008: Wii L. Steady into 2008: PS3 IV. Americas 2008 A. Hardware: Wii>DS>360>PSP>PS3>PS2>GBA B. Wii gets within 2 million of 360 C. All three consoles reach 10 million sold in the Americas by end of the year V. Post 2008 A. 360 wins Americas, Wii comes in close 2nd, PS3 more distant third. B. LTD 360 - 30 million, Wii 28 million, PS3 21 million I. Japan 2005 A. 360 launches, but the country ignores it. B. Industry observers watch with fascination as the DS alone begins to beat Sony C. With the DS rising, and PS2 dying, developers begin to take note of changes D. With a year to take advantage of the chaos in transition 360 wants a niche. E. Hardware sales: DS>PSP>PS2>GBA>GC>360>Xbox>PS1 II Japan 2006 A. The DS turns into a monster, inhaling the support of Japanese developers. B. DS outsells all other consoles at least 4:1. C. With DS taking away its support, console market is stagnant until Nov/Dec D. Hardware sales: DS>PSP>PS2>Wii>PS3>GBA>360>GC>Xbox E. Wii outsells PS3 2:1. Wii is driven by two killer apps, PS3 seems to have zero F. Blue Dragon pushes 360 sales to near PS3 levels over the holidays G. With Wii at about 1 million at year end, developers begin supporting it more. H. 8 of the 11 games to sell 1 million copies are made by Nintendo, for the DS I. To the casual eye it seems Nintendo stole the industry back from Sony III Japan 2007 A. DS continues to have the unbridled support of Nintendo and now 3rd parties B. Until either PSP, Wii, or PS3 sales reach 5 million, developers support DS most. C. Both Wii and PSP hit 5 million in 2007, giving developers more options for $ D. PS3 does not hit 2 million in 2007. E. Games to sell over 1 million copies: 1) Dragon Quest IX (DS) 4,000,000 2) Big Brain Academy (Wii) 2,000,000 3) Wii Sports (Wii) 1,700,000 4) Super Smash Brothers Brawl (Wii) 1,600,000 5) Big Brain Training 2 (DS) 1,450,000 6) Wii Sports (Wii) - 1,400,000 7) Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (PSP) 1,350,000 8) Wii Health (Wii) - 1,300,000 9) Wii Play (Wii) 1,250,000 10) Wii Play (Wii) - 1,200,000 11) Super Paper Mario (Wii) 1,150,000 12) Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 1,050,000 13) New Super Mario Brothers (DS) 1,000,000 F. Hardware sales: DS>Wii>PSP>PS3>PS2>360 (GC, Xbox, GBA irrelevant) G. Enormous DQIX sales send shockwaves through the industry resulting in: 1) Increased DS support by 3rd parties as Nintendo itself focuses on Wii 2) Square-Enix announcing more support for DS, PSP/Wii 3) Namco & Capcom focusing on the west for disliking the DS/Wii direction until... H. Capcom & Namco discover that their Microsoft products sell well, but PS3 products: 1) Don't have enough users to draw from 2) Are not dominant in any market, leading to eventual support of Wii for Jap $.. I. Nintendo and smaller developers (think Level 5) announce record profits 1) The pattern goes full cycle: 1983-1994 Nintendo ruled Japan 2) 1994-2005 Sony ruled Japan 3) 2006- Nintendo rules Japan... J. Heading into 2008... 1) Wii is rising, DS is rising, PS3 is rising 2) PSP is peaking, 360 is peaking 3) PS2 is dying, GC/GBA/Xbox are waaay dead IV. 2008 and on to the end of the generation... A. LTD Hardware: Wii - 20 million, PS3 - 7 million, 360 - 750,000 B. DS - 35 million, PSP - 10 million (5 million users own both) I. Others - 2005 A. 360 launches, selling best in the UK. Around 400,000 are sold in 2005. B. Supply constraints damage Microsoft's potential against the strength of the PS2 C. Many choose to wait until more compelling software arrives, or until their systems run out great new content...especially since many love simple games like Singstar on PS2 II. Others - 2006 A. PS3 is delayed, Wii sells 800,000 consoles in December. B. Nintendo and Microsoft are able to make significant inroads before PS3 launches C. PS2 finally begins to decline, with the DS starting to dominate as it has in Japan. D. The market is.. muddled, because some support Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft most III. Others - 2007 A. Hardware: DS>Wii>PSP>PS3>360>PS2>GBA>GC>Xbox B. Nintendo and Sony knock down Microsoft's majority quickly 1) With strong pushes, the market splits in thirds by December... 2) Nintendo wins the holiday 3) However, for most of the year Sony has the most supply, so they make inroads IV. 2008 A. Nintendo passes Microsoft midyear. B. Sony catches, but never passes Microsoft at the end of the year, winning x-mas... V Post 08' A. LTD - Wii - 18 million, PS3 - 16 million, 360 - 15 million Final LTD Worldwide: Wii - 66 million (estimated range: 55-75 million) 360 - 46 million (estimated range: 35-55 million) PS3 - 44 million (estimated range: 30-50 million)



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OriGin on 27 March 2007

I like your posts and i'm going to try and brave my way through this one, but dude... we need some double enters to break that up a bit!!!! :P



Bubbles on 27 March 2007

Not bad, im thinking tho the end japanese sales of the ps3 might be slightly higher.



jmcoo7 on 27 March 2007

RolStoppable said: I see final LTD sales as this: Wii - 110+ millions Xbox360 - 25-35 millions PS3 - 10-20 millions Reasons for those predictions are: Wii has great momentum (which probably won't die down until in a few years, just compare it to DS momentum), attractive price and value, getting the most 3rd party support and the great games of Nintendo. Xbox360 won't reach a much bigger audience as the first Xbox due to its lack in genres and focus on PC-style games and online features. PS3 is the worse 360 in terms of game library and more expensive, developers jump ship and Sony's first party isn't good enough to keep the console alive as Nintendo was able to do with the N64 and the later years of the GC. Also, contrary to these Nintendo consoles Sony isn't profitable with the PS3 in fact they are taking huge losses in the billions range. PS3 will probably be the last in the playstation line, also resulting in that Microsoft will leave the console market because the playstation has been stopped and there's no reason to continue the Xbox franchise which is taking huge losses in the billions range.
Hahahahahahahahahaha !!! Total nonsense .



Proud owner of Ps4/3ds xl/pc/vita/wii u and others.

Gamer till I die

robjoh on 27 March 2007

RolStoppable said: PS3 will probably be the last in the playstation line, also resulting in that Microsoft will leave the console market because the playstation has been stopped and there's no reason to continue the Xbox franchise which is taking huge losses in the billions range.
and pigs can fly? No sorry for that answer but... 1, Sony want leave the market after making tons of money in it before. They might reshape the strategy but totally give up no way. (and I am a nintendo fan) 2, Microsoft want to win the living room, even if nintendo wins the totally sales they still want to push Vista into the living room.



 

 

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Darc Requiem on 27 March 2007

RolStoppable said: I see final LTD sales as this: Wii - 110+ millions Xbox360 - 25-35 millions PS3 - 10-20 millions Reasons for those predictions are: Wii has great momentum (which probably won't die down until in a few years, just compare it to DS momentum), attractive price and value, getting the most 3rd party support and the great games of Nintendo. Xbox360 won't reach a much bigger audience as the first Xbox due to its lack in genres and focus on PC-style games and online features. Did you look at the release list for the 360 before you made that statement? I'm not inclined to think so based on the above statement. The 360 has the most RPGs right now and for the foreseeable future (i.e. next 12 months). PS3 is the worse 360 in terms of game library and more expensive, developers jump ship and Sony's first party isn't good enough to keep the console alive as Nintendo was able to do with the N64 and the later years of the GC. Also, contrary to these Nintendo consoles Sony isn't profitable with the PS3 in fact they are taking huge losses in the billions range. With the developers jumping ship from PS3 to 360, why would it be full of PC-style games? You've contradicted yourself. PS3 will probably be the last in the playstation line, also resulting in that Microsoft will leave the console market because the playstation has been stopped and there's no reason to continue the Xbox franchise which is taking huge losses in the billions range. Sony has had too much success in the video game industry to just throw in the towel. Sony has too much invested in the games industry to just give up. Videogames is a huge part of Sony as a whole and 40% of their revenue and a majority of their profits come from video games. It would be difficult for them to leave the industry and still have a viable company left. Microsoft will at least double the original X-box's userbase with the 360. They aren't going anywhere. Yes Sony has faltered, but that gives them more of a reason to continue in the industry. Especially since, Sony's failings have netted MS more support in the industry.



souixan on 27 March 2007

I have to say, I don't see anybody pulling away except in the situation where Wii becomes the "also sold" system. In which case I'd see Wii nearly doubling the next closest seller. On realistic terms I see them all selling around 50M units, maybe a bit higher. Usually there is a break away seller but it seems the community is pretty split on this "battle" In another scenario, I see wii as the "also purchased" system with some support from the casual crowd due to the price point. Where for nearly every 360 you'll find a Wii or nearly every PS3 you'll find a Wii in every home with a minority having only 1 or all 3. The reason I say this is PS3/360 are basically the same, it's gonna come to preference there, where Wii is different from both and compliments either nicely. While all stand alone quite nicely as well. In this situation I see wii between 60 & 90M and PS3 around 55m as with 360. Just a thought though...



fooflexible on 27 March 2007

To be honest I have yet to make a single prediction in this generation of consoles simply because I have no clue. Could the ps3 come back strong? Maybe. Can the X360 start selling in Japan? Possible, but unlikely, but they do have some great titles, and maybe with some better marketing it's a possibility. will people get tired of the Wii? Maybe, or maybe it'll even get bigger. I really don't know. Although I will say as a whole I think the market will grow larger. I have nongaming friends that are now interested in the Wii do to the gameplay. And I have friends who are now interested in the x360/ps3 due to amazing graphics. We're starting to get gameplay experiences that were not possible last generation. Next generation the gaming population will age, they'll be an even wider range of gamers, and they'll be even more possible with the technology. I think we're getting to a point where all three console makers can stay successful.



johnlucas on 27 March 2007

RolStoppable said: I see final LTD sales as this: Wii - 110+ millions Xbox360 - 25-35 millions PS3 - 10-20 millions Reasons for those predictions are: Wii has great momentum (which probably won't die down until in a few years, just compare it to DS momentum), attractive price and value, getting the most 3rd party support and the great games of Nintendo. Xbox360 won't reach a much bigger audience as the first Xbox due to its lack in genres and focus on PC-style games and online features. PS3 is the worse 360 in terms of game library and more expensive, developers jump ship and Sony's first party isn't good enough to keep the console alive as Nintendo was able to do with the N64 and the later years of the GC. Also, contrary to these Nintendo consoles Sony isn't profitable with the PS3 in fact they are taking huge losses in the billions range. PS3 will probably be the last in the playstation line, also resulting in that Microsoft will leave the console market because the playstation has been stopped and there's no reason to continue the Xbox franchise which is taking huge losses in the billions range.
My sentiments almost EXACTLY. I made calls on this race in 2005 BEFORE ALL the systems launched. One oversight in the prediction was not foreseeing Sony's self-sabotage in the coming year. Who could have seen that coming?! (Quote from my old prediction: "Sony will lose marketshare DEFINITELY this time around. They will be strong & they are not pushovers but they will lose some of that dominance this time.") But that aside my prediction still stands & seems to be coming true just like I foretold. Not giving exact numbers but just placements & reasons why. From the newsgroups dated November 5, 2005 (originally posted in a Joystiq.com message board in late October): Future of Next-Generation of Gaming Be sure to click the "read more" link at the end. The post was truncated due to its size. Also read the commentaries from other posters & my replies to them. I love to look back on this and see how wrong people were. Mostly everybody snarked at me when I put that down. Modify this prediction adding in Sony's sabotage by saying if XBox 360 succeeds in vampiring Sony's base with their aggressive tactics & exclusive steals, Sony's PS3 may not survive out of the year 2009. Of course my recent Wii predictions still stand & judging from this week figures update with XBox 360 *still* in 9 million range at 9.77 & Wii moving up from 6.03 to 6.25 in one week I'd say the posters doubting me on this will end up like those guys who snarked on me in that old newsgroup post. •Wii catches AND *SURPASSES* XBox 360 in Worldwide sales THIS SUMMER—specificially within the month of July (July 1-July 31) •Wii catches AND *SURPASSES* XBox 360 in Americas sales THIS SUMMER—ALSO specifically within the month of July (July 1-July 31) •Wii will have sold AT LEAST *20 Million* units Worldwide by December 31, 2007, 11:59 PM AKA the end of the year •Wii will go on to DOMINATE the 7th Gen going on to becoming the GREATEST-SELLING console Worldwide of ALL-TIME even surpassing the mighty Playstation 2 And for those who can't get enough of my predictions, check out THIS controversial one. NOBODY believes me on this one but I guaran-doggone-tee you it's coming true. "Controversy!! Metal Gear Solid 4 will NOT go to the Playstation 3" I originally made this prediction in late September of last year & brought it to Popzart last December. Have fun! John Lucas



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Erik Aston on 27 March 2007

•Wii catches AND *SURPASSES* XBox 360 in Americas sales THIS SUMMER—ALSO specifically within the month of July (July 1-July 31) Honestly, that's retarded. Nintendo won't ship that many units. My predictions... XBox360 will be passed by Wii in Europe in 2007, but keep the crown in North America until 2008, due to slightly besting Wii over the period Sept-Dec07(though there will be Wii shortages in that time). However, it will also become clear in 2008 that North America will be the only area 360 will sell 20million units, as it didn't gain momentum quickly enough before the Wii storm in Europe. 360 produces nice profits in spurts, but MS keeps needing to drop hardware price, drop XBL subscription price, shell out cash to 2nd and 3rd party devs for key exclusives, etc., which means it moves back into the red repeatedly. The console gets a good 7 year run, as Moore stops trying to compete and just focuses on profitability over the last 2 years of the cycle, to buy himself a shot at XBox3. After studying Nintendo, a more feature-lite XBox3 is launched with the intent to achieve and sustain profitability within 6 months. Wii will keep selling above PS2 rates for its entire lifetime, due to its lower price, higher appeal, and a library that eclipses 4,000 games, thanks to the VC. The system continues to have spot shortages right into 2008, until Nintendo approach the staggering rate of 30 million systems a year. In Japan, Wii won't quite match the DS explosion, but it will still move across the 30 million mark, and in NA, just as PSone was the first system to hit 40m sales and PS2 looks poised to hit 50m sometime in 2008, Wii will be the first system to hit 60m in NA alone. Wii will also become the best-selling system of all time in Europe, but won't really tap the territory as much as possible. Though it will pass end PS2 sales during its 7 year run, its attach rate of physical media will be substantially lower... Including VC games, it will be higher. PS3 will find it can't sell 20m even in NA. It will only sell well in Japan during major game releases, but even games like MGS4 and FF13 will end up with shockingly low sales. The high price of the system will kill Sony's continued attempts to broaden the gaming market into Eastern Europe, Russia, the Middle East, South America and Africa, as well as stunting the system in Western Europe significantly. The system constantly has a hard time developing any momentum, as 360 and Wii beat it to price cuts and strip it of practically all major franchises by 2009. Sony keeps increasing its internal software R&D, keeps shelling out more and more money for lesser and lesser exclusives, and keeps lowering the price dangerously fast. They bleed billions for the whole generation. Heads. Roll. Most significantly, Ken Kutaragi resigns, taking his seat next to Bushnell and Yamauchi. Sony goes headhunting to rebuild their videogame division from scratch, and they come back with a new system—with a new name! Final sales (I revise these numbers all the time... They are merely my best guess at this exact second…) #3. PlayStation3 Japan- 6 million North America- 16 million Europe/Others- 12 million Total- 34 million #2. XBox 360 Japan- 1 million North America- 28 million Europe/Others- 17 million Total- 46 million #1. Wii Japan- 32 million North America- 63 million Europe/Others- 55 million Total- 150 million



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